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Opinion: Lumia Devices WILL get WP8/Apollo

| April 21, 2012 | 128 Replies

I honestly wasn’t planning on posting this here as it has no basis and is just speculations which is why I wrote it up on my side-project blog; but once I saw that Jay posted a bunch of rumors together I decided to hell with it let’s join in on the fun.

The whole basis of my assumption relies on one basic factor: “BT transfer”. Currently Bluetooth on WP 7.5 devices is almost useless beyond headset/car pairing and pairing to PC (not even sure if that’s possible); so why on earth would Nokia bother implementing NFC into the Lumia 610?

Let’s dig a little deeper, the current build of WP doesn’t even support NFC (which was the excuse used when Nokia was asked why it was excluded from the lumia 800); so why would you put something in a device if you can’t even use it? Short answer- because it will soon enough. Recently Stephen Elop went on record saying that one of the features to come along with WP8 is the ability to send V-Cards via BT (a perfect use of NFC- “tap to send V-Card”). At this point I’d like to point out that the C7 also had an NFC chip that was disabled until Symbian Anna supported it; so it wouldn’t be the first time that Nokia implemented technology that isn’t fully supported in a device with plans to activate/support it in a future update.

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The last piece of “evidence” is the interesting timing of the NFC-Lumia announcement; if your going to make a modified version of a device shouldn’t you wait till the first version hit’s the stores at least?? Further more why not announce it at MWC which was less than a month before the 610 NFC announcement (which was also surprisingly pretty quiet). My thought on the matter is that they had a NFC 610 up and running but weren’t sure if it would run Apollo/WP8 but once they got the thumbs up from MSFT that it could support it (maybe there were questions about the lower RAM capabilities? or possibly MSFT had’t given them the complete requirements for WP8?) either way it does deserve the question to be asked, could it be that the 610 can run WP8.

Also just a reminder NFC support was one of the “leaked” features of WP8:

Support for microSD cards is also added, along with NFC support. The latter will work either via NFC built inside a smartphone or via NFC enabled SIM cards.- VIA

NFC and Wallet. Windows Phone 8 will allow users to securely pay and share via NFC and manage an integrated Wallet experience-VIA

And if the 610 can really run Apollo then by default that should mean that all other Lumia phones should run it too (considering that the 610 is the only one that’s under-powered).

Of course this little tweet just helps strengthen my case:

@MS_nerd

Time to drop the biggest effin’  bomb: Nokia & Microsoft are testing a build of Apollo on the Lumia 610. Not ‘performant’ enough. Yet.

Well of course I might be crazy or maybe it’s all the studying getting to me but I’m currently inclined to think that all 2nd gen WP devices will get the thumbs up to apollo. Your Thoughts?

Go ahead and check out my original post here: http://bit.ly/HYpkgw

SOURCE

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Category: Nokia, Symbian, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, my name's Ali- Currently a fifth (and final) year Dental Student from Chicago; studying in Jordan. I love all sorts of gadgets almost as much as I love my cookies! Be sure to follow my Twitter handle @AliQudsi and Subcribe to my Youtube for the latest videos - no pressure. Thanks.
  • meh

    For once I agree with Eldar, most people wont care do they get apollo update or not.

    • Jill

      But the blogosphere in the wild out there do care about it .. which indirectly means the people visiting those blogs .. which indirectly means the people they are in touch with .. which indirectly means the fans of android & iOS .. which indirectly means all the haters of windows phone out there !

    • JudaZuk

      I prefer to agree with most people, and don’t care about anything Eldar makes up anymore

      Perez Hilton is more relevant then Eldar ‘the liar’ Mutazin

      • Arun

        Eldar lost his credibility long ago. forget him. I’m worried about wp8 though. If they really want to kill symbian, and make WP their prime os, it MUST have
        -mass storage mode,
        -bluetooth file transfer,
        -usb host,
        -codec support and full hd video playback
        -proper file management,
        -FULL multitasking support.

        For gods sake, most of these things existed and worked pretty well in windows mobile 6.5… why did they remove them? “less is more” ? simply careless.. I really hope MS makes things better with Apollo.

        • migo

          How stable was Windows Mobile 6.5? It didn’t crash as much as Symbian, but it still would crash. Windows Phone doesn’t crash at all, just individual apps sometimes crash.

          I don’t care if the next version gets all of it, or just some of it. A gradual addition of features and tweaks is fine, it doesn’t need to get a whole load dumped on it. If it gets all the features but loses the stability then it’s practically no different from Android.

          • dansus

            That was in the days of slow processors and small ram, different world now.

            • migo

              Android crashes the same way. It’s not just the CPU, although the RAM is a factor when you have real multitasking.

          • keizka

            You •can• get wp to crash, it just requires very interesting conditions for it to happen (has happened occasionally happened to me on LG E900)

    • Saul

      LOL Eldar….
      It’s funny that many people still think he’s credible or even competent technically.
      But yes he is more-or-less right in this instance…
      There’s no doubt it’ll have an impact if it doesn’t come to older devices.
      But I doubt it’d be huge blow to MS/Nok’s LT plans…

  • Prashant

    Not a promising theory bt transfers and nfc support cud also come in tango,
    if there cud be 500 plus improvements and features in mango then tango cud also go for 200 plus improvements and features.

  • incognito

    Well, everything is a speculation at this point, but from the times I closely followed the Microsoft world (and I still do, as much as I can handle the community mentality *whistle*), Paul Thurrott had quite credible sources and far more hits than misses, so when he says that he *knows for a fact* – without leaving a single escape window from that claim – I kind of tend to believe him.

    MS_nerd, has far more misses than hits, at least based on what the Microsoft-oriented community claims – I haven’t followed him so I can’t make my own mind on his credibility.

    All that plus the deafening silence from Microsoft in my mind sets the probability of WP8 not appearing on the existing devices in high ninety percentages.

    Still, what I’ve heard from my own ‘sources’ – Apollo either isn’t WP8, or WP8 isn’t what the blogosphere made out of it – it might be an upgrade quite the same kind of Mango, in which case the upgradeability of current devices should be granted.

    So, to reiterate my thoughts – if the next major version is a wholesome switch from WinCE to MinWin – I’m almost 100% sure the current devices won’t be updated. If it isn’t, I’m confident the current devices will get updates, at least partial.

    • Sergio

      Actually Paul hasn’t been really accurate concerning WP stuff…

      • incognito

        Apart from the possible Mango delay (where he said on multiple occasions that it is just a possibility) he didn’t really state anything wrong. Certainly nothing with certainty as with his latest post on WP8 updates.

    • Mark

      Agree. It’s more likely to be a hybrid build incorporating the features in WP8 that the current platform can support.

    • Janne

      I think incognitos thoughts on this sound very plausible. I appreciate them.

  • Guest

    I don’t think current phones will get apollo.
    Apollo will use the nt kernel and should requare heavier hardware.
    The 610 will use an nfc stack developed by nokia not an official microsoft WP nfc stack.
    The evegalist that made the statement that all phones will get apollo have oficially redrawed that statement.
    I think that it’s better to asume that current WP phones won’t get apollo until Microsoft officially states otherwise.
    All Microsoft has ever stated is that current WP applications will work on apollo, they even never said that apollo apps will work on WP7.5.
    So there is no reson to even asume that current lumia phones will ever get apollo.

    • Guest
    • migo

      You’re wrong about requiring heavier hardware. Windows 8 runs at the low end on a single core CPU with 512MB RAM, which is already what first gen WP phones had. Also keep in mind WP phones don’t need to emulate Windows 7, so the system requirements will be even lower.

      Now 256MB might be just too low – that’s cutting it down even further, but based on performance capabilities, the Lumia 710, 800 and 900 can run it.

  • dss

    The only way to approach this is to get the 808 or the N9, and then wait for the drama to unfold. There is no reason to buy a WP7 device right now, they are missing a lot of functionality, and you have no idea if you are going to get wp8.. that is if you care about any of the missing functionality from Wp7, it seems that a lot of people here in the US don’t :)

  • AM

    Sorry, not gonna happen. Heard from a very trusted source in Espoo.

    • dsmobile

      There is no apollo update for WP7.5 devices. They only get some updates but it’s not WP8.

      The End.

      • Rebbe

        But will win 8 apps work on wp 7.5 then? And will ie get a update on older devices? If the answer is yes then I’m fine without the full wp8 “update”…

        Hope the full wp8 experience is amazing, worth sacrificing the current (relatively small) group of wp users, beta testers. :D

        • noki

          “But will win 8 apps work on wp 7.5?” probably not.

        • dansus

          No.

        • migo

          No, the insurance for WP7.5 users is that WP7.5 apps will work on Windows 8, so if devs want the widest audience and the Silverlight and XNA4 APIs cover the app needs, they’ll design for 7.5. If they need the new APIs, then it’ll be WP8 only.

      • http://www.psyzone.co.in Bhairav Pardiwala

        For ms

      • Viipottaja

        I thought you said there would be no updates to mango at all. What changed your mind?

  • Zipa

    I’m not sure that I follow your logic. The Lumia 610NFC has a custom made-by-nokia NFC stack that is bolted on the WP7.5 Refresh comms stack. I don’t see how that would imply that it is upgradeable to WP8?

  • Ebon & Unicorn N9s

    BT & NFC can be done in a feature update for the current WP devices.. No need to for the entire Apollo\WP8 release..

  • ummNo

    Bs i say. Nokia knew from the beginning what wp8 will be and what it wont be. Nokia is betting (and always was) everything on wp8 NOT on wp7.5. I bet that it was MS that tequired Nokia to start their support from wp7.5.

    • migo

      Not likely, Nokia just needed to get going on it as fast as possible.

      • mdev

        Wrong too. Elop and MS needed Nokia to kill everything and focus on WP as soon as possible. Nokia “needed” this as much as I need cancer.

        • migo

          Symbian was cancer. It needed to be killed as fast as possible. It needed to be killed years ago. It’s good Elop did that. If OPK had done it, and hadn’t killed Maemo by merging it with Moblin to make the disaster that was MeeGo, then Maemo would have been a viable replacement for Symbian.

          • yasu

            The uninterrupted stream of bad financial news that hit Nokia since the very day WP was announced at Nokia would agree with mdev.

            • migo

              There was plenty of bad financial news before that as well. Ever since the iPhone 3G really.

          • mdev

            To continue to use this analogy, let’s assume that you are right and Symbian was a lung cancer. So Elop decided that Nokia can live without lungs until Microsoft learns how to breathe without lungs and teaches Nokia how to do it.

            • migo

              That’s not how it works, I won’t bother continuing the analogy if you don’t understand cancer.

  • http://dani2xll.com dani2xll

    I did write this yesterday for Ali’s site but for some reason I can’t post there. I am sure he has banned his biggest fan from posting :-) So I will post it here. Hopefully, it still applies.

    Nokia has been quick to squash certain rumours or to clarify things of late, but they have been particularly silent about WP8 for present Lumia devices. It is very unlikely that they do not know whether it is a viable thing for the present device and so it sends ripples through the industry by its ongoing silence.

    Yes, I am aware that normally when you buy a phone, for example HTC or iPhone, that you are not asking whether you will get the next update as its known that for quite an extensive time, this is available.

    But by Nokia records, people are familiar with the old method of symbian devices, with a new handset arriving three months later with a new feature pack and it not being available for your device which is a few months old or the variants in devices of the media range and non media range which were just a difference of software which most geeks managed to overcome. Then followed the Maemo and now the Meego and the ‘burning’ of symbian.

    All these things do not install confidence in customers and perhaps play a part as to why Nokia is in the position it is in at the moment.

    But to move forward, they need to not make the mistakes of the past. It would be a dire situation if they were to lose a potential growth market in America because of WP8.

    I do hope that WP8 does come to us Lumia owners.

    When I buy the Nokia 808 PureView, I know it is a ‘dead’ device in terms of os but as it is not my major phone, nor am I buying it for its os purposes it is not so much of a dilemma.

    But for someone who buys a Lumia as his or her number one smartphone they need to know that they are not buying an os with restriction and without a decent shelf-life.

    • Aliqudsi

      Dammit you seem to have found a way past my filters-

      Regardless I’ll have to respond :D

      Your 100& right about both points, the first case being that rather than squash/deny the rumors Nokia India sort of confirmed them on twitter (Can’t be bothered to find the tweet but I’m sure you’ve seen it).

      The second point is as you said if I’m going to choose the Lumia over the N9 or the 808 it’s because it has a Future and I expect it to have one else the whole new strategy has no point; so I actually think updates or at least continued support is a customers right rather than an optional generosity from the phone maker. (At the very least even if they DONT get apollo at least some sort of constant support to keep them relevant- like Belle & it’s feature packs on symbian but without the huge time period).

      • capedonut

        Apparently the next gen low end wp8 handsets will be more powerful and cheaper than the 800′s and 900′s of today, else it would make no sense with the assumed updating policy

      • Hary

        Ali, I think your assumption may be flawed here. It’s a good guess, but based on available information, it doesn’t make sense.

        I can’t find the article about 610NFC, but I read earlier that the NFC software has been made by Nokia and some other third-party company since MS hasn’t included that feature in Mango&Tango.
        There was a quote from the third-party company implying that they had to write the software to overcome MS’s shortcoming in current OS.

        So, I don’t think 610 NFC is related to WP8/Apollo.
        I will try to find that article.

      • Hary

        Ok,found the article. It’s InsideSecure that has provided the NFC tech for 610. I bet, they couldn’t do it for L800/900 since those were already in production before they could have worked out the NFC details. Hence 610 is getting it and not 800/900.

        http://wmpoweruser.com/inside-secure-provides-nfc-tech-in-nokia-lumia-610-nfc/

    • lordstar

      With 808 pureview i believe you’ll be getting 2 more updates.. Belle fp2 and possibly Nokia Carla. So i guess there will still be improvements to come your way should you decide to get the device.

      Nokia should clarify things soon with apollo and current lumia devices.

  • npo4

    It makes sense that there will be an Apollo, or at least some sort of Apollo lite on the 610.

    I’m personally waiting for the WP8 Lumia’s to come out before upgrading, as WP8 will support much more advanced hardware, so hopefully we can see faster processors and higher screen resolutions.

  • kan

    SD -card support like removable battery is way over rated. Bump up the memory it’s cheap.

    BT transfer is more useful but not for sharing data.

    Better codec support for vidoes.

    Break the link with zune desktop.

    If as it seems WP8 Phone is built on a new kernel upgrading phones on WP7 is not straightforward. Can Zune even handle this?

    If there is an upgrade path I think the best way would be to do it via a one time self containted package. Then a new version of Zune to work with WP8.

    When you move to a total new codebase best to leave all links to the old one.

    • migo

      I agree on the SD card. It’s not that big of a deal.

      I expect BT features will slowly get expanded, file transfer might be important in some regions though.

      Yeah, I’m not sure the odds of that happening. I think MS might want to keep pushing .wma and .wmv formats.

      Oh please let this happen, probably possible with the MinWin kernel as Windows handles its own updates.

  • ejvictor

    More bad news for Microsoft –Nokia

    Lumia Dead end devices!

    Thurrott forced a contact with Microsoft to reveal this info and has three reasons why it won’t be happening. First, the economics aren’t worth it. The current Windows Phone ecosystem is pretty small, and will probably have fewer than 20 million handsets sold by the time Windows Phone 8 is planned to launch.

    http://www.phonearena.com/news/Paul-Thurrott-confirms-no-Windows-Phone-8-for-any-current-handsets_id29342

    • mdev

      These reasons are more indicative of the level of MS “commitment” to its current customers than anython else. Samsung has bada as its pet project and it still made sure that the very different bada 2.0 run on all old devices (except the ones with 300 MHz CPU) despite having sales just 2 times that of WP as numbers and probably no more than 50% more as money (bada ASP is lower).

      WP is the only mobile effort of Microsoft and it should have been much more committed to it than Samsung is to bada. But this is MS for you.

  • s2korpio

    I dont think the non-tech savvy population would care if they ever got the update or not. Seriously, I dont think EVERY iPhone user got giddy with joy when their 3GS got iOS 5.

    Same goes with current Lumia owners. The user experience of Windows Phone is already the best among others, I dont think they’ll complain much if they knew about Windows Phone 8 (does anyone outside the tech scene even KNOW Apollo?).

    My opinion is this: the majority are NOT interested if they are or not having the latest OS version or upgrade or whatever. As long as it makes calls, texts, web surfing, feels great and doesnt disrupt their daily lives, they’re not gonna complain. But if it is true that Gen 2 WP devices will get Apollo, then that’s a great addition.

    I bought the Lumia for what it is NOW, not for what it could’ve become in the future.

    Side note: Paul Thurrott has as much wrong as he is right about Windows Phone. I think he once stated that Mango wouldn’t come to devices by 2012. That was really wrong.

    • dss

      The only difference being that the current Wp7 phones really need some basic functionality. The difference between iOS 4 and iOS 5 was smaller, than the one between wp7 and wp8. So they need to port some of it to the older devices.. Wp 7.6 or whatever they want to call it.

      Nokia did a very good job on the first gen symbian 3 devices, which very much like the current wp7 were lacking in certain areas.. but they got them up to speed with Belle, and there is one more update for this summer. Now.. its not their call anymore, its all Microsoft, they are in control of Nokia.

    • mdev

      Yes, you definitely like Lumia at it is now. However it seems that majority of the customers do not like it so much if we are looking at the only objective indicator: sales.

      A lot more people like Symbian as it is now, but you are not seeing me calling: “Let’s go with Symbian only, because I like it as it is now”.

  • mdev

    It would be funny, if it was not so bad. So, the major new features in WP8/Appolo are BT transfer (of vCards, mind you, not files!!!) and NFC support? In such case WP is finished.

    Now, I know that vCard BT transfer and NFC are not the only and even not the most significant new features in WP8. So, your theory is dead wrong.

  • mdev

    The big problem is the support of native code in WP8. Without it, WP has no chance in hell to succeed.

    With it, it is much harder to port to the older CPU architecture (they must support two versions for all binaries, libraries and so on, which is major PITA).

    C# .Net code from 7.5 will work fine on WP8 but the native apps from WP8 will not work on WP7.5. So the lack of upgrade is not a small problem but as I said the current sales are so small that if they do not pick up dramatically with WP8 it will not matter either way.

    So, sorry early WP adopters, you are the beta-testers.

  • dansus

    Keep dreaming..

    Its not going to happen, time to move on.

  • Kan

    If there is no upgrade path their will be many irate users and a blog like the Verge creaming themselves by providing these maligned users with a platform to criticise MS and Nokia.

    All of the mainstream Tech sites based in the US they are either pro Apple or Pro Google. The only thing they agree on is their hatred of MS.

    • DesR85

      Whether or not current devices get WP 8, all I can tell is that Microsoft is keeping a tight lid on it. Not surprised why because the last time they released details on WP 7.5 months before its actual release, competitors soon start to copy some of its features into their phones as what one WP Central member pointed out.

      I just wished Microsoft release some statement to counter some of the rumours floating around the net lately. Starting to get irritating.

      • incognito

        What would the competition copy from a statement: Microsoft will provide upgrade for the current WP7 devices to WP8? The competition already has upgradeable OSes for at least several generations.

        On a side note – what did the competition copy from the WP 7.5′s features? By any objective merit it still lags behind the competition in pretty much every aspect.

        • DesR85

          “On a side note – what did the competition copy from the WP 7.5′s features? By any objective merit it still lags behind the competition in pretty much every aspect.”

          There were details and screenshots of WP 7.5 posted on preview articles months before its official release, and from that description, get an idea of what features are inside it and eventually copy them. Just guessing here, though.

          From what I’ve seen of copied features so far, the recent Sony Xperia S copied the quick standby to camera feature plus its Facebook and Twitter integration. Even the iPhone 4S have the latter integration if I recall.

          • incognito

            1) You can’t see from screenshots standby-to-camera activation, and I don’t remember leaked videos of Mango

            2) Nokia has had that for ages – you just didn’t use the shutter button, but the lens cover (N95, N900 for sure, there were others as well) which is basically the same thing – I don’t remember ever turning the camera by actually running the app, except on the N900 w/ BlessN900 when I needed it. What’s more Nokia did it better than it is currently implemented in in WP7.5 – once you were done with the camera on the N95, provided you started it by opening the shutter and didn’t do anything apart from taking shots – by closing the shutter the device would return back to stand-by. This allowed for the cool feature of being able to password protect the unlock while still being able to snap pictures without the need to enter it (it also had a side effect, tho – you could explore the gallery without unlocking, don’t know if that bug was ever fixed)

            3) Facebook and Twitter integration – that’s what everybody has now (and I’d like it not to be a part of the OS, which is why I like the way it’s solved on the N900/N9/N950 through Telepathy), even featurephones, you really cannot claim that somebody stole it from somebody else.

            • DesR85

              “2) Nokia has had that for ages – you just didn’t use the shutter button, but the lens cover (N95, N900 for sure, there were others as well) which is basically the same thing – I don’t remember ever turning the camera by actually running the app, except on the N900 w/ BlessN900 when I needed it. What’s more Nokia did it better than it is currently implemented in in WP7.5 – once you were done with the camera on the N95, provided you started it by opening the shutter and didn’t do anything apart from taking shots – by closing the shutter the device would return back to stand-by. This allowed for the cool feature of being able to password protect the unlock while still being able to snap pictures without the need to enter it (it also had a side effect, tho – you could explore the gallery without unlocking, don’t know if that bug was ever fixed)”

              Hmm… didn’t know that. Never did buy any of those phones before and my first phone with a good 5MP camera is the Nokia 6700 Slide, which obviously have no lens cover. I’ll keep that in mind. ;)

  • Cod3rror

    Look guys, no one knows if it’s coming or not, the safest bet is to not buy Lumia phones, just wait till October and that’s it.

    • DelSEA

      Most people buy Android not knowing that they will get upgrade to the next os. I for one think it would be foolish for MS to abandon WP users. The moto is “Put People First”

    • Janne

      I agree with Co3rror, if getting Apollo is a must have for the device you buy, the safe bet is to wait.

      On the other hand, I am enjoying my two Lumias a lot. Waiting would have sucked.

      I buy new phones at least every 12 months anyway (usually more often), like many people nowadays. Less of a problem for people like me.

      • dss

        and all those people that are signing 2 year contracts with ATT ? Beta testers I guess..

        • Janne

          They are getting the product they buy, as always. Again, if getting Apollo *for sure* is mandatory for you, do wait.

          It is not mandatory for all people, and I expect Nokia and AT&T to support the 900 for two years in some capacity.

  • SPAMMER

    There is no any logical reason to buy mobile with crappy Windows system of 0.4% of market share. And when here will be introduced the 3rd Windows and will also incompatible with Windows Mobile and Windows Phone then all that zombie dance will be even more hilarious. And still all this will be cooking itself whitin 0.4% market. Nobody really cares about this. And nobody want to pay for Microsoft “most needed and the newest patches” for not working software. Unneeded. This is next shit only for marketing playground. Nokia is in agony, customers demanding Nokia N9-MeeGo-SymbianBella-Carla, Elop is genius but differently, cirqus of nonsense as usual.

  • Janne

    Here is how I see the situation:

    - Of course nobody here really knows what will happen. All can change.

    - One thing is certain: WP7.5 apps will work on WP8 in all its incarnations. .NET guarantees this and Microsoft has announced it.

    - I think it is looking increasingly likely WP8 will come out in two forms like Eldar (whom I usually don’t listen to anymore for obvious reasons) suggests. It makes sense, if the new kernel can’t come to current phones. One WP8 is with the old kernel, another with a new one for the new phones. They will have similar UI features but differences beneath.

    - Native new kernel apps may be incompatible with the old, or they may not be. Probably some sort of transitional plan for this will be invoked so to avoid an abrupt change. Since Microsoft controls the store, they can control what is allowed to be released. I agree, this is a far from optimal if this indeed is how it will play out.

    - The wild card is, that WP8 may not yet come with the new MinWin-kernel but perhaps some WinCE 7 variant with rudimentary dual-core support. This probably would fit into existing phones, delaying the jump to a kernel change by a generation. This might be unoptimal for a host of other reasons.

    So, it certainly looks like Nokia and Microsoft have their work cut out for them when it comes to managing this update. It is imperative they manage it well, and not, say, like Symbian EOL. There needs to be a true sense of the current devices being a part of the future at least for their contract-terms. The world is no longer a place where support for a phone can be dropped, like N97 major updates were dropped when Symbian^3 hit. Now better is needed.

    • Janne

      Mind you, they don’t need to support current devices forever. But they do need to support them long enough. The iPhone update model has shown the market accepts a couple of major updates for a device before it stops and is no longer getting updates or all the new apps.

    • dss

      Win8 is coming with MinWin.. I think they are done with CE, which is a good thing. The more I read MinWin, the more it sounds like its very similar to a unix kernel, which is what should have happened a loong time ago. So WinPhone 8 will essentially be Windows NT..

      So, that begs the question, why would you buy a Windows CE phone now, when in 5 months you can get a phone with a much better OS ? Oh.. right, no ones tells you that at the ATT store when you sign your 2 year deal.

      • Janne

        dss:

        Well, it was incognito who a couple of days back cited “multiple sources” as saying MinWin might not yet come in WP8. So I was referring to that.

        Of course nobody here really knows what will happen. We shall see if it is good or bad.

        • incognito

          Just to be clear – as I’ve said back then, it’s a highly speculative thing, my ‘sources’ do work for Microsoft but in completely unrelated departments and those are just watercooler rumors. Wouldn’t bet my horse on that…

          • Janne

            Appreciated and agreed. It does sound plausible, though.

    • mdev

      They have no choice. Both Elop and MS know that Nokia will not last very long with this kind of sales and the greatest “feature” of WP8 will be that it is radically different from WP7.5, which failed miserably on the market.

      This is not “orderly-transition” thing, this is “desperate-change-and-hope-for-a-miracle” thing.

      So, once again Elop is betting “double or nothing” on some future contraption. This time however, he has no credibility at all, so it may end faster than anybody thinks.

      • Janne

        mdev:

        “This is not “orderly-transition” thing, this is “desperate-change-and-hope-for-a-miracle” thing.”

        Says you.

        If it turns out to be that, then yes, I agree it would a very dumb thing.

        But so far we have no information on that, just guesses and contradicting leaks.

    • migo

      I don’t think there’s any way there will be two WP8s. That would confuse the market, WP7.5 might get as many features from WP8 as they can put in, but because the kernel is different it won’t support native code, and calling it WP8 would be suicide.

      That’s why they’re calling Windows on ARM Windows RT – so there’s no assumption that it will be backwards compatible with Windows 7, Vista, etc.

  • SPAMMER

    Microsoft Lumias are mobiles without any future: market share 0.5%, disappointed free gifts owners even, disappointed carriers, manufacturer of hardware in agony, chips worse then used formerly and brainwashing marketing. I really have doubts about this all. No doubts Elop is genius, different kind of genius.

  • Rebbe

    The best thing that could happen is that wp8 would only be released to lumia devices. It would be good pr for Nokia.

    Will Nokia stop selling WP7.5 devices after wp8 lunch???? Or will they sell current lumias with upgraded hardware? I don’t see how the more resource intense wp8 will fulfil elops plans to get the wp experience to the lowend.

  • Janne

    One way how this might go down, if incognito’s sources or speculation turns out to be true (it sound plausible to me), is that Windows Phone 8 is indeed still a WinCE based release like Mango. It would then be received by all current devices as well, but perhaps new devices released in the fall would be hardware compatible (and bootloaders and stuff) with the MinWin future. So in 2013 at some point when MinWin hits, the fall devices get it where are Mango devices will only get some smaller updates from that point on.

    • mdev

      Very unlikely. In such case Microsoft and Nokia would have quashed all rumors long ago. The only reason to keep us in the dark about this is that we will not like the definitive answer.

      • arts

        the only reason huh? good thing you are the MS insider here.

        • Doffen

          The Irony, WP 7.5 EoLed before Symbian…

          • arts

            and you too!

            so sure of the facts you are.

      • Janne

        mdev:

        “The only reason to keep us in the dark about this is that we will not like the definitive answer.”

        Well, no, the other plausible reason is that they are not yet sure what they can deliver and when – so there is uncertainty about the answer. The third option is that they don’t want to discuss future products at all, until a later date.

        Your option is of course very much possible, but saying it is the “only reason” is your bias talking. I would indeed be very surprised to see a fall update to Windows Phone and no corresponding update to Mango. Just left in cold, like that. I just don’t see them doing that, and if they do it will be a monumentally stupid move.

        Much better to release a version for old phones too, even if it were to miss certain functionality (like use a different kernel). It will go a long way to appease the masses and there is no technical reason for them not to. New phones would get more functionality and thus would sell, but old owners would feel appreciated too.

        So, I am putting it on record here. If fall comes, new WP release launches only on new devices without even a “lite version” for existing devices, that will be stupidity on par with the Symbian EOL and they will get hurt, hurt really bad by it. I have no problem calling mistake a mistake if and when it happens. But until they do it, I won’t be calling it certain.

        • mdev

          Well, to be honest, this will be nowhere near the Symbian debacle.

          First, the current WP sales are really low and many of the purchasers are first-time smartphone buyers and will not even know that they are being screwed over.

          Second, if WP8 is the resounding success we all hope it to be (however desperate), all will be forgiven with the huge number of the new sales.

          Third, they do not need to commit to anything until after the WP8 devices are out and selling for few months. If they are selling well, there will be some kind of lite update sometime in 2013. If the are selling only slightly better than WP7.5 there will be a better update sooner in 2013. And if they are selling as bad as WP7.5 phones, there will be no update at all and WP will be dead soon.

          • Janne

            While possible, stopping major Mango updates to Tango/Mango Refresh this summer would be a major PR mistake. The Symbian transition was mishandled, I hope they won’t mishandle this one. I am getting the sense that Apollo indeed won’t come to current phones, but a major Mango update at the same or similar time with similar new features would alleviate much of the pain.

            If they will, well, they do deserve the shitstorm that will be coming from current users. I’m not sure they would be wise to take that on. As for Apollo selling well, as a wholly separate issue I do wist that to happen of course.

            Well, it will be whatever it will be. We’ll see in due course. :) But reiterate my recommendation, hold on from buying a Lumia now if you indeed must have Apollo on it. For people like me, no worries, 808 is coming soon and come fall, I’m probably bored with my Lumias and Symbians in any case. :)

      • migo

        Nope, and here’s why.

        They’re already working on Windows RT, getting it to work on ARM devices, they’re already working on a smartphone like resolution for the 20/80 split in Windows 8 Metro. So once they have Windows RT on ARM tablets in the market, it’s not that much extra work to get it working on phones. That’ll happen eventually, no matter what. The question is how soon will it be ready? Will Windows RT be out with Windows 8 this year, or will it be delayed until some time in 2013?

        So what they could be doing is having the WP team continue working on WP as an upgrade for current devices, and potentially as a base OS for new devices (which would run on a Snapdragon S3 for easy backward and forward compatibility). Current devices would get WP8, devices launching with WP8 could get the complete kernel overhaul with WP9.

        This depends entirely on the Windows RT team. If the Windows RT team gets things done fast enough, then they make the shift for WP8. If they don’t get it done fast enough, then the MinWin Kernel comes in at WP9 in H2/13.

        Of course they’re going to say absolutely nothing if they’re not sure what’s going to happen. They already learned their lesson from Vista. They don’t want to promise a feature or a delivery date that they end up missing.

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