Analyst misinterpreted, believes Windows Phone will not beat Android by 2015, BUT by 2013, mainly because of Nokia.

Gartner and IDC believed Windows Phone would catch on, beating iOS but still falling second to Android. Last week, we heard how analyst Stela Bokun, Senior Analyst at Pyramid Research, predicted that Windows Phone could beat Android by 2015. Pyramid research felt that we misinterpreted their prediction.

Actually, their forecast indicated with Windows Phone beating Android by 2013, continuing to maintain this lead whilst Symbian disappears and BlackBerry and iOS follow a gradual decline (man, could they not have picked better colours?). This graph above, however this is created, shows Windows Phone grabbing at least over 1/3 of the smartphone market share.

They try to explain themselves below:

http://www.pyramidresearch.com/points/item/110509.htm

• Bokun and Pyramid have acquired a Tardis and/or Delorean
• Forecast handset and smartphone demand in 51 countries
• Instead of forecasting based on the 15 largest markets, their numbers are based on individual markets and emerging markets that they believe will be the driving force of the growth through 2015
• The main reason for Windows Phone’s success? The partnership with Nokia. Whilst the momentum Android’s having is great, Pyramid believe that Nokia and Windows phone will show their full force by 2013.

How? Through Nokia’s ability to deliver smartphones across multiple price brackets, they will do the same with Windows Phone, pushing it to the high end and to lower priced handsets.  In addition to Nokia’s own scale, they are also backed still by other Windows Phone manufacturers, negating Android’s multiple manufacturer advantage.

Oddly enough, Pyramid notes that one of the manufacturers backing Windows Phone is Sony Ericsson. Whilst there has been leaked handsets, this was thought to have been canned.

Pyramid seems to have a lot of faith in Nokia, acknowledging that they are not just another manufacturer. They reckon Nokia above anyone can take some painful hits but “come out of the struggle stronger than ever” learning not just from their own mistakes but from issues their competition has faced. In what continues to appear to be a Disney underdog story, Nokia coming late to the party might apparently be getting all the attention, just what is needed to jump start the new Windows Phone era.

Bokun sees both Android and Windows Phone to continue growing through to 2015 , with intense battles resulting in continuous overtakings and ties. This growth is at the expense of BlackBerry and iPhone. Bokun reckons that enjoy the benefits of economies of scale.

I want Nokia and Windows Phone to be successful as the next major Nokia/Windows Phone fan, but I don’t think that even we could be as optimistic as Bokun and Pyramid Research (or as negative in terms of Symbian just suddenly disappearing by 2013).

Having said that, Nokia are yet to show their cards and they could still pull out possible game changers. We have always stated here that Nokia’s next flagship (which we  thought was going to be the MeeGo N9) had to be completely amazing to make an impact. Anything less than extraordinary is essentially a fail. Yes it’s ok to have lesser spec’d phones and lower price brackets, but the top phone must be top dog in the smartphone land, not just on your doorstep.

Microsoft have shown again today their complete commitment in getting into the mobile space, acquiring Skype today for a whopping NAVTEQ level 8.5 Billion Dollars (how much would Nokia’s purchase be worth with inflation?). Soon Mango will be previewed to show the latest developments coming soon to Windows Phone.

Last to note, as mentioned in the previous post, it’s not about gaining a transfer of users from Symbian to Windows Phone but getting a whole new subset of users as the smartphone arena doubles.

Pyramid via BGR.

Category: Nokia