Windows Phone to eclipse Symbian, iOS, Blackberry by 2015 as second biggest mobile OS behind Android.

IT Market and Reasearch Analysis firm IDC have made some bold predictions that say Windows Phone could become the second biggest mobile OS by 2015.

Looking at the table above, this would be a direct swap from Symbian’s supposed 20.9% Market share (for 2011) to Windows Phone, with 20.9% in 2015. Now I don’t know where the figures come from that show Symbian’s figures are so low already in comparison with Android. IDC’s press release confirm they were number 2 behind Nokia’s Symbian in 2010 even though there were premature celebrations of an early Android win through the blogosphere. That’s all them Android manufacturers vs pretty much just Nokia.

By 2015, they predict Symbian will pretty much disappear to 0.2%. Rafe Blandford from AAS predicted (very early after Feb  11) that with the 150M upcoming Symbian sales, that could take us to 2013. Nokia however have said they will continue to support Symbian in the long run and as long as its profitable. This is the expected transition from Nokia, with Nokia-Symbian users becoming Nokia Windows Phone – perhaps not the same people exactly, but certainly the same numbers and more (due to an expected 49% growth of mobile market in 2011). BTW, I think this transition was expected to happen anyway away from Symbian but then to MeeGo.

What about iOS and RIM? Well, Windows Phone will take over both by 2015. How? There’s some reports circulating the web that now thanks to Nokia, other manufacturers are gaining confidence in Windows Phone. Could Nokia alone do it? Well, they kinda are already with Symbian. Nokia’s consistently praised for incredible hardware. Match up with software giant, Microsoft. It’s all too very simple, but it should work, as long as Nokia don’t do one of their incredible masochistic actions of stupidity – every time something good is happening, they do something to destroy it.

Would windows phone continue to grow in 2016 onwards? Could Nokia (with Microsoft) reclaim the top spot? Or will Android already have too strong a hold (perhaps equally helped by Nokia who are rumoured to make an Android device in 2012 – says Eldar – though why would they do that if Elop says priority 1 is to beat Android?). Can Microsoft-Nokia beat Google? It’s pretty difficult to say given the current state of Windows Phone and Nokia’s lack of such handsets.

Press release below:

IDC Forecasts Worldwide Smartphone Market to Grow by Nearly 50% in 2011

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. March 29, 2011 – The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

“Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010.”

To capture the strong consumer demand for smartphones, manufacturers have unleashed a steady stream of new models and features over the past two years. The battle for mind and market share has also resulted in stiff competition among the smartphone operating systems.

“Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. “For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.”

Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”

Via SlashGear

Category: Nokia, Windows Phone