What if Nokia’s time……… is just over ?
Life is an endless mystery we constantly debate why we are here and we are constantly debating our future. One thing in life is for sure; though we all die or go away in some sort of way or we come back in another way. Anyway same happens in business companies come and go. Products come and go. The topic of Nokia’s downfall has been a hot topic lately and I have been constantly finding ways to piece all the puzzles together. Now there have been a whole host of reasons and very strong opinions but I am not going to go there. I am more looking at Nokia as a brand perceived by the average customer, which is far more important than we geeks, analysts journalist think.
This idea of Nokia’s time being over has crept over into my mind too many times recently; my heart says Nokia can pull through this time but my head just says what chance have they honestly got whatever strategy they choose ?
In business there is something called the Product life cycle.
The chart explains the lifetime of a product from its early idea through its various sales stages as well as its inevitable death. Now this chart also funnily enough mimics the lifetime of a business. Now you are probably saying well how come there so many old companies still alive then ?
Well companies reinvent themselves Nokia being a prime example. They started of manufacturing paper after that they dabbled around with rubber, supplying electricity (nearly going bankrupt !) footwear including rubber boots, military communications equipment, I think you get the idea now and then finally going into telecommunications.
There are also companies that where once pioneers, monopolies, strong competitors now in the oblivion or frankly irrelevant. Some examples include Sega, Sony and IBM – I am sure you have some as well.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Nokia is moving into the decline stage.
Nokia primarily develops devices that are there to make calls. And they have been very successful at it dominating the world in the 90’s and early 2000 until…………well the iPhone stole the show in 2007. They obviously struggled and still are transforming themselves into a company that develops mobile devices that take the internet more into account. Companies doing well at the moment in the smartphone business are primarily involved in the computer market in some sort which does give them the slight advantage, but the again Nokia did sell a Netbook and some half hearted attempts of tablets.
Nokia have been trying desperately trying to gain some attention mainly from US based journalists bloggers for some attention and failed multiple time.
I guess what I am trying to say is, “what if it is some else’s turn to dominate the market?”. What if it is nature taking its course? What if Nokia is just passing along the torch to the next bearer/leader, the bearer being Apple or Google with Android?
What if Nokia’s downfall is due to the fact that people have just moved on to other brands out of curiosity, change of environment……… human nature?
A lot of people have come up with reasonable ideas and conclusions but none of them consider the fact that people move on from brands from time to time. What if Nokia has gone through the Product life cycle and hit the decline part and for the final time they can’t reinvent themselves.
Doctor who regenerating ie cheating death
A funny analogy would be Doctor Who not being able to regenerate himself.
Maybe it doesn’t always have to be the fault of the product. In this case its obviously a contributing factor.
BUT……..
I mean you don’t go through life wearing the same shoes from the same company, write with pens from the same company or drive a car from the same company all your life or do you ?
I just think a lot of people have been looking at Nokia’s downfall based on technical aspects rather than other influences such natural human behaviour. I dont claim to be a psychologist or something, but in Product design we often talk about the emotional and psychological impact of products; Apple are prime experts in that field.
So when I say Nokia are too late its probably because people are resigned to accept as Apple and Android phones being the future not because they are better maybe because they are just moving on. Just as they accepted Nokia was the brand to be with in the 90′s and 2000′s
One thing is for sure the younger segment have without shadow of doubt moved on from Nokia, most of them remember Nokia as a phone they got as their first phone notably the 3310.
I have had this in my mind for some time and needed to get this out of my mind what do you guys think is it just Nokia’s time is over or am I being just weird ?
in a few words, nokia is a brand that made devices for all needs, classes of acquisition, and no for the top only. Could we tell this of all brands? Despite this we have a big part of users satisfacted with our nokias. Sincerily i have doubts if wp7 will be better than my s^3
Honestly, Nokia isn’t unique in this situation.
The tech world is littered with companies who failed to evolve and Time passed by: Palm, Sun Microsystems, Atari, Commodore, Kyocera, etc.
Except that Nokia began in 1865 and went through several evolutions during its existence. Commodore et al. existed for deacd or two.
People might laugh about mechanized production of cellulose, but it was cutting edge high tech when Nokia began it 146 years ago. All good things come to end eventually.
1865-2011.
gg
thers a diffrence between old age
and actually commiting sucide (without caring to know about what the individuals body cells have worked through to get the person working to their proper capabilities)
+100
The OP seems to forget that this decline didnt just “happen” but was prearranged and actively pushed forward by Elop and BOD. There is no problem with Nokia as a brand or as a producer. In fact Nokia was GROWING strongly just 5 months ago.
Corporate suicide != death of “old age”.
I suggest the OP acquaint himself with his subject before he writes. It helps to avoid such mistakes as this article. Unless of course his goal is to instill FUD in the minds of unknowledgeable readers.
I agree. Elop is effectively trying to destroy an ecosystem that organically grew within the co. over time – a mix of meego, symbian, qt etc.
Most developers/techies within Nokia are part of that ecosystem. Forcing a new one on these skilled people is like forcing m$ employee/developers to start coding on linux. While that would be a welcome improvement and educational experience for the m$ developers, it might not produce the intended results.
They needed better management not a replacement of all its essence.
Jay Nokia switching to WP7 is similar to Linux switching to Windows, Nokia fans are pissed off and we’re boycotting Nokia and telling everyone not to buy their products, that is why Nokia is being destroyed, there is no other reason.
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/images/news/smartphoneshipmentsq211.jpg
Jay could you please look at this graph. Nokia was way ahead of the competition in Q4 2010, Nokia N8 was the fastest selling Nokia smartphone, everyone knew Symbian needed an upgrade and we all wanted one, we didn’t want a switch to WP7. February 11th happened and the company has being destroyed, this is not a cycle.
In 2010 Nokia was still benefiting from prior success and momentum. It’s spent now.
So I guess it is a complete coincidence that it became ‘spent’ on exactly February 11th?
And what of the WP7 ‘momentum’, Ballmer said they went from very small to very small.
Check this out:
http://www.staska.net
I agree with this guy and Rafe Blandford. Yes, Feb11 might have influenced things, but its hardly the primary reason for the decline.
Sorry didn’t realize ‘john’ wrote this and not ‘jay’
We’re certainly at a point that Nokia’s fortunes could go either way. I still hold out some hope: http://tabulacrypticum.wordpress.com/2011/07/25/the-nokia-phoenix/
Well, it’s simple, it can’t be over as there is no replacement for a Nokia phone … I would not be (as) happy with any other phone on the market today. Can iPhone 4 or Samsung Galaxy offer the same call quality? No way … can they deliver same photo or video sound quality as an N8? No. Do they have the same features?
- iPhone – NO: Radio, SD Card, HDMI, Xenon, Video digital zoom, FM Transmitter, AMOLED which allows clock always on the screen, File browser, installing applications from anywhere, USB OTG, FREEDOM
- SGS2 – NO: FM Transmitter, HDMI (only MHL which is not quite the same as it’s not very used yet and no cable included), xenon, video digital zoom without loss of quality, Wi-fi working in standby, aluminium, hot swap card, (two phase) camera button, five band HSDPA, etc.
There are a lot of reasons not to be happy with an iPhone or SGS, there are reasons not to be happy with N8 too (slower processor, not very high resolution screen, etc), but as far as I am concerned, I don’t have an alternative from any other manufacturer out there. And there are quite enough Symbian apps out there, I have more than 300 installed, just not enough time to use them all.
I don’t think Nokia will die, but it will definately change. I mean it ran the world of mobiles for so long with 40%+ market share and that is now unsustainable.
But don’t forget Apple nearly died in the past after Jobs was kicked out.
Also with the pace of change in technology operating systems such as IOS, Android, WP etc will not exist in 5 years. They would have been replaced by something else from their creators, or a new entrant will appear out of no where.
It is even possible that Nokia will come up with something brand new in 2-3 years that blows everyone away.
Nokia will definately shrink, but it will return to profitability and stabilise its market share in 2012.
Personally I think Meego will become quite big in 2012 as I think Android will peak then, and maybe decline a little.
Still, we will just have to wait and see.
I have been saying that Wp7 is probably only a stop gap. Technology in the mobile phone market is moving at a lightning pace. I am sure that Nokia will come up with something.
“I have been saying that Wp7 is probably only a stop gap.”
That’s madness. Completely disrupt the sales, the stock price, the staff morale, a part of the userbase, the profits for a frelling stop gap that *is* sweaker than the current product.
All that devastation for a stop gap !? That’s complete insanity.
In other news, the burning platform is having its swan song with some further expansion of its app store.
http://www.stocksandshares.tv/nokia-corp-nysenok-sees-app-store-expand/32010290
Peoples lives are at stake I dont care how much “drugs” Elop is on, I dont think he would do that to so many people whatever Baller has told him. I mean money is nice but there comes a point where money doesn’t even matter.
You can believe all you want, you are entitled to your opinion but I am not going to believe in such nonsense myself. If Elop is devaluing Nokia so Microsoft can buy it, then well he doesn’t have to because Nokia’s value isn’t that much today anyway. Microsoft could buy Nokia today in cash if it wanted to why wait to destroy it ?
In fact if you believe everything you read well HTC will buy Nokia next year so yeah you might be right.
“If Elop is devaluing Nokia so Microsoft can buy it, then well he doesn’t have to because Nokia’s value isn’t that much today anyway. Microsoft could buy Nokia today in cash if it wanted to why wait to destroy it ? ”
I don’t recall saying anything of the sort. Can you refresh my memory by pointing me to a post from me saying so ?
Your argument is that the switch to WP7 could be a stop gap measure.
I pointed out that I believe it would be lunacy to wreak havoc for a stop gap.
Well that seems the general consensus from most of Elop’s critics.
Any way when I said a stopgap measure I mean that Nokia wont be using Wp7 forever are they ? Mobile tech moves fast, in a few years most OS’s currently on the market will become irrelevant, we will have moved on to the next thing, thats why the next disruption Elop talks about is as important.
“Well that seems the general consensus from most of Elop’s critics.”
Take it to them then.
“Any way when I said a stopgap measure I mean that Nokia wont be using Wp7 forever are they ? ”
Sure. Then what’s the point. No need to respond, it’s a rhetorical question.
“Mobile tech moves fast, in a few years most OS’s currently on the market will become irrelevant, we will have moved on to the next thing, thats why the next disruption Elop talks about is as important.”
Elop should first deal with the needlessly IMO self inflicted current disruption.
What am i talking about again? It’s the cycle of life…
I seem be loosing you what are you talking about ?
Getting back to the point
My prediction is that Nokia’s share will drop to low 20′s and stabilize as WP is phased in. I believe that WP will be reasonably successful but wont shine until 2012 when the release after Mango will have added functionality and total Nokia integration with Maps, and the rest.
I hope that Nokia produces a range of hardware which is really innovative and packs more functionality per price point than all the competitors.
Combined with a huge marketing effort from Nokia, Microsoft and others that should stabilise things and maybe start increasing share.
I really hope Nokia puts the N9 interface on top of microsoft’s interface as much as possible, because I think its beautiful.
Then a combined microsoft/nokia ecosyetm with maps, music, video, vouchers, NFC payemtns, email, contact management and things we haven’t even heard of yet should be as compelling as anything Apple or Goolgle can come up with.
Oh and I really wish microsoft would allow Nokia to port QT, or someone else, to windows.
Having said that I still want Nokia to produce 1-2 Meego phones as well as backup with full services.
If they can do all this then I think Nokia will start gaining share again, because I also think they will produce the best hardware at the moment and long into the future.
Apple is the only one who is anywhere near close to producing the quality of hardware (in some areas) that Nokia can when you combine materials, camera, connectivity, screen, etc etc. Nokia is king there at the moment and should allow them to keep an edge.
But heck, what do I know?
the chart u posted “Product Life Cycle” ist not for all products … examples: Coca Cola, Nivea, Lego … they all exist for years now, and don’t vanish from the market ever
maybe Nokia will be one of it?