MNB RG: Windows Phone progress according to StatCounter
This is a follow up by Janne to yesterday’s post. This is a little more of a broader overview as opposed to just looking at two extremes, Finland (very small population) and China (huge population).
Yesterday we took a look at the growth of Lumia in Finland (http://mynokiablog.com/2012/06/21/mnb-rg-finnish-lumia-growth-in-june-exceeds-may/). In a comment jiipee suggested that we also compare the progress to other countries.The attached graph shows StatCounter percentages, that is basically market share percent amongst existing devices (measured in network usage), in several countries since Windows Phone 7.5 launch in September 2011.USA, UK, Germany and China are obviously included, as is Europe as a whole. Finland is included as Nokia’s home and Iceland as the (my guess) second “best” market for Windows Phone at the moment.I was trying to include India and Russia, but was unable to get Windows Phone data for them via StatCounter. If anyone can tell me how, please do. So, I included France and Australia instead, just for fun.Some notes that may/may not be reflected on the graph:
- Note that out all these Finland and Iceland are small markets, with single-figure millions of people. Changes there are therefore faster to achieve than in other examples.
- In Germany, France and United Kingdom, Lumia launched in November 2011.
- In Finland, Lumia launched in February 2012. Same with Iceland and Australia. These show in the stats.
- In U.S., Lumia 710 launched in January, Lumia 900 in April 2012. Latter was especially significant. marketing and operator-wise.
- In China, Lumia launched in late March, with the ever-important Lumia 610 following in May.
- In Finland (and many other places like Australia), Lumia 610 and 900 launched in late May 2012, which may show in June stats.
- In Germany, does the decision by some operators to not carry Lumia 900 show in the June stats. Maybe.
You can check out more countries by following this link:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-monthly-201109-201206
Cheers again, Janne!
Category: Nokia, Windows Phone
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I think we can see promise in the USA, UK and China – also countries Elop said a week ago in the investor call that Nokia would concentrate on. Especially interesting is the discussion as to what is going on in China, two days StatCounter is now showing 2.5%+ market share for Windows Phone.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-CN-daily-20120615-20120622
Is this the 610 and 900 launches, new operator partners or new local Windows Phone apps making the difference – and how much of a difference can it make in the future?
It is also interesting to look at daily stats in Finland:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-daily-20120615-20120622
Windows Phone actually reached 10.48% on Monday!
Also worldwid perispective is worth to see I think: http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-daily-20120601-20120622
Wow, Symbian just lost to Series 40.
Speaking of this, does anyone know of a way to separate the “Other” on StatCounter. It indeed would be interesting to see, not only the worldwide numbers, but numbers from places like Russia and India which I was unable to get at this time.
Hi Janne,
You can download a file showing all mobile OS stats for all countries for a given month. (The download breaks out the “other” category also).
Access the file for May 2012 at this URL:
http://gs.statcounter.com/download/mobileos-country/?year=2012&month=5
(Just modify the URL to get other months.)
If you want to check our detection at any stage (and submit suggestions/changes), you can use this tool:
http://gs.statcounter.com/detect
We did recently correct a Nokia detection error and we have full information on this in our FAQ:
http://gs.statcounter.com/faq#symbian-fall
We’re open to all queries, suggestions and comments – so feel free to contact us: http://gs.statcounter.com/feedback
I don’t think there is a way but I wish there was too.
Devil is in details! We are looking but what can we see or notice?
Those stats are about “Windows” not “Lumias”, and also other companies sell paralelly windowsphones – so the picture is false a bit – it is about Windows, not only Lumias. This is first to notice.
At this stat
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-daily-20120615-20120622
we can see Symbian has been replaced by S40 – that can mean Symbian users has replaced older mobiles with newer but S40 ones. This is second to notice.
At this stat
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_vendor-FI-daily-20120615-20120622
we can find Nokia constantly falling down while Samsung growing, HTC growing and ZTE growing. Samsung and HTC also sell Windows phones. The ZTE company is quite interesting. This Chinese firm like Nokia (in terms of the busines scale) which manufactures Windows phones similar in features to Lumias (this is exactly the same Windows, remember that!) but this is 1/4 of Lumia price. This is third to notice.
Now consider this all together:
Nokia is loosing vendor’s share (2nd above),
together S40 + Symbian are constant more or less (3st above) only replaced each other,
Nokia’s competitors which are selling Windows phones are growing
and this article says “Windows” is growing => for me that whole together would mean: Yes windows is grownig , but with non-Nokia devices – with competitors devices, Windows is growing with Windows devices but with non-Lumias devices.
Nokia is supporting all the windows devices with active advertising all over the world, not only Lumias and not only Nokia – because Windows looks the same, and Nokia logo is smalest part of all adverts.
And competitors have cheaper devices, better working windows and so on.
This is good for Windows sell, but if this is good for Nokia sell?
If you want to discuss please discus with arguments, but not with hate or fanboy approach – I don’t care. Well some math understanding can be helpful. You can proove I have made a mistake, or not. That’s what is called a discussion.
When we use statistics it is like with a TV set, more important then how big is it’s screen is what resolution it displays. The 50′ screen with VGA or 10dpi will show less then 10′ screen with HDTV or 3500dpi.
The point is what we can understand from displayed picture, how easy to understand or how sharp it is, not how big is the screen on which it is displayed.
That is why we are tortured with math in school
Some points:
- Series 40 is only showing its real stats now in StatCounter. StatCounter was mistakenly listing Series 40 as Symbian until a month or two ago. So I doubt there as big a change between Symbian and Series 40 as the stats show. This is of course one problem with places like StatCounter, the results may not be all that accurate all the time. One needs to look for trends and interpret them.
- Currently all other Windows Phone manufacturers are pretty much insignificant. I expect with the WP8 announcement this to be even more the case for the next months, because at least Nokia has some extra apps and stuff on the pipeline and others may not. So yes, while those numbers include others than Nokia – especially prior to the Lumia launch, but I’d say their amount is probably inconsequential in this analysis. At the moment. (The competition will of course heat up with WP8.)
As for the rest of your arguments, I feel that goes to the discussion whether or not the strategy is good or bad, or whether or not one believes Nokia has a vested interest in seeing Windows Phone succeed or simply some misguided or trojanhorsed agenda. I personally choose to opt out from that discussion, because the battle-lines have been drawn and there is no point to discuss it again, because rational debate on it is not possible here. What will be, will be. Time will tell.
But I am interested in trying to gather and interpret the statistics, to see where Nokia and/or Windows Phone are succeeding, failing or something in-between. I think that is fruitful neutral ground for all of us. So I hope my points above are something towards that.
Symbian and S40 stats are from period of 20120615-20120622 so recent and adequate to period you have used. Compareable.
Yes, Statcount was corrected, but this has no influence here.
Yes the results may not be all that accurate all the time, I have just noticed or I just suppose the trend is to replace former Symbian mobiles with newer S40 mobiles, as from the chart I can read (more or less) that the sum is the same, but shares in the sum are replaced.
“Currently all other Windows Phone manufacturers are pretty much insignificant.” I disagree with this. Competitors are doing their job silently. The one should be noticed first is ZTE. This is Chinese company, it has capabilities compareable or bigger then Nokia and manufacture substitutive mobiles at 3 or 4 times lower price. This mean that growth in China can have reason in ZTE sell, but not Nokia sell.
Of course we can speak about WP8 but only when it will be on the shelfes. By that time it can be terminated like Meltemi was terminated.
I just wanted to notice that stat tools ought to be used with some humboolness, they can show very precisely what is the picture or can be far from it.
I don’t care battel-lines, I stand for Nokia. But I will not go for any war. Yes time will tell. The same way as now time has told us about what was good/bad in the past. Now is “time will tell”-moment for what was a future some months or years ago.
“Now is the best moment to create a better future. Tommorow can be to late” – that is my own, at last I hope so
Whatever you are interested in, trying to gather and interpret the statistics, always this is a good moment the talk and discuss IMHO.
Janne is right. The Lumias grabbed 80% of WP market almost immediately and I’m sure it is in to the 90s now.
The question is only what share of the whole market is this? I don’t know, but that would mean that this 80 or 90 will be a part of it.
Looking at Europe also looks good–rising better than the US and UK lately.
Thanks for your posts. I sometimes thought about putting together some similiar work so it is nice to see someone actually got around to it unlike me
I would like to stats on Lumia compared to 808 sales..
I think it will be very hard to do with StatCounter data at least. Unless someone knows how to get particular devices out from there? I guess we can follow if the Symbian losses flat-line or turn into gains over the next weeks and summer months? That might tell us something via StatCounter.
I am pretty new with StatCounter’s particulars, so if anyone has good ideas or tips how to get to the bottom of it, please share.
Here you can follow the impact of 808 PureView on the daily graph for Finland:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-daily-20120423-20120622
The 808 PureView came on sale 12th of June 2012 at the Nokia flagship store and droplets of stock reached other stores that week, with more distributed again this week but still shortages as I understand it.
I can see a slight upwards trend on the week of the 808 release, but nothing really to offset the generally flat-lined Symbian trend for the two week period shown. On the other hand, Lumia is raising clearly with the help of the 610 and the 900 released in late May.
BTW: Today and this weekend is a *major* holiday in Finland, so don’t make too much of any Finnish numbers this weekend. They will be all over the place as people are mostly drowning themselves – hopefully only in beer and figuratively.
It’s midsummer.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midsummer
Btw didn’t ZTE launch a WP mobile in china.
Are you a mole of Gates?
Why would a mole of Gates post a graph where Windows Phone is essentially doing badly? If I were a mole (I’m not), I’d be the crappiest one ever posting this.
I am Nokia fan trying to enjoy the hobby with other Nokia fans. jiipee suggested I do this, it is holiday in Finland and I had time, so I did.
I would have liked to include several other countries too, but StaCounter does not have public tracking of WP in many places.
Forgive me, but please don’t be ridiculous please – StatCounter counts in ALL countries EXACTLY EQUALLY – if there is no WP in StatCounter = there is no WP in this country. Period. This is what stats are for: they are to reflect the reality, but not anyone whisfullthinking. Otherwise option “worldwide” in Statcounter would not have any sense at all. Please don’t make me laugh. Or ask StatCounter team here http://statcounter.com/about/contact/ – I appreciate your efforts and intentions, they are pure and clear I think. Anyway when you have said “I would have liked to include several other countries too, but StaCounter does not have public tracking of WP in many places.” you have just gone to far. In such a case, if that would be true, how could you suppose those mentione by you stats are true? So, that would mean – you present probably false stats about WP! It doesn’t make any sens.
Statcounter just counts – if there is notheing to be counted – there is nothing on the chart.
Or perhaps somebody pays for good charts here or there – and we are in conspiracy theories zone.
keep smiling – fortunately Nokia is not only WP!
Olarniu Gebero:
I think this is getting to be my cue on this discussion, I am sick and tired of having to worry about the particular words I use and get attacked from different angles. People seem to be intent on finding the worst meanings possible in them. Again, in this case, for no justifiable reason.
I don’t the response will change anything, but what I was trying to say is that… well, StaCounter does not have public tracking of WP in many places.
It is true. Not because it hasn’t been counted, or there isn’t anything to count, but assumedly because there are eight more popular mobile operating systems in that country. (Or some other unknown reason to me.) The “other” category may be miles high in some cases, but the separation of those categories is not available… because StatCounter does not publicize it.
Are you seriously saying “there is no WP in this country” e.g. India or Russia. Are for fricking for real? StatCounter does not have public tracking of WP in many places, because it limits the amount of operating systems it reports.
If you know a way around it, please share. I’d love to update the graph with India and Russia.
Janne – with all the discussion here, I don’t think you noticed our previous post.
ALL our stats are publicly available. We simply have to limit the number of items we show on the graphs – otherwise they become cluttered and impossible to read.
See our earlier comment here:
http://mynokiablog.com/2012/06/22/mnb-rg-windows-phone-progress-according-to-statcounter/comment-page-1/#comment-602076
Email us if you have any questions – we’d be happy to help:
http://gs.statcounter.com/feedback
i believe many of you have known this news.stephen elop replies to frustuated lumia 900 user.
http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/20/lumia-900-owner-vents-windows-phone-8-frustrations-stephen-elop/
So Looking at that chart we see what? WP massive strugle to manage to rise up the 1% quota… Iceland??? You know how many people live in Iceland??? you know that 1000 users alone represent 1% of that market. Explaining for example the 12% meego usage in 3 June. No one would Love that more than me, but is completely unrealistic.
Small countrys (<1milion) don't produce much valid data similar to China were the great firewall blocks users from most international websites…
So what can we extract from that graph…. apart from Finland wp struggles to make a dent in mobile OS worlwide presence, despite the massive marketing campaigns from Microsoft and Nokia.
But sure I'm sure we have to wait till WP8 phones hit the market…. (didn't we hear this before, and before?)
Yes, we do see a massive struggle for WP. Nobody is disputing that. Feel free to pitch in with some constructive analysis of the trends.
I don’t think the Finland and Iceland numbers are wrong, though. I see no reason to believe that. I’d say they are inconsequential for the bigger picture, of course.
Finland shows smooth numbers, if you are into statistics or math you should know that that is a good sign, so Finland numbers are of good quality after you project the possible error via average deviation..
In the case of Iceland if you look at the data you conclude nothing… as the average deviation is larger than you expected average, so statistically it is possible that WP as negative sales, that would be absurd right? So I would not use that data…. Same can be said about China for example…
Conclusion… WP sells well in Findland, (Nokia home country of 3 million+ people) rest of the world with decent consistent data???? not so great…
This was a constructive analysis of the data, will help you in the future in reading stats, was a favorite subject of mine back in the day
…
noki: I’d say yours was a creative commenting of the data based on your own bias, but that would be telling.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-IS-monthly-201109-201206
I do agree with your points generically, and especially that there are many, many reasons to distrust StatCounter data (and more so from small or restricted markets), but not with your implication that none of the deviations could actually mean good things for WP… The balanced view is that those cases can go either way.
Time will tell. This is the best data we’ve got, so we are discussing it. Feel free to provide us with better data.
P.S. Finland has 5+ million people.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-IS-daily-20120301-20120522
see here example meego managed to get 13% one day, this shows that the valid pool stat is extremely small.
wile here
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-daily-20110901-20120622
you can clearly see that the margin or error is smaller than the market percentage, and inline with what I say about the validity of the finish data VS the Icelandic data… In a nutshell the larger the stats pool the better that data as we can clearly see in the above stats…
noki:
Hey, I got and get what you are saying. And I’ve read enough math and statistics at the uni to get your point. I just disagree with the way the implications were presented.
First, I disagree with the suggestion (laugh?) that Iceland shouldn’t have been presented. It is an interesting case because it is, as far as I know, the second market on StatCounter after Finland. Naturally the analysis should follow the data, and decide what to make of it. Indeed, it was perfectly valid for you to point out the margin or error because all my original post did was compile data – for us to analyze together, but what you did was in fact suggest Windows Phone is not doing well in Iceland, that part I disagreed with.
Second is just that, I think only implied that Windows Phone in Iceland is probably doing badly. I disagreed with the way you suggested what you did – showing your bias. In fact, in the same vein Windows Phone might do far more spectacularly in Iceland than I the StatCounter data presents. The balanced view would have pointed that out.
In any case, I tend to think the monthly stats do even things out. When I look this Iceland graph since the beginning of 2010, it looks plausible:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-IS-monthly-201001-201205
If we look at it daily, the “other” category has leaped to around 18% twice recently, far above where MeeGo went:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-IS-daily-20100101-20120522
But still, the trends are visible. Sure, we can argue that theoretically Windows Phone might not be growing in Iceland, and it probably is correct to say that, but looking at the graphs overall, I think it is perfectly possible – even likely – that it actually is growing quite well there. In real life, averages tend to take care of the outliers. Iceland is traditionally a Nokia strong country, it is not at all unlikely Lumia is doing quite well there – especially considering the growth in Iceland is not in any way huge, it would be easily represented by a number of people in the small population choosing to check Lumia out.
I know you disagree, but sometimes common sense is better than numbers.
Janne I feel a bit insulted by your observations, you say ” but what you did was in fact suggest Windows Phone is not doing well in Iceland” I do not say such thing, it is dishonest of you to say such a thing….
then you go and say “Second is just that, I think only implied that Windows Phone in Iceland is probably doing badly….showing your bias” what I did did there was a reduction to the absurd, a usual method to prove something in math, what i said was that given the error statistically it might be possible that windows phone is selling negative numbers, witch should be a pretty self evident argument to see how fragile this data is.
You choose to think and read in my comment that I actually said that wp is selling negative numbers (its impossible to sell negative anything), (in retail at least).
Any way your last graph kinda says it all, is show an incredibly small population were a couple of individuals make a visible difference, the monthly graph does not help you much showing huge spikes and variations, reinforcing the idea that the population in this data is rather small…
again compare this data to another not so big market Finland and you will see a world of difference.
And Janne wonders why he’s called a WP/Elop/MS apologist. It’s very bad when one is blind to his own bias, like Janne so clearly is. At least I know I’m against WP/Elop/MS and don’t even pretend to be some impartial observant.
I’m not without bias, nobody is. I am a Nokia fan who wants to see Nokia win. And I do like Windows Phone too.
But I prefer to be hopeful while still attempting to keep things real too. I am no rabid fan, more of a realistic fan.
Not that you believe me, but it doesn’t matter.
noki: MNB is Like politics nowadays, everybody geeling insulted left and right.
Well, all this comes down to interpretation and communication. I thought you were overly negative, while at the same time making a good general point. I agree with the point that small or restricted market data is fragile and it is good that you presented it. You made a good point there. I don’t want fantasy interpretations in any direction, just good look at the data. Your point was a good addition.
I do think, if you read your initial messages again, you went a little overboard in your negative response to me. I had made this a graph of the data available, not claimed WP is doing well. I didn’t claim anything, in fact I am quick to admit WP is struggling in that data. Yet you ridiculed including Iceland. You could have been much more neutral about it, that’s all.
But if you just want to be insulted and not see the point, then I guess you won’t.
“bit insulted” because I think you twisted your analysis on what I said.
like for example “Yet you ridiculed including Iceland” I made a reduction to the absurd, to prove that you should not use Icelandic data. I’m sure you can find better data out there for windows phone. and supplying data of extremely low trust value undermines your point more than it helps it…
If you have only used global Europe US and Asia (I would not used Finland as it would a clear case of cherry picking, and cause it would be included in Europe), you could have made a much better point… At least as math goes.. (I do realize that it would paint a much worse picture of the market share but as you say some measurable growth)
noki: I still fail to see what your point is. I read your original response to me over and over again, and I can’t for the life of me see what it has to do with the post I submitted to Jay. Here are parts of your message:
I was making no case that Windows Phone is selling well, just providing some examples or where the numbers were good (bad numbers don’t usually show in StatCounter so I couldn’t include those), as well as the major markets jiipee asked for and that I could think of (again, I couldn’t get Russia or India) and then a couple of random countries I could think of.
I even reflected in my comments the limited ramifications of small country data and put the “best” in quotes for Iceland. Yet, I get that response from you. You completely overreacted to my post. And if you think your post didn’t include ridicule, I have a bridge to sell you.
It was manual work, taking data from the CSVs, country by country to Excel and combining it all – with my home computer with basically crappy tools, and a starter Excel without any features, meaning manual typing. So it was a lot of work and I couldn’t include all possible countries, I just picked some and put them out there. I see no rational reason for your reaction, other than some biased reaction to it being me posting it.
Yes, I definitely cherry picked Finland, because it is interesting. A Nokia graph without Finland? Silly talk. Bust most importantly, because THAT IS what jiipee asked me to do – to compare Finland with major markets. I was doing a request. Iceland also felt interesting to me as number two (I read some magazine article recently that mentioned Iceland being number 2, that’s why I picked it) and the rest of the countries I tried to pick in an order of relevance.
I guess for you to be happy I should have left Finland and Iceland out, and maybe I should have. Maybe it would have given the more realistic outlook. But I don’t think it would have been the most interesting post, because number 1 and number 2 on StatCounter are still interesting stuff for readers due to the human element. People like to know how the best and the worst are doing.
But this is MNB for you these days. I present to you neutral data as well as a post with no claims to what the data means, and I get attacked for being a fanboy.
Well, guess what, I *am* a Nokia fanboy! Nothing wrong with that on a Nokia fan site. However, I did not pick the data out of fandom, but because I thought the best performers and the relevant performers would be interesting – and I was asked to do it by another frequenter here. I would have loved to include some really bad performers, but due to the way StatCounter works that is not possible – although some might rightfully say some of the relevant players I listed are in fact bad players.
@ janne fair point… I was mostly referring to my comments on Iceland. not the final conclusion I made. to that you have a point and I do show bias.
noki: Yes, you have a point regarding small (Iceland) and restricted markets being more unreliable than normal. That is true, we found common ground I think.
Let me add: negative sell may mean just people are getting back phones, or a group (tourists?) with WP devices has disappeared, perhaps has sailled home. Math and stats are precise, only interpretations of interpretators can be like telling stories of fantasies. Eg.: it can’t be excluded a group of tourists has been eatten by phyranias in 3D and hence devices has gone from Iceland – be more serious then this please
Janne, sä olet myyrä! No hard feelings…
En ole… olisin aika huono myyrä sitäpaitsi, kun tekemäni graafi osoittaa että Windows Phonella menee huonosti.
Ei kannata antaa salaliittoteorioiden viedä liikaa. Tulee tulkittua väärin. Terveisin pitkäaikainen Nokia-käyttäjä ja -fani.
why are you even replying for noki ? This guy is paid by google for all his anti nokia bullshit
I did visit Googleplex A couple of times, and was offered a job there more than once, same goes for apple and Nokia, have some friends working on all of them, But no, I’m not paid by google, you are clearly ignorant, as if you actually read my post you would notice that my bias is towards Open Source and the people working on nokia that are losing their jobs, many of them my personal friends…
BTW Once many years ago I also lost a job because of Microsoft kiss of death…
“Feel free to pitch in with some constructive analysis of the trends.”
I’ll give you some constructive stuff about the StatCounter if you don’t mind. StatCounter stats are a pointless sales/marketshare analysis tool. They don’t represent sales numbers, they just measure internet page loads and don’t do even that accurately.
You’re all just wasting your time with this StatCounter mumbo jumbo.
Death Merchant:
I appreciate you adding the warning that StatCounter data is not accurate in reporting actual sales, but a alot of different things affect it. I think we all can agree and appreciate that. We get the point. It is good.
But as for our time, it is ours and ours to waste. This is a hobby. Most hobbies by definition are a waste of time. Some people like twiddling with sports stats. What’s the point? There is even less point there, but they like it. Let them like it.
We like discussing things Nokia. When sales data again appears, I’m sure we’ll discuss that too. Or maybe we won’t if it all just results in a bloodbath.
What we see here is surely not progress, but the lack of it, for Windows Phone.
Windows Phone, for the 18th month running, still fails to show any signs of real growth except in special circumstances (that is Finland, and Finland only, really). Especially for Nokia’s (other) strong markets it looks bleak and very weak.
These little dips and dents fall well within statistical variance – that’s what Windows is in mobile these days! Irrelevant beyond a shadow of a doubt and surely a mistake for Nokia.
Similar to Android when it first launched. Android took 2 years to make a dent in market share and only after the launch of the Droid. Also, like the Lumia launch, the Droid was promoted with a Buy One Get One Free offer, BOGO.
Right.. Android had way, way less advertising, less manufacturers and that was a long time ago. (the market has changed a lot)
The beginning years of Android and WP are simply not comparable.
Sorry but Android had tons of marketing. Everyday I would hear the Droid commercial with that catchy ‘drooooiiid’ tune. And yes the market has changed, it is a lot more competitive. The Droid had very little competition.
Well I am rather sure it had less. Someone has to find some data on how much was used to advertise android.
I’m sure it was a much easier climate back in Androids early days than it is now.
I know, and it was one of the points I made. “(the market has changed a lot)”
With that I mean that it was easier back then.
“Windows Phone, for the 18th month running, still fails to show any signs of real growth except in special circumstances”
That is false. Both the Lumia 900 and 710 are top sellin phones in the US. The 710 is one of the top 5 phones for T-Mobile. The 900 is the second best selling phone on AT&T for 2 months in a row. It is gainging traction in the US. However, it won’t make a serious dent in market share until more phones reach more carriers in the US, namely Verizon.
give us those numbers and links please…..
No stats will be enough for the likes of Elop supporters.
noki being a butthurt fag as usual
With you being yourself.
Sorry to go out off topic, have u guys heard that windows might be making their own windows phone they bought Danger years back and they plan on using it that’s gonna be low blow for nokia!
The Danger buy was a miserably failure–that is where the Kin came from. Notice it’s all stock sites pumping the baseless story about MS making their own phone and that should tell you something.
The Surface tablet was developed in super secreacy in an underground bunker since around the time Windows 8 started development. If they were to make phones running on the same kernel, there is no way they would not have developed them in the same project and they would been revealed at the same time. Now that the Surface team has been exposed it would be impossible to keep a Surface phone project secret if it actually existed.
I tend to believe that to be true, not because they cant have but because its would be utterly stupid t do so.. OEM’s seams rather discontempt with WP so far and such a move would kill it with them (except nokia of course
that follows Microsoft strategy to the end of the world literally).
Unless Microsoft expect this as a possibility, wile expecting Nokia to go bankrupt, then if no more OEM’s are with Microsoft probably trying an apple model might make sense, but at this moment I believe that microsoft still has a bit of a chance with his remaining OEM’s. (all 4 of them)
Whatever Ms decides to do, Nokia will have to bow down. Nokia has no say in future Ms stradegy, but Ms has an indirect control over Nokia’s future.
why don’t you go back to your cuntdroid forums , u pathetic cunts
You are so sad…. Did you actuality read what I posted?
If that was “a super secret” then why everybody knows it? Bullshit.
MMM… Still slow… to slow… Nokia will need to sell zillions of Asha 311 devices to survive, I wouln’t count the Nokia 808 because it won’t get so much push, it will be the same story of the N9 if you ask me, maybe softer, but I don’t see so much push for it by Nokia.
The N8 sold 4+ millions device until the infamous Feb 11 “Thing”… I can only guess how many devices could sell the 808 with propert ad campaing…
on other side have you ever consider that Windows Phone is failling due to its UI paradigm???… It’s like it break one law into the design world. iOS, Adnroid, Meego-Harmmatan, Symbian, everyone have one thing in common, their UI is ubiquous, it can like you or not, but at the same time you can live with it, specially if it work flawesly; but with Windows Phone Metro UI, is a different story, you can love or hate it, doesnt matter if it work buttering smooth.
Windows Phone is failing? That’s news to the press because by they way they are covering it lately they have already crowned it as the 3rd ecosystem. And WP’s UI is one the biggest reasons why WP’s momentum continues to uptick and why WP’s mindshare is well beyond where it should be relative to its marketshare.
Also check out statcounter data for Symbian. 99.99% of the world didn’t care about burning platform memo and Symbian’s usage actually rose for the following 8 months after the memo but then it starting sinking like a stone and it was almost all attributed to Android.
Look at Nokia shares price: -18% down – that really shows how all this is estimated by markets and some who know more. Spells will not heal neither the situation nor the Nokia. Windows UI is one of most hated and assumed to be wrong idea. So far nobody has won with market.
Look at StatCounter but worldwide and vendors. If Nokia is not to be overtaken for it’s pattents then must look for incomes others then Windows UI. They do the same what they have done last year, hence can’t expect other effects then obtained last year. And Nokia’s pocket is not bottomless.
Don’t be naive, it is not even funny.
Nah, I think Nokia will do just fine with Windows Phone.
Also you’re citing share price as evidence of WP UI acceptance and you call me naive–okay then.
“share price as evidence of WP UI acceptance” no to that we should use actual sold phone numbers ……. the same numbers the markets probably look at to make the share price of nokia go down 18%…
It’s been months since we had sales numbers and that 18% drop Picka referred to had absolutely nothing to do with sales numbers from 3 months ago. Many factors drive share price but the largest effect on Nokia’s share price recently is mostly because of large investment houses being rule-bound to not only avoid buying Nokia but having to sell off their Nokia holdings after Nokia’s debt rating reached certain negative milestones. I was surprised by the number of people picking up Nokia stock (triple volume) on the 14th after Moody’s downgrade or it would have been much worse. We know it was the investment houses selling but I would be curious to know who bought so much Nokia stock that day–presumably some investment houses with a speculative pool to draw from but who else.
They’re covering because of the big Behemoth behind it (MS)… And not everything in the press are roses and unicorns for Windows Phones, for Bussines media, Nokia is doomed, and with it Windos Phone, and some tech relate sites, are taking care of the feelings of the OEMS about the MS surface, and now a posible Windows Phone by MS… Windows Phone momentun has nothing to do wiht the UI, it has more to do about Nokia, (yep they still have some influence) taking Windows Phone and good looking devices (Lumia 800 and 900, the 710 looks, well… not so good.
The ultra fast Symbian collapse has a lot to do with Feb 11, The Smartphones market is growing, and Android & iOS are growing with it, Symbian too, the problem??? Symbian was growing slowest than the others two, that was a sing that Symbian needed a big overhaul or let it go, when a better option appear/were ready; yes the world didn’t take care about the Feb 11 memo, but those that sell devices for the whole world take care, so one rule if you’re a reseller is: if something is being EOLED sell all its unit in stock and don’t renew it; you don’t believe me???… if my memory isn’t failling in Germany a operator refuse the Lumia 900 due to the little problem of it don’t being upgradable to WP 8, just imagine if that is for a product with full support from their manufacturer, what can you expect for a product being called crap by its own OEM???
Windows Phone UI is an approach that your can love or hate, an that’s something bad for a product that’s aimed to the mass market, high volume sales. That’s why the tech world is expecting to see how will go for Windows 8, and alot are beting that this will be a Vista 2.0 history
It’s absurd to say WP’s rising momentum has nothing to do with the UI. Of course Nokia is very important too but WP was steadily rising before Nokia even started. The fresh, bold UI is definitely was and still is a big factor. Of course it is not for everyone–nothing bold ever is.
You obviously didn’t look at the statcounter data but if you do as I suggest in my post above you’ll see the memo had nothing to do with Symbian’s collapse. I know almost everyone on here disagrees with that but almost everyone here is really emotionally invested in Nokia and all jumped to conclusions on that fateful day. But the statcounter data shows what really caused Symbian’s collapse–Android and it didn’t start until 8 months after the memo.
The jury is still out for W8 on desktops but it’s a pretty safe bet that W8 tablets are going to be a success and the synergy of W8 tables and WP8 phones is another compelling aspect that should drive them both.
Vista sold 400 million copies and generated 100s of billions in profit and provided almost all the source code for an even more successful and profitable OS in Windows 7–I sure hope W8 doesn’t fail like that. Windows 7 is Vista with all the asinine nagging removed and that was 95% of Vista’s problem.
Well its clear that nothing you say will change my point of view and nothing I say will change yours… So, let end this conv. at this point and wait for the next two month to see how evolve all things, ok?
Ok but not much is going to happen in the next 2 months. We may get some news about upcoming Nokia Apollo phone and W8 tablets and if we’re lucky will see evidence that Verizon is going to really back WP and carry a Nokia flagship device. Buy it will be well into the 4th quarter at least before we know about sales.
“WP was steadily rising before Nokia even started.”
Really? Not according to Gartner. From Gartner’s Q1/2011 report:
“Windows Phone saw only modest sales that reached 1.6 million units in the first quarter of 2011, as devices launched at the end of 2010 failed to grow in consumer preference and CSPs continued to focus on Android.”
And after that the WP sales got even worse.
As usual from you, that’s BS. We don’t actual sales figures but we can pretty much tell from Facebook and other apps and a bit later netmarketshare data that WP’s momentum has consistently risen from the beginning.
No credile source has ever claimed WP sales went down quarter over quarter but there have been a number of reports erroneously claiming WP’s market share went down but these were always combining WP with Windows Mobile. But many were so wanting to show WP was declining they cited the combined numbers and reported them as WP numbers.
And more that ridiculous StatCounter crap. You do know it only makes you look even more clueless?
How big is that “3rd” ecosystem of yours? Market share? How many phones has that “momentum” managed to sell?
And StatCounter is a worthless sales analysis tool. It only measures internet page loads and not even accurately. Page loads != phone sales
You sure like to make yourself look ridiculous with comments like this.
What is worthless about crunching data from 100s of billions of page views from website logs from every country in the world. It is obvious you don’t like statcounter data because of it showing the continued momentum of WPs growth.
There are about 16 million WP phones out there, 100,000 apps in the marketplace with very high developer interest in bringing more. Any more questions?
“The N8 sold 4+ millions device until the infamous Feb 11 “Thing””
Just to correct you a little. N8 sold 4+ million in the first quarter (Q4/2010) alone. Not until Feb 11.
surface tab RT priced @ 599$ for RT and 999 for pro.
as expected.. I actually thought the core i5 version will be over 1k
The prices are not set yet and won’t be for a couple of months. I suspect the Pro models will start between $899 and $999 but the 128GB version fully accessorized will be considerably more.
What’s the point of these endless StatCounter stats? They don’t measure sales. They measure internet usage and not even that comprehensively. Different devices have different internet usage levels that depend on how convenient its internet use is and how rich the users of the devices are. Whether they can afford to use internet with their phones. Expensive devices (easier browsing) and wealthy people (affording the internet usage) will always be over-presented. Poorer people and cheaper devices will always be under-presented.
It’s pointless to draw any conclusions from StatCounter. The only numbers that have any meaning are the actual sales numbers and StatCounter doesn’t measure them.
What is the point of anything here? We’re just watching a space that interest us (Nokia and stuff related to Nokia) with whatever tools we’ve got. We don’t have sales data, especially country by country sales data which we’ll probably never get from Nokia, which means looking at something is better than looking at nothing.
It doesn’t mean we look at the data and think of it as some kind of accurate evidence, just a little harmless fun analyzing and thinking whatever it might imply. For example, from the data we can surmise Windows Phone is doing better in Finland than in Germany. Add to that other qualitative analysis/guesswork and the data makes sense.
If can I made my contribution to the discussion, I want to share with you a chart that every 2/3 weeks I update with the most recent data from Statcounter (originally for my blog, now not more update).
I take every nation on Statcounter where the Lumia are distributed and the Wp marketshare is available and I made an average of all the data collected day by day. That’s the result!
http://i50.tinypic.com/2m5ec8i.jpg
*Date are written DD/MM/YYYY
And these are the data not divided in EU/NA
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=9swchv&s=6
nice data and interesting extrapolation, would be interesting to have a risk extrapolation based on the acquired deviation … how do you had the data…do you take population into account? Any way good stuf…
No, it’s not weighted on the populations.
I don’t understand what you mean for ” have a risk extrapolation based on the acquired deviation”, but on the second chart the estimated standard deviation is 0,24: 16% of the last market share percentage (1,51%) calculated on 16th of june
So here Finland as the same specific wight as say Germany?? if so I would try to wight those values a bit… or just use global Europe…
What I mean is that based on the error and creating max and minimum confidence intervals with say the typical 95% trust create 2 max and min extrapolations… this would be very useful and IMO more accurate than only the current average based extrapolation as it would give a measure of the confidence interval. A tight interval = good a wide interval = not so good….
Still good joob.. I just like math and statistics specifically.
Ja, I agree with you. But I think it’s so useful to create the 95% interval on a time series… it’s IMHO illogical.
I try to made a weighting based on the population (2,1 bln of variuos nation, China included), and on 16th June the elaboration gave me a marketshare on about 1/3 of estimated global population (7%ì bln) of 0,72%.
* I think is NOT so useful…
Davix: Interesting, thank you.
Feel free to use these chart or ask a specific extrapolation.
Nice work.
Nokia is a thing of the past with MS. Only one more NOKIA phone (not MS phone) to buy.. Pureview 808.. Rest in peace Nokia
Tnx for last +20 years. No MS phone for me.. never ever.. . BTW: Its abt time to change the name of this blog soon.. MMB (Not for me 
)
Reading this thread again… I only blame myself for not sticking to what I said a couple of days ago: there is no point in having this conversation here.
It will just blow up, because too many people (not all of course) are too polarized to be able to look at it without prejudice. I posted a bunch of harmless numbers that anyone can verify, to the best of my ability and with considerable free-time effort to get them into one graph – and without any claims or analysis, and still the response is as it is. Conspiracy theories and ridicule after another, just because I posted some numbers that actually show Windows Phone doing pretty badly. That’s the greatest irony, I get blamed for being a WP fanboy or an MS mole when I post numbers where Windows Phone does badly. Sick, isn’t it?
Well guess what guys, there is no conspiracy, I don’t work for Nokia or for Microsoft or for anyone related to their PR or the like and I’m not fabricating anything. What I present is what to the best of my ability I think is accurate. I’m an unrelated software developer, technology buff and a long-time Nokia device user who comes here on his own time, doing his own thing. Sure, I want Nokia to do well, this is a Nokia fan blog after all, but that’s the extent of my bias. Don’t confuse my optimism with attempts to cloud realities. Not only that, I see the same response to Jay’s and other blog posters writing here. Attack after another, when somebody dares to be hopeful. What a sad, sad place this has become.
This. This is the main reason I’ve stopped commenting altogether here. The amount of misery and hate is just so suffocating it’s not even amusing anymore. Andre stopped writing here since he was attacked essentially non-stop. One has to ask this question: Why? Why do Nokia fans attack other Nokia fans so viciously continuously? What’s the benefit, other than to wallow in the hatred/pity?
Yet, I must applaud Jay, Aliqudsi, Michael, Prashant and you Janne for writing these articles. Also I’d like to thank noki and incognito for providing another angle (with less animosity than some others, such as Tomi as of late?) to these discussions. I still wonder how they change so easily to ad hominems…
These articles you Janne write are more often than not quite insightful. I admit they have their errors every now and then, but what doesn’t? What irks me to no end are the usual “Blame Elop, praise x” and other conspiracies that run rampant here in the comments. How bothersome.
Oh well, back to lurking methinks.
KeiZka:
Thank you.
And obviously I make mistakes too and welcome feedback and corrections always. The problem is that more often than not I get attacked, not for the mistakes (which deserve to be corrected), but for something the reader’s prejudice and own mistakes are causing.
Sad thing, that. Makes good discussion and give-and-take really hard.