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MNB RG: July sees great Finland Lumia growth in StatCounter

| July 28, 2012 | 34 Replies

This is Janne’s latest heads up, following the progress of Lumia in Finland with statcounter. Just to repeat again, statcounter is an estimate of market share through browser usage on a particular OS of all current handsets in use not just those sold in a particular time frame.

As we’ve been wondering what the Windows Phone 8 effect will be on Lumia’s trajectory after the late June announcement, at least in Finnish StatCounter stats July, with a few days left still, may be turning out to be the biggest growth month for Lumia ever – now matching in monthly averages even the February Lumia launch month (2.17%. growth in July so far vs. 2.18%. growth in February) and still on the rise. It would seem that the launch of Lumia 610 and Lumia 900 in late May have ignited some summer-lasting fires and WP8 Osbourne effect isn’t there yet (?).

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The monthly average for installed (mobile Internet use) base for Windows Phone (aka Lumia in the case of Finland), to the extent StatCounter can be used to guess such figures, now sits at 11.52%, while the daily averages hover at 13% – almost 15% and have exceeded Symbian on multiple days. The gains seem to come mostly from Symbian and secondarily from iOS. Android has seen some losses after Lumia’s launch, but seems to have rebounded to a somewhat of a flat line.

http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-weekly-201220-201229

Trend of growth is not as large as Finland in other places but it’s still nice to see. Growth wise, from June to July, UK at, France at 29.8%, 17.6% UK, 18.6% USA, 27.3% Germany, Italy 66.0%, 12.5% China. Looking at the change of % growth of the past 6 month, WP is on a positive trend. Slow but steady.

For Nokia, it is not even 1 year yet with Lumia, and given the current challenges of the platform and the difficulties externally through super strong competition this looks to be a moderately decent performance.

It’ll be very tense until the Nokia Lumia with WP8 arrive.

Cheers Janne for the tip.

 

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Category: Nokia

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  • Janne

    Obviously the above is just following the numbers out of interest. StatCounter gains in Finland for Lumia are irrelevant in the bigger picture. So take it just as fun and games.

    Some token notes, not attempting any completeness here, just browsing and making notes: The end of July has seen significant-looking gains for Windows Phone in a couple of countries. We know from history that StatCounter tunes it’s information gathering from time to time. There might be errors or errors corrected, it will be hard to tell. The good news is, though, the growth story for Windows Phone seems to keeping up for months now in most of the StatCounter markets I checked.

    But of course the numbers in other countries are tiny compared to Finland, in the less than 1 – 2% range of installed base.

    When I last did this, I was asked to post stats from other countries as well, so my attempt at that in textual form this time. Didn’t have the energy for graph-making.

    Note to remember: July is the beginning of the first full quarter with near-global Lumia availability, and the wide availability of cheap Lumia in the form of Lumia 610. These should help Lumia numbers. On the other hand, the impending WP8 Osbourne effect should hurt Lumia numbers in Q3. With those in mind…

    So, some looks at those other 1 – 2% countries, there is no order here, I just wrote something as I browsed them. It should be noted that in other countries there are likely more non-Lumia Windows Phones than in Finland, although I doubt all that many.

    The UK saw greater growth for Windows Phone in July than in any recent months – bypassing Symbian. I wonder how much of this has to do with the ramping up of the Lumia 610 and thus extending the price-range availability of Lumia. UK also has the Olympic’s effect, potentially distorting local figures. As another example, Germany saw great Windows Phone gains compared to May or June, in July – now sitting at 1.95% and the dailies hovering 2 – 3% range. Europe as a whole has grown to 1.67%, dailies exceeding 2% regularly now.

    In UK, May: 0.99%, June: 1.08%, July: 1.27%.

    In Germany, May: 1.63%, June: 1.5%, July: 1.92%.

    In Russia, Windows Phone has finally bumped upwards enough so that we get data instead of “Other”. Windows Phone there has seen some a little hard-to-trust-looking gains during the summer, monthly average now sitting at 3.2%. It was under 1% until June (we had no data from Russia in StatCounter earlier because it was in “Other”), 1.29% in June and 3.2% in July. Dailies are wildly hovering 1 – 10% range in July, suggesting that StatCounter has some trouble there. It is therefore hard to tell what the reality is, other than it seems to be growing, looking at the graph from a longer period.

    In China, May: 0.38%, June: 0.56%, July: 0.59%.

    In the U.S, May: 1.09%, June: 1.02%, July: 1.21% – back to growth in July. Nokia’s promotions having an effect?

    In France, May: 1.25%, June: 1.14%, July: 1.48%.

    In Belgium, May: 1.43%, June: 1.75%, July: 2.07%.

    In Italy, May: 1.64%, June: 1.62%, July: 2.66%.

    In Spain, May: 1.41%, June: 1.64%, July: 1.75%.

    In Netherlands, May: 1.12%, June: 1.17%, July: 1.24%.

    In Brazil, Windows Phone also finally bumps from “Other” to a category of its own in late-July dailies (sitting at round 0.8%). Sony Ericsson falls of the map there.

    In India “Other” is raising steadily (now over 1.6%), but Windows Phone is still grouped there. If that means Windows Phone is below the lowest listed member, iOS, that it means it is lower than 0.73% in India.

    So, seems to be good news in Finland, and news of very slow growth elsewhere. Same-old-same-old, then, but at least July is showing growth in many places, which is better than – well – no growth. :) July seems to be showing overall better numbers than June.

    Feel free to add further notes and analysis, I merely skimmed through the current statuses. Lacking better numbers, StatCounter-spotting is at least something to watch.

    p.s. Iceland’s statistical relevance was so heavily contested last time that it is missing from above so that there won’t be any further hulabaloo over that. :) For those keeping track, monthly averages over the summer have remained quite flat there, July being nearly the same as May level, both a little lower than June level and all above the European average. Let’s instead do Estonia, which isn’t at all that much more reliable, but just because we love our neighbors here in Finland: May: 1.33%, June: 1.69%, July: 2.52%. ;)

    • Janne

      Monthly averages for July now sit at 11.54%, up 0.02%. from yesterday, so it has, for the moment at least, become the faster-growing month since Lumia launch in Finland, now exceeding even the launch month of February by 0.01%. and still a couple of days remain.

      • wp7lob

        Janne, there is a link called download. Clicking on it downloads a doc file that shows share of all OSes including those in ‘other’ category.

    • lax

      this is one long comment i took the time to read. +1 man.

    • Keith too

      Nice work Janne.

      It’s surprising good growth considering how close WP8 is. We should start a pool on what will be the first day that Finland’s WP usage reaches 50%.

      • Janne

        I think the big test for Lumia in Finland is around the 20%+ mark. I don’t doubt Lumia will catch up with Symbian and replace its share of recent times. I’m quite confident it will, but starting to take real big share from Android and iOS will be the big test.

    • manu

      today seeing a huge hoarding of lumia 610 outside a major retailer i just check out lumia 610.and the salesman recommended me an array of android devices over lumia series calling it a disaster.

      • Keith too

        I can totally understand why an Android fan thinks Lumia’s are a disaster. And it will will be far more disastrous for them once the Apollo/PureView phones are out.

        • loci

          hehehe… good one ;-)

        • ashok pai

          yeah, will wait for the sales. right now lumia are killing everything in the market.

    • ms.nokia

      thanks for the post , its a great read.
      maybe the long road back to the top has finally started.

    • jiipee

      If I had time and energy, it could be intereating to try to build a model, which translates the monthly variances to estimated sales share a month/quarter.

      btw. I dont think 610 will be Osborned, the effect should hit more L900 since the more tech savvy people are more aware of what is going on and specs. 610 is already slightly limited what comes to apps (and in the future even more since optimization of WP8 apps might be too much for some developers)

  • Svedu

    I want more good signs like these. And on September 5:th its really time to deliver something, not only talk about the future visions.

  • Mobira

    Someone has created a nice tool to get these figures out rapidly. It says these are Lumia stats, but as the data is coming from the very same Statcounter, it is actually WP stats.

    Click the pull down menu and then using your keyboard arrows left and right, you can quickly change country.

    http://lumiastats.dyndns.org/

    • Janne

      Thanks, must check that out!

  • Janne

    It is really interesting to watch Q3 for Lumia. Osbourning is a real danger, but there are also certain things to feel good about.

    There are many things going for Lumia in Q3. Plusses and minuses:

    + Near-global availability for the first time for the full quarter
    + First quarter of wide availability of the full Lumia range, including 610
    + New places still appearing in Q3, e.g. South America and new operator deals
    + New colors and promotions for the Lumia range
    + App store matured into 100 000+ apps range, making Lumia more attractive
    – Impending Windows Phone 8 will eat especially into high-end sales
    – Operators/retailers may reluctance related to the above

    • nn

      - The markets they are adding now are insignificant and wont change the situation, they officially abandoned them anyway. The mass market availability was reached in Q1/Q2.
      – Likewise for new phones, at best they will help to just hold ground after the first Lumia’s fade out.
      – More money bleeding on promotions of unsellable phones and payments to developers for porting apps to WP.

      • Janne

        - The markets they are adding now are insignificant and wont change the situation

        I agree that the markets being added in Q3 are probably insignificant overall, but every little counts. Some new launches are happening this quarter and that helps some.

        , they officially abandoned them anyway.

        Disagree. They didn’t abandon any markets, instead chose to focus marketing efforts and in-house activities to certain markets, while letting their partners handle other markets.

        The mass market availability was reached in Q1/Q2.

        While technically most of the significant markets were reached in Q2, Lumia 900 and 610 overall became available quite late in Q2 worldwide. For example the ramp-up of Lumia 610 in China happened only at the end of Q2, if not in Q3 (they had new operator deals there). Other new operator deals for Lumia 610 have only been announced in Q3. Some South American production and launched of Lumia are happening this summer etc. This means that the products launched in Q2 are just hitting their stride in Q3, or volumes may be rolling out only this side of Q3. (As for Q1, not nearly enough of significant markets were properly reached by then, clearly evident in Q1 vs. Q2 Lumia sales numbers.)

        - Likewise for new phones, at best they will help to just hold ground after the first Lumia’s fade out.

        That is certainly partially true, but Lumia 610 does represent a significant (and attractive-looking) departure from the rest of the range, price-wise. While feature-wise more limited than other Lumias, it might allow Lumia to reach all sorts of new markets that are not nearly as interested in things like WP8. This could be significant for Lumia sales volumes in Q3, because Lumia 610 is probably a little bit more immunte to the WP8 Osbourne effect than the rest of the range. It might save Nokia from a Q3 disaster.

        - More money bleeding on promotions of unsellable phones and payments to developers for porting apps to WP.

        This isn’t relevant to the volumes of Lumia marketshare this thread is about. (Although of course it is a fair point in other regards.)

        A while back I expected this from Nokia:

        Q1: 2 million (known)
        Q2: 3-4 million (turned out to be 4 million)
        Q3: 4-6 million (but could be significantly less due to WP8 effect, perhaps as wide a range as 1-6 million I asterisked then)
        Q4: 10 million (ballpark)

        If Nokia does reach 4-6 million in Q3, I think it is because of the plusses I listed. Luckily it should be easy to check come Q3 results.

        • nn

          “Focusing” is PR speak for abandoning everything else. They are doing it because they don’t have the money to keep the global sales channel.

          Lumia 800 are sold in China from the begging of Q2, we even had the obligatory screenshots of random web shops that showed it’s bestseller there. Of course you can always play the endless game of waiting for this next phone and that next country, but it doesn’t change the fundamental fact that WP is failure. Lumia 900 or 610 are continuation of the same, they failed to gain any significant traction where they were introduced, so hoping they will suddenly catapult Nokia out of the single digit market share in other countries is delusional.

          Nokia is selling 10M phones now, and the devices unit is bleeding 300M dollars per quarter, the whole company 1 billion. And that’s when more than half of sold smartphones are the profitable Symbian/MeeGo phones.

          • Bloob

            Nokia is not losing a billion per quarter, only the smartphone unit is losing money atm, and even it is not all that bad.

            WP phones have failed to blow our minds (not surprising really), but they continue to gain market share in a very competetive market. Admittedly, I was disappointed in WP performance in NA during Q2, and in Europe Q1.

          • Janne

            I don’t think Lumia 610/900 will catapult Nokia anywhere, but I do hope they manage to keep on sustaining or even growing Lumia sales until WP8 hits. Maybe reach that 4-6 million Lumias sold in Q3, I’m hoping.

            We can agree that WP7.x overall has been a failure on the market with only mediocre PR and app dev successes, but I don’t think it is a terminal failure. It is still growing and WP8 is again a significant step forward, which hopefully means even more growth. It is a marathon, not a sprint.

            And I don’t at all share your view that some Lumia 800 introductions in China is representative of what they can reach if they continue expanding the range of devices, prices and operator deals. New devices, prices and deals reach new customers.

            Most of the millions of Symbians Nokia has been shipping in recent years have been very cheap devices. Nokia is only now getting WP near the prices they’ve been selling Symbian at. They might make new gains there with the 610.

            High-end, yes they didn’t conquer that with WP7, that is true… But it is a start that IS still growing. There is hope yet.

            Q3 might be brutal, though.

            • nn

              You are like general cheering his men were able to take over one street without realising the whole city is encircled by enemy and the supply lines are disrupted.

              Nokia sold 4 million N8 in it’s first quarter in a lot smaller market, WP sold 4 million of all type of phones after three quarters. That tells you where the things are standing.

              And the problem is precisely that they are increasing sales primarily by launching phones at new price points and in new countries, not by growing WP to wider audience. WP failed to break out of ~2 % territory and although Nokia maybe able to sell 10 million phones when they cover all the price ranges, when WP8 arrives it will face the same fundamental problem as a year ago – how to reach more people beyond the few percent? So far they have no solution for that.

              • http://www.nomasla.net FireDragon

                N8 had several advantages, Camera was on top of that. Then its design is really great, body material was superb. And it was a NEW Symbian coming along. Things were not too bad at that time either compare to today.

        • muhs

          i don’t know if 10 million lumias in q4 is low or not. but i really wish that they can reach 15 million lumias and somehow 5 million symbian units.
          i really hope that nokia reaches the 20+ million smartphone units in q4( i know i am too demanding ,lol)

  • Joris Bos

    Don’t we all love these times of difficulties? I’m soooo curious to see what will happen in the 3 months ahead .. :)

    • loci

      So true – interesting times are often much more telling and exciting than good times :-)

  • http://www.nomasla.net FireDragon

    I haven’t read much of the comments. I think Lumia growth will not face too much impact of Windows Phone 8 simply because if WE, people on Internet Tech or Mobile sites knows what is to come doesn’t mean everyone knows the same. Consumers, or say large number of consumers might not know about it at all. I personally know people who wants to own Lumia but doesn’t know a first thing about it, they just want it, some of them might have it by now.

    Some wants it because it is cool new mobile from Nokia, if you show them N9, they will still call it Lumia (yes I tried it). Most of these people I am talking about have no idea about its limitations or functions simply because it doesn’t concern them. What they see in simple promo videos was enough to attract (iPhone users included).

    • Bloob

      Agreed.

      It might affect the sales of the higher end phones like 900 and 800, but I don’t think much will happen before they announce their next phones. Basically, those who were aware of (even the possibility of) WP8, were already affecting sales in Q2 and their contribution is unlikely to change much in Q3.

      I am going to boldly predict (again); 5 million Lumias sold in Q3. ;)

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  • poiman

    WP8 has great new features but they are on pair with what the best in the industry are doing. I mean, nothing that we have seen so far is new. It would be important for WP8 to have features that the other OSs can’t do. But I guess that is not going to happen. What is going to make WP8 different are the new Lumia phones with PureView, but I’m afraid that is not going to be enough because if those phones are all about their fantastic camera people will look at them in the same way they are looking now at the 808… they think it’s only a good camera that can make phone calls.

    Nokia is probably going to make an average specs Windows Phone with an outstanding PureView camara.
    Samsung and HTC will make Windows Phones with great specs and average cameras.
    You know what? THIS SUCKS!
    If Windows Phone wants to be a major OS it has to have phones with the best specs in the market, the best camara in the market and the best app store in the market. If the final cost is €700, then let it be €700. If it is the best people will buy it anyway. There are many people out there with iPhones and Galaxy SIII and we all know the prices of those phones.

  • blackbird

    as far as i know in china lumia sells only with one carrier (covering 20% market share of smartphone in china), in usa only with att, in many markets the data dont include the full Q2 cause they started to sell late. there is room to reach more customers with more carriers and the various markets targeted for the full Q3. I expect 6 millions lumia in Q3.

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