To the ‘analysts’ that love to rain on the Nokia Lumia parade
News that’s exploding yesterday across the blogosphere is that Nokia+Microsoft’s attempts with the Lumia just might not work. That’s due to the amazing efforts of analysts that base the success of the Lumia on:
1) 5-6 days of sale
2) availability in 6 countries
Amazingly, many have been reporting the Forbes article verbatim, pointing out the supposed ‘dud’ that was the N8. During the first quarter that was not a dud, and for those repeating it blindly, shame on you. Those reporting that Nokia’s stock has plummeted. I’m no stock analyst but didn’t all the stock plummet in line with Nokia? RIM is like in 8B? Anyway, less of that.
Let’s look at some things in perspective again, as pointed out by another Forbes article (and from an author who’s name I instantly like already, Tero Kuittinnen) that looks at the anatomy.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2011/11/22/anatomy-of-the-nokia-downdraft/
1) Supposed quality issues. Tero notes that this has followed nearly all smartphone launches. After positive news, there’s suspicion of poor battery life. Not something I’ve encountered myself yet though it’s early days. There’s apparently no shortage of doubts regarding Nokia. That’s true. In this time, it is mostly unknown. The brand reputation has been declining since iPhone and there’s nothing that has come out since except possibly N9 and 800 that has been received quite as positively in terms of the entire experience It is going to take a while to get it into consumers minds that Nokia are once again producing some great new devices (lets not forget that Belle will also push Symbian to a place where it doesn’t look that old or decrepit, hey S^3 vanilla?). What Tero had in mind regarding doubt is the US network’s attitudes to Windows Phone but reminds us it’s hard to evaluate Q4 sales when so many more KEY operators are yet to launch the Lumia. There’s still Vodafone Spain, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan as well as the 2012 China, USA and other 30+ countries in the roster. The Lumia is a new Nokia with the most unheard of Windows Phone in a market saturated with the thought that the only things that exist is iPhone and Android.
2) Some positive things, Tero says that early days at Vodafone UK, The Nokia Lumia 800 was outselling the new Blackberry, Samsung and HTC devices. More importantly, this was stronger than ANY of the previous Nokia Symbian smartphones had managed in 2010 (he also notes 2011 though there are no new strong Symbian phones this year). This might not last, but Tero reckons it is a bona fide hit at both Orange UK, and Vodafone – two operators that were extremely cold towards Nokia’s summer Symbian launches. Own anectodal stories from Orange shops say they’ve sold out of Lumia accessories and have sold a lot of Lumias. That’s just one shop in one area of the city and nothing to go on. But still good to hear. Tero believes that Nokia pulled off the strong UK showing largely due to the unusual hardware design of the Lumia 800 – which everyone always instantly just instantly is in awe of. Something we had been expecting based on the rapturous arrival of the N9 and the praise of the brilliant hardware.
Check out below, a techblog in the UK that looks at a wide range of devices – really digging the Lumia 800.
“Nokia Lumia 800 Unboxing & First Look… the iPhone 4S is gone”
“feels like a quality piece of kit, very responsive, loving the screen, feels like such a substantial and well made mobile phone. Love it so far”
Video by davomrmac for Geekanoids
It is perhaps much too early to decide, analysts, the success of the Nokia Lumia platform based on a few short days. And if so, the surge from those days should indicate something else, no? The fact that sale have been stronger than previous Nokias that have still sold more than the entire WP in one quarter is still great, no? To comment on the success when the Lumia is but a starting point and there are higher ends coming next year? When the phone is launched in only 6 countries from less than 6 full days of sale? When India, China, USA are yet to join selling? What about discussing the quiet, poor push of WP by other manufacturers and hence the dismal performances in the last few quarters (As well as still no recognition of Windows Phone as a valid option against iPhone to which Android is now). This first launch isn’t expected to pull the same highs as the accepted brands of Android and of course the iPhone. It takes time to grow such a following. It doesn’t really help when so called analysts barely give the thing a chance based on data from just a few days (to which, even their own conclusion is questionable).
I’ll end this now as I have Uni to rush to. Tero says that RIM’s massive share in UK and decent base in Germany may be vulnerable to the still upcoming Lumia offensive – even with the bigger Nokia Lumia guns not coming till 2012. Nokia apparently does NOT need to attract consumers from Apple or Google and they might never do that. But, in the next six months, capturing old Symbian users (NOT symbian fans aware of the brilliance, just those that use those basic smartphone features and could potentially move to any platform) might and 10-30% of Blackberry users might be enough. If anyone wants numbers, let’s repeat Nokia have said they’re bringing Nokia Windows Phones in volume in 2012. 2012. They just wanted the Lumia out now to show they can get things quickly – and they did.
Shorting Nokia was a great idea last week, when the telecom sector clearly started getting wobbly. I’m not sure the early Lumia sales are as weak as bears now seem to believe.
The Lumia 800 isn’t a dud product. The design is loved. The OS has met with praises. The combination is positive. The 800 is far from perfect but the reaction from consumers has been very positive. Nokia’s efforts for this quarter rests in pushing it to people. Obviously with the initial surge it’s working. Just keep it up, PLEASE!
Source: Forbes
Cheers Joni for the tip!
Category: Nokia, Windows Phone
I cross my fingers WP7 will fail. Elop and Nokia too.
If you want Nokia to fail, why are you on this blog? It is clearly a Nokia blog for Nokia fans.
Well put sir! +1
This seems more like a WindowsPhone-Nokia blog. (in that order)
I do want Nokia’s effort with WindowsPhone to fail. If that ends up killing Nokia, so be it. Elop deserves it.
Someone else will pick up the slack.
You sound like a sore loser.
I love my nokia lumia and everyone in my family that sees it, loves it too.
Only gripe I have is no front facing camera for tango, dont know how to choose profiles other than loud and vibrate, and how to forward emails. Apart from that, its great. Much better than my initial experience on n8.
click on the Reply button and the bottom option below reply, reply all will be forward.
If sore loser means the same as “a long term customer that has promoted Nokia products up to the N95-1, and then back again from the N900 onwards to the N9″ then yes I am a sore loser.
Companies generally don’t fare too well when they regard their customers as sore losers.
As a customer I’ve got more “power” than I do in the voting booth at election time, since my “customer power” is magnified by the amount of purchases I do and generate from consultation to others. So even if it’s just me, then I do put my chip in to make others succeed now that Nokia has failed my expectations.
A bit of justification for that feeling, Jay:
1. People feel bitter about losing Symbian and Maemo.
2. People hate Microsoft for doing that to them (specifically Elop).
3. If Microsoft wins this one, it will only make Elop more arrogant about dominating a European company in this way.
4. This will mean more American business practices (pragmatism and lack of decency/fair play) within Nokia which often aren’t acceptable to European mentality. (This part also means going along with closing European factories, laying off more workers, outsourcing all production, as has been hinted at already by Elop.)
5. It may also mean even more focus on WP and forgetting other developments like Meltemi (which is not a good thing).
6. If Elop fails, he probably gets the boot. Which can possibly lead to a reversal of previous decisions and a rebirth of Symbian/Maemo development (if Nokia survives the failure).
All in all I can sympathise with those who want Nokia to fail – in this one concrete “strategy”.
There is too much that has been butchered by Elop in favour of WP. That’s bound to make people angry.
I agree with you. I want WP7 to fail and if Nokia survives let it pick up MeeGo.
Nokia’s next option would be to become an Android OEM.
I agree with you!
Well..yeah that is exactly how I feel.
I can’t say I want Nokia to fail but I have grave reservations concerning the current strategy.
If you consider the43 main ecosystems currently Apple / Android / RIM / Symboan of these RIM is the weakest both in terms of hardware, software and services whilst Symbian as we all know is dead man walking. Now RIM may still be a force in the Enterprise but again enterprises tend to lag the consumer market.
If you are new to Smartphones then Android has the lowest cost offerings and widest array of handsets, Apple has the most apps and tight integration, RIM has BBM and email, Symbian has a strong but declining following and is available on a varierty of hardware and pricepoints, WP Ecosystem unique features? ease of use, office.
If you are currently with one of the 4 ecosystems then what does WP offer that will make you switch?
The problem with the current WP strategy is that it wants to be like IOS – integrated, tied down, smooth experience but then also like Android – available on multiple hardware. The thing is it’s neither.
WP like IOS is smooth as its optimised for a tight hardware stack unlike Android where vendors it seems just install it, skin it and provide little or none optimisation. The benefit of the Android approach is that its available on so many different combinations of hardware from scrren size to full touch keyboard etc.
WP tight chassis control negates this aspect as phone manufacturers really cant change this at all – they have control over things like the screen tech, radio stack, design. So when we come onto price – WP phones are cheaper than the Iphone but are priced at the same level as top end Android phones but without the same range in hardware specs.
If Apple is the leader in profits, Android in volume then WP, Symbian and RIM are all figthing for third.
1. Losing Symbian is a good thing.
2. Maemo was killed by OPK by letting Moblin subsume it.
3. Stop being so nationalist. Racism is unbecoming.
4. They’re not American business practices. They’re business practices.
5. You’re the one who’s obviously forgetting the big push S40 has been getting as you’ve got yourself worked up in a rage over Windows Phone.
6. If Elop fails, Nokia is done for. No reversal.
Nationalism is racism now?
Your ignorance never fails to astound me.
All of your “counter-points” are simply drivel.
JAY! Because we love Meego
You shouldn’t. Loving Maemo is acceptable. MeeGo though, that was the unholy love child.
Love the lumia 800 bought it at the day it came out but i have some of the issues like the battery which only lasts 8 hours at 100% and keeps getting worse and the sound sometimes goes wrong, i hope that the upcoming update fixes it cause i don’t want to send it to nokia
and lose it for a few weeks
If battery is a major issue, you can set to battery saver mode. That means you’ll have to manually refresh mails. I found that a culprit on my Omnia 7 when I get over 300mails a day. However not had an issue so far with my Lumia.
It has been off battery since 8 and has a tiny slice out.Been using to read on the bus, check mail, browsing a bit. :S
If Nokia stocks has been shorted then it’s likely that when they come to settle the Nokia share price should bounce back a bit.
Analysts have their own agenda but powerful analysts can affect the price – it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. As a tech blog I suppose you are not that interested in the share price swings as that can change quite rapidly. However my only concern is that an underperforming share price can lead to investor issues and possible ownership/control issues.
Agree with setting battery saver mode and also check the background agents in settings. Some apps do fairly large downloads every half hour which is pretty deadly on the battery. Personally I turn off pretty much all background agents unless I have a particular use for them. Most of them are just prefetching data you may never even look at depending on the app.
You buy Windows Phone means you support censorship on the Internet, you support FASCISM!!!
Microsoft Support That Awful Online Censorship Act !!!
Microsoft and Apple support censorship bill (SOPA) !!!
http://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-and-apple-support-censorship-bill
If they fail to pass this censorship act now because it gets widespread public disgust Micsrosoft with its allies will certainly try to pull it next time!
Protect IP Act Breaks the Internet
Odd that you’re correctly using the word fascism. Go figure.
However, given Microsoft’s stance on piracy, which is that they want to cut it down by making it inconvenient, rather than attacking the pirates directly, it’s unlikely that they’re in favour of the censorship laws specifically, and are just looking at the anti-piracy benefit.
I really hate analysts and speculators, they drive the market in the way they want it to go with their influence.
Hence we pay $4 a gallon for gas.
Yup, we should actually be paying a lot more for gas.
Oh, I can just about SMELL the despair of Windows fanboys like Jay. It’s a sweet, sweet smell.
Anyone could’ve seen this already in February — NBFs (Natural Born Failures) are rather easy to spot. They’re the products that generate mildly positive reviews, but see almost no uptake in the first six months or so, and never will.
And Windows Phone is no big loss either. There’s no need for Microsoft’s monopolistic bullshit in the mobile business, and the OS (mainly the UI) is mostly just meh, what with the horrible use of space, uninspiring look and generally me-too workflow. Add to that forced use of virtual machine (never a good idea, especially in a mobile device with small cache) and alien graphics interfaces (in mobile devices anyway) and you’re no longer wondering why it took almost a year for a simple game like Angry Birds to show up.
I’m a Nokia fan if there ever was one, but not a fan of the name only. The Nokia we once knew is broken, torn apart and dead inside, and all that remains is the shell, name — there’s no point cheering to the whoring of the last bit of prestige in it.
I wrote similar posts against so called analysts that tried to attack N8 last year, as well as other sites that attacked N8.
I’m a Nokia fan first and foremost, then Maemo, then WP. I’m trying to defend Nokia with the news that we have heard that conflicts with what analysts are saying.
Feel free to continue trying to trample my enthusiasm for Nokia. It’s rather sad that you’d call yourself a Nokia fan yet be blissfully happy in the possible downfall of Nokia’s strategy, as to find my frustration of ill presented Nokia reports as sweet.
Like he said, the Nokia we knew and loved is dead. Gone. Killed and violated by the likes of Elop.