Nokia Stock upgraded to “Outperform” due to likely success of Nokia and Windows Phone as the third platform.
Forbes is reporting that Nokia’s shares are getting a boost from, here we go, an analyst from Credit Suisse, Kulbinder Garcha. He is raising Nokia’s rating from Underperform to OUTPERFORM, with a new target of 6 euros up from 4.
Why? No, it’s not due to the reports of that other ‘analyst’ with love. They reckon that Windows Phone is going to be the third major cell phone platform because of Nokia.
“We fundamentally believe that Nokia’s focus on Windows will allow the company to drive a recovery through 2012 in both its top-line and earnings,”
“Longer term, we believe that Nokia can command a 13% market share within smartphones driven by Windows Phone platform based on three key factors,”
“First, we see sensible and aggressive pricing from the outset with initial Lumia devices priced between €180 to €300 to carriers. Second, we see decent support for Windows ecosystem as confirmed by our recent survey of carriers. Third, we believe that the quality of Windows platform is quite good, which, combined with Nokia’s brand, distribution, scale and [intellectual property] should enable it to capture smartphone share making it the third ecosystem behind Android and Apple.”
Garcha says that in a survey of 27 key exects at global carriers, they are very supportive of Nokia’s attempts, 85% of whom want the third ecosystem, with 77% saying that will be Nokia. Garcha ads that their survey showed that “both subsidy and volume share is expected to be markedly higher for Windows Phone over the next 12 months.”
2012 is when things start clicking in to place.
- Nokia Windows Phones in volume
- Nokia Windows Phone in high end
- Nokia Windows Phone at entry level
- Nokia Windows Tablet
- Nokia Belle updates
- Meltemi/Swipe for Next Billion
- New Symbian Phones, possibly very high end
Source: forbes
Cheers Viipottaja for the tip!
Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone
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Way too optimistic, if you ask me. And my guess is as good as the one of those ‘analysts’, both the ones predicting the doom and the ones predicting a miraculous recovery – both are not based on any credible data, or at least not on a statistically significant data. After all, isn’t that the same Forbes that a week ago wrote that Nokia will crash and burn even tho they still keep their $7 target rating (which is way higher than the reality atm.)
We need sales reports for Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 before we can make any assumptions. If Nokia dares to release them, that is.
Posting more to point out that stock is moving because of this rating more so than what ElMu was tweeting about.
Yes, I am very cautious any time I read the word, “analyst” in the article. I’m immediately filled with, “well this might not be true or credible at all” doubts in the back of my mind.
I’m somewhat obviously happier about the more optimistic predictions (and there are enough reasons to have optimism for 2012) though right now, it is much too early to tell until maybe Q2/Q3 when the pieces of the puzzle come in to play to give a definitive verdict.
Oh, that’s for sure, it’s not even funny to indulge in the idea of one Eldar affecting the stock market. I’m just saying that this prediction, while it might tickle your inner-Nokian, is as optimistic as the opposite are pessimistic – the truth is usually between those two, but to which is it closer – we cannot know yet without enough relevant data.
Q4/Q1 results are the least data needed for even getting any kind of credible prediction, and yes, without the Q2/Q3 results in hand one will not be able to say with a straight face whether Nokia will survive or not. Generally, all recovery/total disaster reports/predictions/whatever ’til the at least the autumn this year should be taken with quite a big grain of salt.
Q2 will be an important quarter though. Because of the rollout of the Lumia 900 at the tail end of Q1, Q2 will see whether Nokia’s name is good enough to break through the NA market while still maintaining momentum in other markets, fighting off the Samsung clone machine.
If Nokia can shift more than 20 million smartphones in Q2, WP7 and Symbian combined, this means that Nokia is on its way up.
just to note it was not Forbes but Credit Suisse that upgraded their rating for the stock.
lol! “Garcha” in spanish means dick!
No more Meego phones in the future?!
MeeGo-not sure what’s happening with that name. The innards are going to Tizen. But the thing you guys all love, Qt Swipe, that’s for Nokia only and that’s coming to the next billion at least. Perhaps Symbian.
So no more N9 successors in the future?!
Nobody knows, it would be incredibly stupid to discontinue the line after such high praise all over the world, but what’s one more colossal stupidity in the series of stupidities done the last year (and previous years, it’s not as if they suddenly turned from a smart to a dumb company, just the amount of bad moves increased)…
So far, Nokia didn’t claim anything – apart from Elop’s that they are focusing on the WP now after being asked if the N9 will be continued if it is a success (which was badly interpreted as ‘No, we don’t want to continue the N9 line even if it is a success!’).
Generally, if their WP strategy flops (and it’s not sun n’ roses so far), whether they like it or not, they will have to return to the Maemo/MeeGo/whatever + Symbian strategy, but I think it would be too late for them. Tho, in that scenario, we might see a successor or two… While Microsoft is breathing down their necks, they probably won’t do anything to endanger their `WP or bust` strategy, and Maemo/MeeGo as the only viable internal competition will not be allowed to flourish. Not even as an experiment (or a disruption as Elop calls it).
+1. And consider this: Qt is still a big thing for Nokia, and will probably form a big pillar of support if the WP7 strategy fails.
I think Nokia should combine Maemo/MeeGo and Symbian into one OS – get the best bits from both.
Look at Samsung, they have 3 smartphone OSes – Android, Windows Phone and Bada.
Why can’t Nokia do the same?
Well, another Meego-Symbian-WP arguments.
Nowadays, Nokia had 4 incredibly OS out there:
1. “The Golden Boy” WP
2. “Old but well cooked” Symbian
3. “Young and beautiful but dying” Meego Harmattan
4. “OS for kids” S40
Normally, each “will” have their own targeting strategy, but currently Nokia doesn’t want The Golden Boy defeat by it’s young sister Meego in the same markets.
I’m still assuming that Meego won’t die tomorrow or the day after, they just waiting how’s the markets respond to the WP soldiers.
Sadly, the more positive respond to the WP, the more closer the Meego to meet his faith.
U forgot Maemo,”the superphone which could have stayed that if not for bad management”
Windows Phone won’t be allowed to flop. Microsoft can’t afford that to happen. Be assured that, it will be top 1 or 2 in 3 years (or less) time-frame.
However, what we can only wish for is Qt being allowed for development to Windows Phone (there is already a huge interest in WP Dev forums requesting this). If this happens, then it will be a GREAT news for both Qt developers and Nokia. Qt swipe can then come to Windows Phone as well.
Qt is already allowed for Windows 7 and Windows 8. Also, Microsoft has been lately talking about going towards HTML5 and native C/C++/C++0x. So, the Qt (QML) move could be a win-win for both the parties involved.
well what about declining marketshare for internet explorer?
microsoft hasn’t the power to force people to use windows phone – and therefore they wont get number 1 or 2
You make Microsoft sound like some kind of god. If WP doesn’t sell it doesn’t sell. There’s really nothing MS can do about it. Microsoft is not some omnipotent entity that can force unwilling people to buy WP with it’s supernatural powers.
Qt on Windows Phone will not happen. I’m sorry but IMO that’s a pipe dream.
Elop is killing Maemo/MeeGo/Nokia!
Elop is paid by Nokia but works for Microsoft…
Stop whining. One device in two years isn’t good enough, especially when that device is a grid based icon UI that isn’t best in class.
If Nokia want to live then they need something that differentiates them from the Apple/Android herd and that simply isn’t MeeGo.
MeeGo may, however, come back in the future when it’s been polished a bit.
isn’t best in his class?
“nothing comes close to it”:engadet
and there arre many, many other reviews praising meego.
and the buttonless swipe ui doesn’ t differentiates them from android, ios and wp? aha.
+1,000,000(meego handsets) i agree with you XD
“Nothing comes close to it” in what context?
One feature doesn’t a handset make. Just so you know.
Incidentally, how has the N9 sold in its release markets where the iPhone and SGS II are also available?
Hmm?
and now we know it sold really really well
j likes Engadget when they say something ‘nice’ about this OS, but hates Engadget if they slight this OS or Symbian….
You poor thing…
I thought it was going into Meltelmi. Tizen is the non-Nokia one, right?
Possibly yes. And yes also, Tizen is the Intel-Spamsung effort.
Hi Jay,
Just wanted to tell you eventhough maemo was based on linux kernel and called open source more than 50 % lines of code were Nokia Patent so is meego in n9 its not meego proper its harmattan 100 % nokia code and its only called meego due to Nokia Marketing decision technically its only meego compatible as both meego was supposed to support Qt APIS and framework.
So frankly speakin nothin in N9 goes to Tizen
Meego is dea.. just get over it
Very high end Symbian phones ? I’ve never heard that one before, and it makes very little sense. But.. I am down, bring them out
We have heard plenty of rumours about N8 successor being Symbian. I’d class that as very high end.
I was thinking about that as well, but.. that last sketch we saw didn’t look high end at all. I hope we get some premium built Symbian phones, that would be awesome, for those of who still prefer Symbian
Maybe n8 successor will look like the one that was supposed to be the lumia 900, would make sense since
1. it doesnt have a curved glass
2. It looked like it had bezels
and the team that designed n8 loved to put the bezels on my beloved camera smartphone
I would expect the N8 successor to be at about the same price-range as N8 is now. Unless it’s WP, in which case it will be ~20% more.
Nokia will actually price the WP equivalent cheaper.. Just look at the N9\800. Considering outsourced manufacturing, MS’s license fee and Qualcomm’s chipset, 800 should be theoretically more expensive than N9 but it isn’t.. And I’m sure that is going to continue until the design sharing phase ends..
Bring on Tizen at next Nokia world with a mini-N9!
Hell no!
Bring on Maemo 6/7/however you want to call it, eff Tizen – Tizen takes all the best parts of Maemo/Moblin/MeeGo and – throws them away. What you’re left with is a stripped down (no longer proper) GNU/Linux OS that runs a browser, and then everything happens in that browser… By that extension, why just not go for the webOS or even the ChromeOS? Or Android, it’s the same concept with a different app stack/UI layer…
Long story short, here’s all I have to say about the direction Tizen is heading at: http://talk.maemo.org/showthread.php?p=1098845#post1098845
+1 for bringing Maemo Next
OH SHEEEEET!!!! I CONFUSED TIZEN WITH MELTEMI!!!!!!!
awww shit i bet they are the same
Isn’t the OS on the N9 still Maemo6 with MeeGo API compatibility? I feel that this OS line is going to stay and we’ll see a device every year (or atleast one every 18\24 months) based on the newer versions of Maemo (named after a wind. Levantera or Matanuska perhaps for the next one?? As the last 5 names have been Bora, Chinook, Diablo, Fremantle & Harmattan).
Also, I remember Nokia stressing that MeeGo is dead which I presume is for the name rather than the entire OS line.
Technically, both ‘parties’ – the ones saying that this is incomplete MeeGo, and the ones saying that this is Maemo with MeeGo compatibility layer – are correct.
It’s not really pure Maemo 6 (the way Harmattan was planned much before the merger with Moblin) as there are some things shifted around in it, the full ‘optification’, preparations to switch to RPM-based distribution etc. – those are not the things Maemo needed, nor were planed for Maemo. But then again, it’s far from being a streamlined MeeGo as well.
The best way to put it is to call it Maemo 6 infused with some of MeeGo logic and encompassed by a full MeeGo 1.2 API support.
Tho, yes, it still is far more Maemo than it is MeeGo.
the bottom three looks nice to me that’s all
Next version of N8 will make everyone who has N8 to upgrade. Well everyone who has no problems with money and you will need new HDMI cable.
N8 will feel low weight but Hy*****n looks great and fits in hand. And camera updates damn. Too bad I cant give more info.
Lets hope that one will come out in first half of 2012.
How about you? Don’t you leave Nokia? Do you know anything about the rumour of selling of smart device division? thx
omg 13% marketshare with smartphones for nokia! amazing!
i believe they will still sell symbian phones and the n9 – that leaves ho much markeshare for “third major ecosystem” windows phone?
Well so far even with Mango, WP is selling less and less. (with a huge amount of cash poured to advertising) Nokia will be WP’s last hope of ever getting anywhere.. and the risk for Nokia is huge. =/
I am surely not the only person that wants Nokia to do well on this but I have seen so many negative predictions posts rants yada yada whenever i see a positive piece from the media it just…… feels weird…..I dont know.
I am surely not the only one
Anyway I really want Nokia to do well these days I fell like outcast carrying the only Nokia phone in my Uni class in the midst of all the Android, iPhones and Blackberries, but I am fine with that
But even as a Nokia fan you their prediction seems a little too optimistic.
Can’t wait to see Meltemi + Qt + Swipe!
N9 class hardware is in a year’s time older and cheaper and therefore suitable for low-end phones.. no?
In a year – no, those ‘laws’ still don’t apply to the mobile space as there is, ironically, less competition. So far it’s been about 3 years cycle for a high-end mobile component to become a commodity (i.e. hardware from top-end smartphones 3 years ago can be bought for the price of low-end phones today – that still doesn’t guarantee build quality, tho), with a tendency to reduce that to 2 years…
Personally, I think it will stay like this for a couple of years until Intel finally doesn’t make a true foray into the mobile space. ARM is currently way too strong, and even their ‘competition’ usually uses their licensed designs… And the ultra-mobile GPU arena is moving even slower as there is still no fierce competition and still no thriving gaming industry to push the progress forward. The only component that follows the laws from big brothers is – ram/flash memory, so you can expect more and more of that for bargain prices in the future.
Good for Nokia, possibly, but despicable nonetheless. This is how things work in the true ‘free market’: supply and demand and real world company performance often have nothing whatsoever to do with company stock price and credit rating. So much for all the theory taught for years in economics schools.
words and perception, expectations and predictions, opinions are all part of the real world and part of many economic theories as well.
If you are looking at Forbes then you should also look at this as well: http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2012/01/06/interview-with-murtazin-will-microsoft-buy-nokias-smartphone-unit/
Both are sides of same coin!
You mean aside from the two articles which are still on this blog’s front page?
Do you guys actually read anything before parroting the anti-WP line? Apparently not.
The carriers are the driving force in many markets. They are and should be afraid of Appel and Google. If iOS and Androide are the only options a lot of power is shifted away from the carriers. Therfore it is in the carriers long time interest to support alternatives, e.g. by subsidies or promotions. This is in my opinion the straw that Nokias WP strategy clings to. Personally I don’t care if Nokia succeeds with WP.
with the current stock price it is close to chapter 11, like kodak. I will keep my old nokia phones maybe I can sell them in the future to museum:)).
I believe Nokia will do well. There is right now a gap in the mobile market, even if many consumers haven’t ‘felt’ it yet. Windows is perfect to fill that gap and now that we have seen the performance of WP (which is as good as it should be), I believe in a few years windows will have a great share in the mobile market.
Only thing to wait for is to see the windows mobile marketplace to fill up with apps and games. Considering it is windows (nothing new) I bet it will.