No WP8 hit yet, Lumia sales growing in Q3?
Another post from Janne. We had a brief look at the earnings call yesterday through Stefan but now the full transcript is available. There’s legitimate fears that with MS’s news on WP8, Lumia sales would crash in Q3. Nokia’s aware of this and will take measures either to maintain or even possible grow Lumia shipments (hopefully not at the expense of giving them away).
_______________
We are obviously watching the growth of Lumia sales with high interest, so it was interesting to find a little nugget of information in the full earnings call transcript (thanks to Viipottaja and Zipa for pointing this out).
Q3 is a transitional quarter for Lumia, because Windows Phone 8 was announced in late Q2 and will appear assumedly by Q4. During this time sales of current WP7 devices may be affected, although Nokia will obviously compensate with price-cuts and promotions as well as through the now-wider global and price-range availability of Lumias (especially Lumia 610 and Lumia 900).
Here is what Stephen Elop had to say:
to prepare developers for the new Windows Phone platform, Microsoft announced the Windows Phone 8 platform in June. As a result, we anticipate some impact to our Lumia business in Q3, although Lumia activations have been flat to up in the weeks following the announcement of Windows Phone 8. Thus, leading up to the introduction of the Windows Phone 8 products, we plan to introduce tactical measures and promotional campaigns. As we do throughout any product life cycle, we plan to pursue traditional marketing and promotional activities to encourage the adoption of Lumia devices.
Lumia sales have been either holding steady or going up (I assume depending on market) since the Windows Phone 8 announcement. In the month after the WP8 announcement, at least no big drop is yet to happen.
Do check out the full transcript, it is a good read.
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Q3 = 1.5M Lumias, 4M Symbian, Nokia becomes Microsoft.
Q4 = 1,3M Lumia, 2M Symbian
2013 = Microsoft abort Nokia project
2013 = MeeGo 20% w/ shares by Jolla
I shall hold you to this. Bookmarked.
One of the possible scenarios… my bet…
Q3 = Lumia sales growht another 20%-30%…
LateQ4 = Lumia Windows Phone 8 on the streets (they must be if not the first, one the early oem on the streets)
2013:
Q1a = Windows Phone and Windows 8 becomes a fiasco… people regret it… Nokia is doomed.
Q1b = Windows Phone and Windows 8 are received with a regular acceptance from people… Nokia need to work fast on a Android device or Own OS based device, ready for June.
Q1c = Windows Phone and Windows 8 becomes the best thing ever made by Microsoft, Nokia is safe, they still have to catch to compete agains Samsung in price of their supply chain… Nokia stick to Windows Phone forever (until something new come onboard)…
Just notice that I didn’t put the Nokia becomes a MS hardware devision, because if that happen you can bet for sure that MS will shut down Nokia and keep the patents portfolio to do what they do best, trolling everyone, anywhere…
“MS will shut down Nokia and keep the patents portfolio to do what they do best, trolling everyone, anywhere…”
if microsoft and nokia do not succeed in cracking the market, they will do it out of spite. pretty sure about microsoft!
I suspect that Jolla has quite a sizable investment from nokia as the covert plan B.
Since we’re already almost a third into Q3, and Nokia sold 4 million Lumias in Q2 (1.3 million a month avg), I think it is safe to say a million of them has shipped in Q3 already if what Elop is saying is accurate. That is of course no guarantee this will hold up, but we go what we know by. It may be a while until we get new data.
Elop said that it would sell a few units, knowing that it would sell a little more to create a false impression that things are going well.
*Yawn*
Is that all you have?
That’s all he’s got, boring isn’t it?
They shipped 4 millions alright…still in the back rooms of ATT stores being priced down next to nothing b/c nobody wants em.
Yeah… except they said on the earnings call that its units sold, not shipped.
You could make yourself look less of a moron by reading it you know.
Cool… So pricecuts 3 months after the release is a sign of failure… You should tell that to all other manufacturers who follow the quarter-pricedrop strategy.
They didn’t ship 4M to ATT if you know. It was worldwide shipment. ATT didn’t order enough and that’s why they were out of stock for a while and Amazon USA had the same story. Do you even read the news or just trolling?
Nice necroposting buddy, nobody cares what you think when the story you’re posting in is almost 2mth old, they care more about your poor etiquette.
You know US population compared to world population? Nokia never said, they shipped/sold 4M in US. Did they?
No WP 8 for Lumia 900…lol…and Nokia(MS) wants to trick customers into buying this phone and then not providing WP 8 which is due in few months…lol what Management Skills…
I dont think Nokia has ever seen days like these before…I mean real shame…
If priced low enough, I think Lumia 900 on 7.8 is a very good option for many users. There’s plenty of apps there to cover all the basics as well as a great user experiences on core smartphone stuff.
Even more so for handsets like the 610/710/800.
I think 900 would be the better option for the front cam.
ya but Old Nokia was so good at this…providing updates (Symbian and even MeeGo)…but this new Nokia has put my royalty to shame…waited long enough for Lumia 900 here in India after no N9…now right now I swear I am going to store nearby to Get Samsung Galaxy s2 in under 30 min.
Hi, what is Samsung’s recent track record in providing Android OS version updates? Honest question as I do not know.
I am so far happy with the updates Nokia has provided for my L900. Hopefully 7.8 has some of the features WP8 has (and not just the homescreen). In fact, the only thing I am _really_ missing is selecting multiple pictures in the pic hub.
wat do u guys want … its ridiculous u buy a phone it comes with warranty bye bye its kindness of Nokia or others that they bring u updates Nokia has no legal obligation neither do Apple or samsung to kepp ur purchased device updated after 244 months or so… stop asking for such things
2009 iphone 3gs can still have ios 6 update this year
Research before you troll
I have one. Hopefully iOS 6 wont cripple the 3GS like iOS 5 did the 3G. In addition it still won’t get Siri or iOS navigation.
Let me reference this comment from Dr_Zorg:
“To be completely fair, I don’t get this obsession with OS “updates” which essentially change the OS from the ground up and make it more difficult to run on old hardware.
If you buy a phone, it’s best to do so going by what it can do right now, at this very moment, than by what a company promised or hasn’t promised for the future. Who knows, a company might go bankrupt in a matter of months and you’d be cheated of that kind of investment.
http://mynokiablog.com/2012/03/01/nokia-belle-fp1carla-for-older-s3-devices-fp1-to-bring-faster-html5-browser-new-maps-and-dolby-sound-to-603-700-and-701/comment-page-2/#comment-527523“
I think that view is now a few years out of date.
Phones aren’t really phones any more, they’re computers. They can all do the core things, some better than others, but adding features is getting more and more important. Especially as phone contracts means that you will most likely be stuck with the same phone for 18 months to 2 years.
Updates make phones better and if you get a phone that isn’t really updateable you get left behind.
Well, consider the fact that 64% of Android are running software that was released in 2010, and suddenly the fact that current Lumias won’t be running 8 doesn’t seem that bad, does it?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Usage_share
Going back to OP’s point that this is all a change from ‘Old Nokia’, erm ‘Old Nokia’ would have given us S^4 with zero upgrade for S^3 owners. New Nokia decided to update Symbian sequentially.
So people are buying Android phones for their ‘upgradeability’? What features is the 900 missing from WP8? (Genuine question). I’m sure Nokia will still provide it improvements. Perhaps not as drastic as a whole change to WP8 but it won’t be completely left behind. For one, it’s getting a new start screen and other features.
Yes, it was the Elop administration who decided to bring us Anna and Belle. Under the old regime N8/E7 owners would have gotten zilch of Symbian^4, just the usual bug fixes and the like that N97 got (well, N97 got so many bug fixes that it almost counts as a major revision update).
Do you know that for a fact? Or was it mainly the work of Green?
Ah, I forget. Anything positive under Elop is the making of someone else, anything negative is Elop trojaning around.
I’d have to go archive hunting, but I did pay a lot of attention to Symbian^4 at the time and never got the impression that Symbian^3 devices would get it. Instead, when S^4 was cancelled for being non-Qt, Nokia announced an upgrade-path instead – this change happened during the Elop era.
IdidnotsayitwasnoyEloporduringhisera.you’vearliersatedthatyouonlydealwithfacts.Iwasjustmakingaquestio,ifittrulyfromElop.MyunderstandingisthatGreenmadealotofgooddecisions.
Again
Fair enough. It is my understanding from all I gathered back then, but I do not know what role Green played in the decision. I don’t think it really matters – the point was that people have a highly romanticised view of the “old Nokia”, leading up to all sorts of myths.
Some actually claim the old Nokia provided major updates, when it NEVER did. Where as the “new Nokia” is the one who started handing out major updates. Under Elop’s tenure.
I had a brief check:
End-October upgrade path based on Qt is announced:
http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/21/nokia-refines-development-stategy-adopts-html5-in-qt-and-ends-s/
Elop joins mid-September:
http://conversations.nokia.com/2010/09/10/stephen-elop-to-join-nokia-as-president-and-ceo/
Care to comment? Your credibility in my eyes just got a small hit. At the time of decision Elopbwas just learning the names of his co-workers.
jiipee:
Yes, I care to comment.
It is WIDELY agreed Elop is the one that canned Symbian^4 – and during the same announcement the upgrade path to Symbian^3 was announced. These were the first major change announced during Elop’s tenure and are widely accepted as his first move of cutting out non-Qt branches.
Things do change quite a bit in the Elop-blaming circus if we actually conclude Elop DIDN’T cancel Symbian^4… But Green did. Care to comment incognito, whose main argument this has been? That Elop killed Symbian’s return to prominence? Did Rich kill Symbian^4 because it wasn’t based on Qt?
I can accept that Green gave us Symbian^3 update paths and killed Symbian^4, but if this indeed is true, Elop-haters just got one thing less going for them.
And no, you can’t have it both ways: Let’s thank Green for the Symbian^3 update roadmap and blame Elop for killing Symbian^4.
But now that you say it, it does make some sense that the whole October shower there had Green’s fingerprints on it – with Elop’s acceptance of course.
Maybe Green was dissatisfied with the non-Qt Symbian^4 efforts?
That I agree on. Ive read here though that even the Symbian ver 5 has received updates in the form of new browser etc.
I dont agree with the people here that the non-upgradability would be a major blow to existing Lumia users. I believe that the current line will be struck with Osborne until October. Similarly bad is that there is another long wait since L900 for new launches.
I saw a lot of good stuff coming after Green joined the ranks. What Nokia missed for years was hard core software VP and finally when they had one, they quit software. That was the error of the old Nokia. It seems that the very same non-software guys went for WP (and messed up Meltemi if the info from ‘Another ex-Nokian are true)
Any comments incognito? Do you agree with jiipee that Green in fact killed Symbian^4 and Elop only rubber-stamped it?
Of course we can also blame Öistämö for killing MeeGo, so who can we pinpoint *actually* killing Meltemi?
/humor for the last part
My comment was based on updates in general. I’m not having a go at Nokia or Microsoft. I understand the reasons that they had for not updating phones to WP8 and I’m OK with them.
You and I both know that WP8 consumer facing features haven’t been revealed yet so I can’t answer that question. No one other than WP insiders can and unfortunately I’m not one of them.
I certainly bought my phone knowing it was to be upgraded. Friends who have older androids are pissed off that they can’t do the same thing on their phone that I can.
Friends and family with iPhones are always happy when their phones are updated. It just gives them another chance to start showing things off :p
Updates to software are incredibly important. It seems like going forward with WP8 Microsoft have done a great thing by talking the carriers out of the question and not giving them a chance to hold things back like they’re so fond of doing to Android. The more like Apple they are in this regard the better.
Sorry it took so long to reply. The commenting system gets a bit hectic when there are so many people replying the the same comments
I would also add that at the start MS laughed at Android fragmentation and boasted how they will bypass operators and deliver upgrades for WP phones.
So it’s quite irony if the argument now is that Android is doing it too.
This seems to need some clarification…
First, the software on the phone consists of three parts: Windows Phone 7 OS + drivers + manufacturers own firmware on top of that. The firmware is where all the operator or OEM specific customizations are done.
Now, MS can indeed update the OS part (and the drivers, I believe) without operator/OEM consent should they wish to. I don’t know if they have done it, or if they would ever actually want to do it and what consequences it might have, but they do reserve the right to do so.
Secondly, the WP7 -> WP8 upgrade issues. Technically WP8 is not an upgrade, but a completely new OS. You really should think it in terms of installing Linux on top of Windows, not like upgrading from, say, Vista to Win7.
I do believe that it would be possible to run WP8 on current Lumia devices, probably even the 610, if MS would have ported WP8 to the current WP7 hardware. It would most likely not, however, be possible to upgrade the device over the air, but it would need a complete re-flashing of the device with a very concrete possibility of bricking the phone in the process.
“There’s plenty of apps there to cover all the basics as well as a great user experiences on core smartphone stuff.”
symbian all over again! as an existing symbian user, i’d be wary of such a thing. the windows phone line then was that they are a completely new OS, no news about some holy grail of mobile OSes called wp8. if i had invested into the wp lineup then i’d be pretty pissed.
You mean like not providing fp1 for the N95?
Old Nokia never provided major updates, just service updates.
The “new” Nokia under Elop is the one who started to give major updates like Belle.
Exactly. And usually even the service updates required you to take a trip to your local Nokia Care center until more recent years.
Happens to Android phones all the time, don’t really see any issues here except the geeks and haters making a big fuss about it.
I just bought a lumia 800 second hand great phone!!! cant wait for windows 8 update! had nokis n8 before that.Well done nokia great intenet browser on the lumia 800.
Internet Explorer and grat browser can not exist in the same sentence
IE9 is several magnitudes better browser than the one in Belle.
you’re right… But still IE + greatest brower ever, says that phrase publicy and your tech and geek friends will laugh on you…
And then you set them straight with facts.
yea, but still not as good as Opera Mobile on Symbian.
Unless you try it on the Lumia.
I.E. has a stigma of being terrible. Well the desktop one kinda is just bad.
Surprisingly i.e.9 on Lumia is great. I do dislike how they’ve moved the tab switch button. Very counter productive making it one extra tap.
I.E.9 is my preferred mobile browsing experience on a Nokia. The only thing that I’d switch to is an updated MicroB.
MicroB!!!… What had happened to it???…. Ahh… good memories…
Even on the desktop, IE past version 8 is as good as the rest.
If a “geek” claims IE is crap then he simply doesn’t know anything (and is very short sighted)…
that’s the reason how come for the first time in history IE as been overtaken by another browser in market share…
times are changing… (not that I like Chrome, but)
Then you dont do much regarding browsers.
Even wit desktop IE9 one needs to tweak CSS and java which works flawlessly with Firefox & Chrome.
Still, I agree with Jay, the WP browser is good. It is faster than N9s stock browser. Ive got so used to swiping though that the tab switching is so much pain that I would still prefer N9.
“Even wit desktop IE9 one needs to tweak CSS and java which works flawlessly with Firefox & Chrome.”
Waat??!? The vast majority of J2EE-based browser-driven software will not work properly with anything but IE. Well, let me rephrase that a bit: a lot of it works with the major browsers, but a significant amount still requires IE to work properly.
I’m talking about stuff built on SAP, Weblogic, WebSphere and, ironically, Tomcat…
IE is still far behind the others. Does it at least have some kind of extensions ? Not even talking about it’s poor HTML5 compatibility: http://html5test.com/results/desktop.html
and why can’t it exist in same sentence! ?
Windows Phone 8 for your Lumia 800…are u so special?
June 20th MS confirms WP8 and the non upgradeability.
In q2 Nokia had taken a €220m writedown on inventory. Timo said that this writedown was made up mostly of Lumia writedowns.
Nokia has already cut the L900 price to $50.
So in q3 we have the following factors
- End of line for current WP7 handsets.
- Release of S3.
- People delaying purchases for likely release of ip5 in September.
- People delaying purchases for confirmed release of wp8 on 26/10.
- Symbian sales continuing to nosedive
I expect writedowns but not to the extent in q2. Nokia will be asking sales channels to start selling off existing Lumia stock and watch deep price cuts.
The large retailers / operators will probably have negotiated deals whereby they wont stand any cut in the price – it will be born by Nokia.
What Elop failed to menton was sales – Nokia will cut deep to maintain the numbers but at the cost of top line sales revenue and margins. Just look at the anaemic margins on snartphones they currently have.
Elop comment was more smoke and mirrors.
The price cut of the Lumia 900 was done by AT&T, not Nokia.
That’s all you have to add.
So ATT does a price cut and takes the hit. Next time they won’t order as much or want better guarantees that this wont happen again.
MS pulled a fast one on both Nokia and ATT who are the ones to bare the cost. Nokia has not much leverage left so has to accept it. ATT can walk away so has far more leverage to renegotiate.
I thought as much. This is another fluff piece.
precisely.
I am fairly sure both AT&T and Nokia knew full well that the full WP8 feature set would never come to the L900.
Exactly.
@kan…kan says “That’s all you have to add.”
Yes; you see, I stopped reading, and being interested in, your comment at “Nokia has already cut the L900 price to $50″
Viipot
If Nokia and ATT fully well knew – you have some evidence of this?
Lets say they did know this – why didnt they communicate it to customers?
@Just visiting – you know the context I am writing in. The fact you want to pick up on it shows again like Janne you have nothing to support your argument.
Nokia numbers dont lie no matter how you want to spin them.
Why would they have? They are under no obligation to reveal future product roadmaps to the consumers, and would, in fact, be quite foolish to do so.
In contrast, OEMs and software providers regularly discuss their roadmaps with the carriers.
Btw, if AT&T did not know, one would imagine they would be mighty pissed right now and would not have their CEO and president all those positive statements on WP in general and coming WP8 in particular.
And, in general, I don’t think carriers really give much of a flying F about providing OS updates to their customers anyway – just look at the abysmal Android track record.
So you don’t have any evidence.
ATT are not stupid enough to make public comments on private matters.
Customers value trust. Being told you have no upgrade path for a phone that was out only a few months ago is a kick in the teeth.
As to Android – sure the upgrade path is poor from carriers but consumers can upgrade the phones themselves. The simple upgrade path for the Iphone is one its key selling points.
Now you are just being silly. Did I ever claim I have evidence?
I said I am fairly sure, and I am still fairly f***ing sure. 
Err.. that’s what I said: why would they announce their roadmap ahead of time?
There is an upgrade path for L900: WP7.8.
Android consumers can (perhaps, not sure if that’s quite that simple for all of them), but consumers don’t (for the most part), unless the update is actively pushed/offered to them by the carrier.
So your point of view is based on nothing other than conjecture. It seems the apologists like Fox news masquerade opinion as fact.
WP 7.8 is MS throwing scraps at people who bought into the Lumia marketing and WP.
Kan, your argument isn’t based on any evidence either. Your arguments are neither intelligent or clever
“WP 7.8 is MS throwing scraps at people who bought into the Lumia marketing and WP.”
Given that you have absolutely no knowledge of the contents of WP7.8, your statement is utter rubbish.
On your comment that L900 price been cut to USD50, its only in US. Its sold at full price in some other countries,USD550, where it is the norm to buy phones unlocked. The WP8 annoucement has left the early adopters of L900 pissed remember they pay full price for a device just released 2 weeks. They said if they knew, they : 1) would have waited for the price to drop 2)waited for a WP8 phone to be released
kan:
I doubt Elop’s comment was smoke and mirrors in this case, the price cuts for the new models are just starting to happen, they would not show there yet. I think Lumia is still selling because it has just gotten available to so many places that didn’t have it or have the full range before, there is some demand in the world for it. I’d guess the writedowns are for Lumia 710 and 800 models, whose demand was reported down (and 610 and 900 demand up). Hence they also stopped/lessened ordering more 710 and 800s from Compal and are focusing on making the 900 themselves and so on.
As for the rest of your message, I don’t disagree with all of it by any means. I do think Q3 is not the end of line for current WP7 handsets though, at least that is what Elop and Ihamuotila said in the investor call – saying that some would remain for a significant time after WP8 release, I expect that to mean Lumia 610 at the low-end because WP8 low-end might take a while. But Nokia was also acknowledging that Q3 is a WP8-related transitional quarter, some people definitely will delay Lumia purchases (and iPhone 5 will be a factor too, if not in Q3 then in Q4). However, the big question is: Will Nokia be able to sustain Lumia sales through promotions and e.g. low-end products and wider global availability in Q3 compared to Q2. We’ll know eventually, apparently until now they’ve been able to sustain, which is good news for Lumia. The big play starts in Q4 with WP8, Nokia must make significant strides then.
Symbian sales will of course continue to nosedive. Hopefully though Asha touch sales will go up significantly as their availability ramps up in the third quarter. Asha touch did not get to markets fast enough to really make a difference in Q2. I hope it does in Q3.
Elop whole strategy with the Lumia is failing.
At first we had the 800 at the high end and the 710 for the low/mid end. The problem was the 800 could not compete on features with the high end smartphones and the 710 could not compete with the low priced Androids at the lower end.
With little sales in the first few months Elop decided to heavily discount the 710 and the 800. On top of this the 900 ended up cannibalizing the 800. The 710 ended up competing against the 610.
None of the Lumia phones fulfilled the demands of customers – a high end phone that could compete against the iphones and Galaxy phone or one at the low end to take sales from low end Android phones.
The only way to have increased sales was through heavy discounting which is not a long term strategy.
So summarise – Nokia needed to move from Symbian. WP was not a bad chpice for an o/s but the whole execution of the plan was ham fisted and poor.
I do agree that the move away from Symbian was poorly handled and failed to reach their goals. They also foundered on their feature-phone fight against cheap Android. These are clearly evident in Nokia’s fiscals.
However, I don’t think Lumia has failed yet. Strategy Analytics just posted that Lumia has grown faster in its three first quarters than either iPhone or Samsung Android. Of course it should, considering Nokia’s former position and enlarging smartphone market, but nevertheless that shows it takes a while to grow a new product-line.
http://www.wpcentral.com/nokia%E2%80%99s-cumulative-sales-lumia-outpaces-iphone-and-samsung%E2%80%A6back-2007
Even iPhone cut it’s price just months into the release by a major amount. It takes a while to grow a new product-line. As for Lumia pricecuts, even with the cheap Lumia 610 introduced, Lumia is pulling Nokia’s average sales price UP! Symbian had pushed it down for years to keep Symbian even remotely competitive.
That said, success for Lumia is by no means guaranteed. All I’m saying that it hasn’t failed yet. Q3 will be hard, but if Q4 Nokia can hit something in the 10 million ballpark of Lumia’s sold, I think they are on the right track.
“Elop whole strategy with the Lumia is failing.”
I disagree, solely on the grounds that it is way too early to say anything like that. By definition, a core business strategy spans something like 3-5 years in time.
However, I do agree that there has been serious issues with its execution so far. I’ve actually been meaning to write a little rant on this topic, but haven’t seemingly found the time/inclination to do so, so I’ll give you the short version here. I’ll ignore the Symbian/Meego/Meltemi stuff for now, and just focus on WP.
The way I see it is that the biggest issues have been with timing. Not really the time to execute, which has been quite astonishing for Nokia, but the actual timing of the different events. Some of it is Nokia’s fault, some of it are things that Nokia really could not have done in any other way.
Issue #1: Initial Lumia launch, Nokia World 2011. They launched the Lumia 800 and 710, a “highish” and a mid-end device. The problem here was on multiple levels. Firstly, they had just recently announced their new naming standards, so people (well, technically inclined ones at least) knew that there was still something better in the works, and with both the CES and the MWC just a few months away, I’m sure that a lot of potential high-end customers were inclined to wait for those events to see if any news on a “nine series” would be revealed.
Secondly, Nokia’s main issues at the time were the lack of a true flagship model, and the decline of the Symbian sales in the low end. They really failed to address either of these issues with this launch.
Issue #2: Lumia 900 US launch. Even if we ignore the fact that it took around (or was it even over?) three months from launch to sales start, which was too long, the retail launch it self was quite, shall we say, puzzling. Sales started on a day when the vast majority of the stores were not open. I mean, come on, what kind of a team of geniuses coordinated this?
Issue #3: Lumia 610. This device should have been the first to be launched, preferably alongside the 900 at Nokia World. Of course the 900 was “reserved” for AT&T in order to provide the US market with a special treat, so that was kinda not possible…
Issue #4: WP8 rumors, and ultimately the announcement. Basically the “WP8 ghost” has been looming over the entire Lumia range ever since it was announced. Ideally Nokia should have hopped on the WP-train way earlier or just in time for WP8. I’m not sure if either of those could have been possible, but either option sure would have been a whole lot better.
the mobile operator are rejecting the lumias!! because of the wp8
and because the lumias won’t be updateds to wp8
Err.. what??
Yeah, one would hope they can at least maintain the 4 million level. Would seem somewhat plausible given that Lumias are now out in something like 50+ markets, meaning on average they would need to ship “only” 80,000 units into each of those markets.
What is critical of course is having at least a couple of WP8 phones in the shops before Christmas, and hopefully already end of October/early November…
Btw, regarding WP8, I found this Q&A bit interesting/promising:
“Mark Sue – RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division
Sure, Steve. Will Nokia be the first and flagship platform for Windows 8?
Stephen A. Elop
So we’re not making any specific announcements about announced timing or how that happens. But one of the things — just to give a signal in this direction, on a number of occasions, Windows Phone 8 has been demonstrated. It’s been demonstrated on Nokia hardware. We’re working with them every single day on the initial hardware platforms and everything. So clearly, we have a very close relationship that is not the same as what anyone else has at this point. So the relationships are good there.”
And Elop says, nothing
He said enough. Did you expect him to tell you the specs of the new devices?
duh.
So the best thing he can say bout WP8 is that four months before launch he has working prototypes?
I guess he thinks other manufacturers are getting their hands on WP and other OSes not sooner than two days before the phones are released.
flat could mean no sales
Only if there were no sales at all before.
In much of the world Lumia sales have increased or remained constant during July, if there isn’t much change then Nokia might see 5 million Lumia sales in Q3 ( but with lower average price ). Symbian will likely drop to 3-4 million.
Personally, I don’t think iPhone or WP8 will impact Q3 any more than they did Q2. The people who want an iPhone, will get an iPhone. The people who know about WP8, have waited for WP8 since April.
Nokia might have a chance to keep selling their Lumias if they lower the price to let them compete against Android Low End phones. After the launch of WP8 it will get even harder to sell WP 7.x devices, since WP8 will over cheap lowend devices too but with the latest wp version.
Oh and it will be interesting to see the reactions from current L610,710,800 and 900 customers when they realize that there will be lowerspeced WP8 phones while their phones will never get WP8.
There will always be newer, better, cheaper (and sometimes, more expensive) phones coming out all the time, so they will not care. They purchased their phone for what it did at the time of purchase!
Kinda like the uninformed people still purchasing the N8 from Amazon (which is still overpriced, in my opinion) – lower specced than the C7 (and other newer models), won’t get Belle FP1 or other updates.
Well, not really ‘never’. There will be ways to unofficially put WP8 on it if they wanted to (as indicated by a couple of posts the day WP8 was announced) though that would only be for the geeks I guess.
Will they care? I dunno. Rarely will any of my friends update their phones. Mates I recommended N8 to are still on original S^3 :/ Those on Droids still on whatever version (I check their phone for available updates and they just don’t bother with them). As long as the handsets are still working and are not needing an update in order to function properly, I’m sure many won’t notice not having the update.
At least 7.8 would give the ‘feel’ of WP8 on the homescreen front. Apps are covered since there are plenty there already.
It’s a shame these handsets won’t get the update officially though.
“There will be ways to unofficially put WP8 on it if they wanted to”
I’m pretty sure that this is not the case. If there was a port of WP8 to current hardware, there would be no reason what so ever not to allow people to upgrade to it via a trip to an authorized service center who would re-flash it.
Hey nokia Go with B2G for low end mobiles replace all s40 touch platform …IT will definately make nokia different…..And insert or merge nokia air cloud technology in it……..
No it won’t. Not that it’s necessarily a bad idea, but S40 is already quite good, and we haven’t seen an FFOS phone in action yet.
I think meego developer testing all platform on N9………..THey will get break through………..
This year is really painful to watch Nokia struggle.. I am sure that as a company they’ve gone trough worse, but I don’t remember it being that bad.
The 808 is a great device, I am glad they got it out and people can enjoy it.. before they go belly up..
That’s just your lack of vision. I think it is an exciting year for Nokia. Of courese the low valuation making them a target is worrisome but other than that the pieces are falling into place as expected.
wow the haters are out in force today,
it’s a waste of time trying to reason with them,
they have an agenda,
single minded fanatics hell bent on willing nokia’s demise,
sad.
A comment from an Ex Nokia guy…
“In your speculation and the following, there are several issues need to be corrected.
> Symbian Belle
It’s feature complete around Feb.11th, but the bug fixing speed was significantly and immediately affected by Elop’s strategy, while most Symbian gurus were looking for their own future at that period.
> MeeGo
There was two major changes around Sep. 2010. First, it’s decided to use QML instead of WRT; second, the new UI as we saw now was introduced. The result was a re-write of the application layer, and that’s done in 6 months.
Do you really think Elop could kill something new when he just joined?
And the partnership with Intel really took a great effort away from the develop team.
Also, it was decided long ago PR1.3 was the LAST update for N9. No 1.4 was ever planned.
> Meltemi
The research began long before Elop joined, but the product plan was decided somewhere in the 1st half of 2011 after Feb.11th.
However, it was the project that was planned and executed in the worst possible way I know:
1. Use some chip that is still under development. The release of the chip by the partner was delayed time and time again, with a great effort from Nokia developers to fix various issues.
2. Redo the base layer, by a team with no or very limited Linux experience. Most of the Linux gurus in Nokia were located in Finland, but the base layer is done in Ulm. Though they are really good developers, lacking of experience was really bad.
3. The central part of the whole software system was just a research prototype from some research center. The idea was really good, but, hey, how could you ever decide to use such a prototype as the core of the software stack?
4. Changing of design all the time, and we, developers, used a long time to convince our designers to follow what N9 already provided.
5. Kill the project when it’s almost ready. Yes, the product is in a really good shape in May.
One more thing, after Meltemi axed, we all got the order to delete all the source code related to Meltemi, with some reason that nobody trusted. So, let’s all speculate the reason.
> Windows Phone
I read just now that the WP8 was started before WP7 got released, meaning Elop knew already before he joined Nokia that you can NOT upgrade WP7 phone to WP8. I’m just curious if he told that honestly to the board, and what’s the reaction of the board if Elop told the truth.”
like i said, sad.
as to prevent attempts to take things out of context, let me just
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/nokia-qt-meego-and-meltemi-what-happened/
and let the readers decide.
many people there in the comments that seamed to work on the projects saying he is wrong. I advise reading the comments section.
That comment I posted from an Ex-Nokian guy was interesting, it clearly shows and reflects a lot of whats happening within the messy Nokia.
ta daaaa
the 3 musketeers are triple teaming me
booo the baby says, nokia stock down 7.30% since yesterday
well done baby nooki
seams we found a infantile way to communicate
i’m just appealing to your intellect
you are a sad little person are you not?
Jesus, can you stop with the personal stuff in case you did not notice I tried to stretch my proverbial hand and stated that “we” found a way to communicate, but you had to turn that into an insult. sad…..
regarding the post, it shows nokia understands the issues it faces with the currant lumia line,
im sure there will be sales staff incentives to further promote the lumia,
the average consumer is easily swayed by sales staff opinions,
and with the price being so low, its an easy sale.
When Elop left Microsoft, Stephen Elop owned 282,459 shares of MSFT.
We certainly should be seeing Elop do his best to push WP8.
Which has since sold.
when its 3pm the neighbours dog does a shit,
so whats your point?
U sure he sold the shares. His actions don’t prove it. I remember you wanting to buy some NOK shares, choose careful
i wish i can buy more shares but i dont have extra cash,
i dont plan to sell for a long time, and i’m confident my invest will be profitable,
oh by the way … do u mind if you let me borrow your crystal ball, mine seems to be broken .
“do u mind if you let me borrow your crystal ball, mine seems to be broken” DUhhhh, obviously
kidding it was such an obvious pun that I had to take it.. Cheers
so you mean to say that your crystal ball works ?
quick nooki, give me next weeks lottery numbers
Yes, I am sure he sold his MS shares.
“U sure he sold the shares.”
That is public knowledge, especially when you are in a position where you (potentially) hold insider information. He sold them pretty much the day he joined Nokia. And bought 100000 (or was it a million, can’t be bothered to check) shares of Nokia.
thats your input to the discussion
what a prophet!
oh please, you’re making me blush,
Give me a break… the update policy of “old Nokia” was such that phones just got service updates, bugfixes and few new features. With old Nokia there would be no Belle on the N8 and maybe not even Anna!!! Btw. the change in policy was done under Elop.
Of course, it’s disappointing that the current gen Lumias won’t get WP8 but “just” WP7.8. But compare this to the situation with the beloved Android phones. How many phones <4.0 are still sold and advertised? Nobody seems to care much or sees Android doomed but they all hype the issue with nokia.
Also, WP7 might miss some features (now… nobody knows WP7.8 yet) but the stuff which is in seems to work well. Compare that to old Nokia… One thing I don't like about my N8 was the constant waiting for updates which would give me the kind of phone I was promissed when I bought it
Args… Should have been a reply to some post from above. However, context is lost now.
It doesn’t matter if it will be four, three or six millions. All these numbers means continuation of rapid cash bleeding and irrelevance in smartphone market.
But still funny to see former bashers of Symbian sales being delighted by the possibility of flatlining unit sales!
Well, they increased their YoY cash so hopefully the cash situation is starting to stabilize.
Btw, who has expressed delight at flat lining Lumia sales?
nn continues to ignore our attempts to explain that we do get the dire straits Nokia is in and we are not happy about it – and that they f*****ed the Symbian transition up and lost their footing in feature phones for a while too, leading to losses. When we don’t repeat it in every post he acts like we never said it. We are now watching the Lumia trajectory, which is a separate issue in many ways, but obviously very, very important in the long run.
Everything seems to get black and white here.
The cash situation was suprisingly good, though matched the analust expectations excluding the MS payment. They will manage the transition, if WP8 is at least moderate success.
It is clear that they ran out of money and had to cut the least probable success – Meltemi.
They failed, as Janne pointed out, in the Symbian transition and Nexr billion pillars. Lets hope there is some life left in disruptions. They’ve also lost a great deal of thei fan base (it is evident in all channels) and lately also the rest of old developers. Some will like the new Nokia, some dont. Within a year Id guess only the fittest old fans will hang around here. So enjoy the debates aa long they last
I hope they last thr next 5 years independent and in good health. Something new will emerge and I trust Nokia will get a new chance. Personally, the current offering is uninteresting.
Fair post there, jiipee.
If one choose to argue that just nominal increases (or even possibility of non-loses, like is done here) are not that bad and are actually signs of the promising future of WP so no need to change of strategy, one then can’t then dismiss the unit sale increases in the case of Symbian. And that doesn’t change even if you would do it in one post or in one sentence.
These repeated failures to keep any pretence of intellectual consistency run all the way to the top of Nokia and nicely reveal that there is no reasoned strategy behind the WP switch, the only objective is just to push WP thorough and use whatever talking point you can invent at the moment.
And thus now the number of du jour is YoY cash, with nobody even bothering to check what this number will likely be in the next quarter. But again, who needs consistency? In Q3 YoY cash as measure of relative success will be long forgotten and quickly replaced by another thing. If Elop will be successful in doing the cutting, firing and general disintegration of the company fast enough, WP fans will have no problem to suddenly boast lower operating loses are the preferred metric, and do it with straight face.
Elop executed the transition nearly as best as it could be done once the strategy was to unconditionally switch to WP. There was clear risk that the WP ship could sink completely before WP8 arrival and he successfully averted that outcome.
BTW, because I just defended Elop here and said he did something right, that makes me balanced observer, so whoever says I’m black-and-white Elop hater is black-and-white Elop lover.
YoY cash for Q3 will likely be negative. It would be quite a feat if they could even keep QoQ cash flat, given the fact that the 400 million EUR from IPR won’t be there.
That was actually a fairly balanced post from nn, so credit where credit is due!
Although Lumia sales grew this Q and may have been flat-to-up after the WP8 announcement, pay attention to smartphone ASPs this quarter.
They CRASHED.
Nokia is simply cutting prices on its devices to move them out the door. Same sad story that has, over the past 3-4 years, put them in this place to begin with. You can’t build sustainable market demand for a product purely on low prices.
Did they (I assume you mean Q2, in Q3 they will very likely drop)? In the financials table here:
http://mynokiablog.com/2012/07/19/nokia-q2-2012-results/
it says smartphones ASP went up 6% QoQ and 7% YoY.
Of course, they need more high priced devices.
Sorry, I meant Lumia ASPs specifically. Overall smartphone ASP increased due to a continuing decline in Symbian’s share of Nokia’s overall unit sales and an increasing share of WP7′s contribution.
But Lumia ASPs themselves absolutely cratered.
Read the more specific details documented in the interim report at: http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q2e.pdf
“The ASP of our Lumia devices in the second quarter 2012 was EUR 186, compared to EUR 220 in the first quarter 2012.”
That’s a 15% drop in prices in one quarter. For a company whose operating margins are less than that at the best of times, a drop of this magnitude is a big problem. And I expect further price drops.
The Lumia 900, for example, is now a free phone on contract. They are paying dearly to shovel these things out the door and they will pay more still to keep them moving. Soon there will be accessories deals with the devices or shorter contract requirements or lower monthly tariff requirements, etc. Those are all forms of price drops.
Slow growth in symbian sales means the ship is sinking, should not wait for Meego.
Slow growth in WP sales means just “mixed” results, should wait for WP8.
Well yes, and in large part I would imagine due to the 610 which I think most people would agree is an important device for Nokia’s WP strategy. And at least the Lumia ASP is way above Nokia’s overall smartphone ASP. So Lumias are pulling the ASP in the right direction, one could say.
During the earnings call, Ihamuotila stated that the underlying margin of both Lumia and Symbian devices is about 16%. Not good, but luckily at least positive.
And yes, the ASP will most likely drop this quarter (unless there is an unexpected number of camera enthusiasts in the world
).
” we plan to pursue traditional marketing and promotional activities to encourage the adoption of Lumia devices.”
I loled at this and I think this sentence would enrage Jay.
The plan is not making Windows Phone 8 show everyone by itself that it is a good OS.
What will make people like Windows Phone 8 is Windows 8. That’s what is going to people’s home first.
When they all get used to it they will want to try the OS in their smartphones too.
Windows 8 is the key to Windows Phone 8′s success.
This quarter is about the Asha line,especially the 311 and the 808 plus the very inexpensive lumia line going into back to college.
nokia should give equal importqnce to symbian also in this quarter many brilliant symbian device like 603,700 eats dust coz of lack of promotions.
A hardware update is due on some of the those models.
those lumia buyers are ex symbianers, not ex androiders or ex iphoners, but not all ex symbianers choose lumia. Evidence : android & ios keep growing.
Jolla, bb10, & firefox will also bring trouble to lumia, they bring more alternatives for ex symbianers
Elop is, a mishap in a series of mishaps for Nokia.
Locations, Bridges, Live on, Sustainability, Ecosystems, Mixed results, are fancy terms used to make the CEO look good while the Nokia BOD gets to look dumber.
sub.