Windows Phone overtakes RIM in USA

| September 4, 2012 | 48 Replies

WMPU reports that Windows Phone is making some progress and has displaced RIM’s BlackBerry in USA, Italy, Germany, Australia and Brazil. Brazil has as much as 14.9% of all current sales, with pretty majority if not all of those being Nokia Lumia.

In US, WP is down 0.1% from this time last year, but what is surprising that it’s up 0.3% from June and 1% from July – a very strange growth given the expected slow down of the WP8 announcement/new devices from competition. Given the focus on the US, ironically it’s the only place WP is down from this time last year. Imagine how much worse if there was no input from Nokia. Perhaps the small positive input here affected other countries? I’m only saying that as that has generally been the trend that things popular in the US become popular elsewhere.

Update: Apologies for that 0.1% down. As Janne pointed out Windows included W7/Windows Mobile from last year.

Here you can see Windows 7 from June and July 2011. In June and July 2011, WP in US was 1.7%. I cannot find August 2011. Is it possible that it could be 3.4% on it’s own or as the two Windows OS additions suggests, a combination (Windows, 1.7+1.0 for June, 1.7+0.7 for July). If anyone can find August 2011 please do share.

Error. (see strikethrough)

Update 2: I was comparing box locations and not name.

US:

June 2011: 1.8% WP 0.8% WM – 2.6% Windows

July 2011: 2.1% WP 1.2% WM – 3.3% Windows

June 2012: 3% WP 0.6% WM – 3.6% Windows

July 2012 2.3% WP 0.6% WM 2.9% Windows

August 2012: W 3.3% – possibly 0.6% WM again? That would make 2.7% still above RIM. But it doesn’t say whether this number includes WM. It could be 3.3% WP + 0.6% WM but there’s nothing indicating that either other than WMPU’s article:

In USA RIM now only has 1.5% market share, while Windows Phones capturing 3.3% of the market.

http://wmpoweruser.com/kantar-windows-phone-has-overtaken-rim-market-share-in-usa-key-8-countries/

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/In-the-media

That WP8-reduction trend however is seen in Australia. It’s up 1.6% from last year but down 0.1% from June/July.

Italy seems to be really enjoying Windows Phone. 3.2% up from lat year, 4.1% up from June, 2.9% up from July. Continued upward growth from June, July to August.

Germany is 0.7% up from last year, 1.6% up from June and 2.4% up from July. This shows a dip in July but sudden strange bounce back for August.

Brazil has the biggest change, 10.3% up from last year. I haven’t got data from the previous two months, but I never thought I’d see something as high as 14.9% at this point in time other than in Finland.

Source: WMPU

Cheers Viipottaja for the tip!

BTW here is Finland. Note again this is Statcounter and is not representative of sales (like the data above) but of marketshare of all current devices extrapolated via browser results.

http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-monthly-201202-201209

Windows Phone sales do continue to grow in Finland but at a reduced rate, possibly due to WP8 announcement or competition from new devices. Growth is important but also the pace/rate of growth. One should worry if this slows down so much (especially compared to how the rest of the market is doing) to the point we might see a reverse and decline in share.

Context

Kantar’s results do corroborate Statcounter’s results for growth in UK. As seen here, 4.3% of current new sales lands only 1.51% of all devices in use.

 

Category: Nokia, S60, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com
  • dss

    the eco system is developing very well.. they’ve done a pretty good job for the past 2 years.

  • XSonic

    the growing it’s still too slow compered to the fast symbian decline…
    I think Android is really taking advantage of this.

  • stylinred

    wow look at the year on year drop for symbian

    whats impressive is the 2011 numbers were still so high for Symbian (even when people were saying i was wrong)

    and thats with no significant device from 2010 until today

  • http://thegadgetfreak.net Ajit

    Ha ha, thats a funny twist of the facts…

    Windows fell -0.1% from last year. RIM fell -5% from last year.

    Windows phone dint actually gain any ground to deserve this title.

    The title should actually read

    RIM falls behind Windows Phone in USA

    • Janne

      It actually didn’t, last year’s numbers included Windows Mobile.

      • nn

        And we are sure this year doesn’t? The label says “Windows” not “Win7″ and “WinMobile” is missing.

        • Janne

          That’s how the original source put it when I read this originally.

          • Janne

            Oh am I’m not saying this year doesn’t include Windows Mobile, it most likely does. I’m just saying that last year Windows Mobile still enjoyed significant-enough presence in the U.S. which it doesn’t this year. Thus hiding the gains made by Windows Phone.

            • nn

              Well, how do you know how much less WM is there now if we don’t have the number? Notice that from Jun to Jul WM in US in 2011 actually increased and in 2012 stayed the same.

              But the bigger problem with all these WP/WM numbers is still the same – they are probably well below the margin of error. If you look just at the range of total smartphone sales from several analyst houses, WP sales can fit into the differences couple of times. So theses reported changes in the range of 1 or 2 percent, often even less than that, actually can tell you pretty much nothing (or anything).

              • Janne

                Frankly, when both the (broken down) analyst numbers and conventional logic tells me Windows Phone has grown since pre-Lumia times… I tend to believe it.

                Not only that, I’m still telling you guys – globally speaking – these growing numbers are reflecting the availability of the full Lumia range in Q3/2012. I know many have dismissed that as crap from me, but I maintain the analysis. And if anything saves Nokia’s Q3, it will be that, although it may not be enough of course.

                • Janne

                  By availability I mean that Q3 is the first full quarter of near global, nearly full availability of the WP7 Lumia range. Only the first such quarter, Q2 was still limited.

                  • nn

                    Nokia is no longer targeting global sales. With the exception of China, in Q1 WP phones were sold on all the key markets they are focusing on. From Q2, it is full package including China.

                    • Janne

                      Wrong on so many levels.

                      First, Nokia is still targeting global sales, although they have changed the angle from own-launches to using key partners in various non-focus markets. Don’t overread what they said about the changes in the launch strategy. (Now, this doesn’t mean there can’t be a ramp-up delay for WP8, although I hope there isn’t as much.)

                      Second, Q1 was hardly a full quarter in most places, but more importantly it was missing the most important phones (610 and 900) in all markets. Some markets only had one model (e.g. U.S. only 710). Operators, number of countries, many, many things were very limited in Q1. And they improved only partly for Q2, while Q3 is the best one yet and things are still improving with new operators, deals and regional availability added throughout Q3.

                      This is why Q3 is so different, and if things go well it might save Nokia from complete embarrasment come the Lumia sales numbers, despite the WP8 wait factor which is understandably expected to hurt Lumia sales now.

                    • nn

                      Well, they stated they are “prioritizing key markets”. This is as clear cut statement from Elop’s Nokia you can get. And it even isn’t something controversial, you simply can’t run global sales channel and global marketing on 4 million units per quarter. If you want to continue with this WP madness, keeping just couple of key markets and leaving everything else behind is the only option.

                      I don’t know why you think 610 or 900 are significantly more important phones, so far they seems to deliver sales result that are in line with all previous WP phones. I simply don’t see what country do you expect will deliver this massive growth from these two. Do you even believe there is going to be massive growth? As far as I know the general expectation, including from you, is that Q3 will be same as Q2, maybe million more, maybe million less, but no way they will achieve breakthrough.

                      So what’s the point of this fuss about Q3? I mean besides keeping the goalposts on the move to Q4/Q1 and then to the spring phone, which will save Nokia for once and all, just wait for the 2013 Q2/Q3 “global” availability.

                • nn

                  In other words the numbers fits into your believes, so they must be right.

                  Again, if you look at the US WM numbers from last year, there is actually jump from 0.8 % to 1.2 % between Jul and Jun (50 % growth!!!) and steady sales for this year. What is the logic behind this?

                  Yes, I agree that WM is most probably declining and that WP is probably gaining some share in US, but you can’t tell it from these reports.

      • http://thegadgetfreak.net Ajit

        Again twisting the facts… Windows Mobile had very less share last year, might be 1% or so….

        • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

          Please put your pitchfork down and look at the revised post.

          • http://thegadgetfreak.net Ajit

            Good, lets see how fast Windows Phone Dies, and Nokia regains its senses…..

        • Janne

          I don’t twist facts.

          Sometimes I make mistakes, but this time I didn’t even do that.

          • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

            I believe he’s accusing the title of ‘twisting facts’.

            Is WP’s share higher than RIM in USA? Yes. Fact.
            His concern is the nature in which WP overtook RIM. Whilst RIM is on a fast decline, WP is on a slow incline and at the time of writing the post, it appeared to indicate it was also on a decline. The revised post should indicate otherwise now.

            I think Ajit’s accusations are that this post was too positive and hence was ‘twisting’ the facts. Much like one of our favourite Finn…though sometimes it’s not even fact.

            • Janne

              I doubt it. It was a response to me and specifically discussed the significance of Windows Mobile numbers, none of which were discussed in your title.

              Obviously I was right on this one, but I doubt we’ll see an apology from him anytime soon.

            • http://thegadgetfreak.net Ajit

              Yea, thats what I wanted to convey…

              Windows isnt growing so well as indicated/prophesied… :)

  • Janne

    I think we are witnessing the birth of the vaunted Third Ecosystem.

    There’s progress now, where there once was none…

  • spacemodel

    The numbers in the US are pretty sad, 0.1% down in a period when there were two new high end phones introduced, a enormous amount of money was invested for promotion and the contracts for consumers were so attractive that they were almost giving away for free.

    But still there’s hardly any interest for this platform in the US (and the rest of the world), consumers are not interested, they only want iPhone or Android, it’s a two horse race all over the globe and all the others are simply not existing.

    If rumours are correct and the new ‘flagship’ WP has only 2011 specs than nothing will change and now the marketshare of Symbian has almost disappeared Nokia will be nothing more than a low, very low single digit OEM.

    • Janne

      0.1% down when numbers included Windows Mobile too, aka Windows’s Symbian. Windows Phone alone is ways up this year.

      It is a slow start, but also underlines the predicament of players like RIM. I think we are seeing progress for Nokia’s choice.

      Now, there are now guaranteed of course, but the trend is upwards still.

      • noki

        With all the gazillion NOKIA as been spending promoting the turd one as to wonder if that would not be the case for any turd???

        • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

          Oh Noki, you are so bitter. :p Turd…good one.

      • spacemodel

        @Janne

        Even if the numbers includes WM the total share of about 3% in the US is still almost nothing, Janne.
        The 800 and 900 supposed to be a little breakthrough in the US, we even saw Nicki Minaj on the streets of New York…, but it is nothing more than a disappointment to see such a tiny small marketshare.
        I mean, don’t you expected more, Janne?

        I’m worried for tomorrow, Janne, we always have high hopes when Nokia introduces a new phone but when the ‘leaked’ specs are true than we are in for a bitter surprise.
        The top high end phones in 2012 have quad-core and for Nokia to have any impact the new WP must have Galaxy SIII specs.
        You, I, the rest of us, we all know WP doesn’t need quad-core to perform well but we are just a very small part of all the consumers in the mobile world and we are much better informed compared to those as well.

        If Nokia doesn’t deliver such a phone it will have no impact at all, the iPhone5, the SIII and even the new NoteII will trash it and we all know that Nokia is in no position to miss the train again.

        • Janne

          Now, here’s a fair post. I have nothing against these worries, they are very warranted.

          Yes, I *hoped* for more at least globally speaking and I think Nokia did too. Partly because I expected the full range to be globally available around Q1, not Q3. I don’t think the WP7 Lumia achieved all the goals it set out too, but I think it is quite possible it still set a succesful ball rolling. It has made Nokia the household Windows Phone name, established the Lumia brand and the bold design and colors that go with it. It has also established that Nokia again makes phones that masses see as modern. And it is gaining in volume as cheaper models have been introduced and the global availability has improved.

          I think Nokia is all set to hit this one out the park, but victory or even mediocre success is far from guaranteed. They can still fail, obviously.

        • viktor von d.

          yo chill. as far as we know in july the lumia 900 was beating the crap out of the one x. and untill then it had the nr 2 spot on at&t behind the iphone. how the hell do you expect great marketshare if they are only on one carrier for 4 months. there is also the lumia 710 on t-mobile and that is selling well too. there are virtually on;y 2 winphones in the us that are selling. the other ones, not so much.
          you want marketshare comparable to android. you need nokia to be in the us market for 2 years, to have a couple of phones on every us carrier. that’s the only way

    • Hypnopottamus

      I agree totally. This is the playing field Nokia has to work with nowadays. Setting aside Symbian (which unfortunately was axed much too abruptly) I wonder how a MeeGo strategy would fair. I suspect it would be in the same boat as WP, if not worse. iOS and Android have built such an enormous lead in the smartphone market I’m not sure Nokia could have even done anything with its in-house solutions. It’s a shame that Nokia is reacting to the market rather than trying to stay ahead. It was in such a position 2005-2007. For some reason, all the innovations and forward technology Nokia had was allowed to be overtaken by the iPhone and eventually Android revolutions. Although I really happen to Like WP, I don’t know what it will take to compete w/ the other 2 leading OS’s.

  • noki

    I would not talk about Brazil to much, if you look at the graph is that NOKIA completely owned the market with 71.7 market share, and apparently wen given the chance most symbian users don’t pick windows phone.

    • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

      When given the chance, everyone ditches Symbian.

      • Mark

        Yup. Until you actually use the other, more modern operating systems you don’t realise how utterly inferior it is.

      • KeiZka

        It’s funny how I went back to N900 from E7 (even with Belle)…

        Just saying.

    • migo

      Nokia has a significant foothold in Brazil because of Brazil’s protectionist policies, making it much more expensive to sell phones not made in Brazil. There’s nothing wrong with working with the market conditions, however they are, but you have to understand that Nokia’s Brazilian marketshare has nothing to do with Symbian being good.

      • noki

        all I was stating is that former symbian users chose something else other than wp… conversion rate pessimal.

  • http://www.ameynerkar.wordpress.com Amey Nerkar

    Well not all…………

  • ms.nokia

    it looks positive, slow growth but growth all the same, it should accelerate after wp8/w8.

    • Janne

      It *must* accelerate, obviously.

  • nn

    From the images you added:

    12 w/e 12 Jun 2011 – US – WindowsMobile – 0.8 %
    12 w/e 10 Jul 2011 – US – WindowsMobile – 1.2 %

    I see increase here. (But as I said these are such a small numbers that this probably just noise, as with pretty much all these changes in Windows numbers.)

    • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

      Post updated, was looking at GB for some reason :/

    • nn

      This was reaction to Jay comment which somehow is missing now, feel free to delete this too…

      • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

        Was making multiple comments but posted the wrong one early (confused in sea of tabs)

        Made a note in the actual post above instead. Put a strike through on the errors and added the following:

        June 2011: 1.8% WP 0.8% WM – 2.6% Windows

        July 2011: 2.1% WP 1.2% WM – 3.3% Windows

        June 2012: 3% WP 0.6% WM – 3.6% Windows

        July 2012 2.3% WP 0.6% WM 2.9% Windows

        August 2012: W 3.3% – possibly 0.6% WM again? That would make 2.7% still above RIM. But it doesn’t say whether this number includes WM. It could be 3.3% WP + 0.6% WM but there’s nothing indicating that either other than WMPU’s article….

        I can’t find a link on Kantar but WMPU states 3.3% IS WP whilst 3.4% last year is WP+WM. Though it makes me question why Kantar would ignore WM since it would increase Windows marketshare were WM added unless very negligible. Either way, last two months indicated 0.6% max for WM so 2.3% for WP. Still small growth from last year but growth nonetheless. However this could still be wrong since I can’t seem to find results from August 2011.

  • twig

    The question is Rim? How long can they last? As one of Rims strongholds, the U.K. for win8 is very important. Grab that market.

  • felipe

    Hey Jay, i live in brazil.. Here just nokia sells windows phone, no other brand sell it.. i think all this are lumias, because i never see another wp that isnt lumia to sell.. even in cellphone plans, they sell only lumia’s.

    sorry for my bad english, thanks!

    • Viipottaja

      Oi tubo bem Felipe! De onde esta?

      Your English is fine, certainly better than my limited Portuguese! :)

      Do you know if they started making any other Lumia model than the 710 in Manaus?

      • Lucas Vieira

        Hi! I’m from Brazil too, sorry for my bad english, here in Brazil the most popular windows phones is Samsung Omnia W and Nokia Lumia 710, both sells good, we also have Lumia 800 and 900, the last one has launched just last month.
        But I belive that nokia have the majority of Windows Phone local market share.
        Also answering the Viipottaja question, Only Lumias 710 are made in the Nokia’s plant in Manaus, and only some models of 710, for example, my Black/Blue Lumia 710 is made in Manaus, but I see white/pink Lumias 710 made in Korea. Don’t know about other models of 710. Lumia 800 and 900 came from Korea too.

        Cheers.