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Rumour: Microsoft making their own Windows Phone?

| October 2, 2012 | 101 Replies

 

 

This has been rumoured plenty of times but it’s picking up steam again. It is believed by some sources that Microsoft might just give Nokia a stab in the back by releasing their own phone. Congrats. What a sure way of making sure Windows Phone dies a slow death.

It was bad enough having Nokia limited by WP7.5, and then struggle and wait for Microsoft peeps to decide to work and finish WP8, now there’s rumours that they’re going to try and go their own and release a Surface phone.

On the one side, it might be good to have a ‘Nexus’ type device, something pure as a reference design, like the surface tablet. But what’s the point for the phone range when Nokia’s already doing their best with what they’ve got in WP?

Apparently, Nokia have been focusing too much on the ‘Lumia’ brand as opposed to ‘Windows Phone’. Why should they? Samsung focuses on Galaxy and not Android. Some ramblings connect the dig at Nokia by naming HTC as the ‘signature’ WP.

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Thank goodness Nokia did quite rightly focus on Lumia. Nokia Lumia. If people want a Windows Phone, they should go for Nokia Lumia. Lumia could still potentially be OS agnostic should Nokia’s hand be forced that way. Though they are too far into WP now to back out.

Whilst this is still a rumour, I feel it’s a shame to think that MS couldn’t see that they’ve got some great products ahead from Nokia, and even HTC and Samsung for WP. Much better now in comparison to the competition than they ever have been. What on earth are those manufacturers supposed to think?

Some other random ‘rumours’ I’ve seen say HTC and Nokia are supposedly merging. Or as per usual  Nokia is being bought by MS, hence MS making their own phone.

Source: BGRWPCentral

Cheers all for the tip!

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Category: Nokia

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com
  • Mark

    It’s possible. I think they’ll have the same problem as Google though.

    MS may have to face facts that Lumia is the brand and, frankly, as ‘Windows Phone’ is a clunky mouthful compared to iPhone or Android then it’s not a bad idea.

    • http://mynokiablog.com Jay Montano

      Microsoft shouldn’t worry about ‘the brand’ being Lumia if it can sell them Windows Phones.

      If they’re worried about current sales, things may look better with the new phones being so much more competitive.

      Perhaps MS are worried that Lumia being bigger than WP, could decide to make Lumia something OS agnostic and ditch MS if/when Nokia get healthy enough.

      Although Nokia aren’t there yet, there are signs of good momentum (especially the very positive reaction towards Nokia Lumia 920/Nokia/Nokia maps), trying to stop Nokia that way might end up sealing Windows Phone’s death.

      Dunno, just speculating.

      • Mark

        I agree but I get the horrible feeling some idiot in marketing is trying to bind everything under one heading and missing the point. The Lumia will sell because it has new and innovative features, that’s why the polls show it ahead of the HTC and Samsung models in WP prospective buyers polls.

        WP can go along for the ride and enhance the package because if it’s better than WP7.5 it will offer an excellent user experience which is certainly part of the deal but the OS is not the be all and end all. If it was then there would be a more even distribution of Android high end sales rather than the SGS III demolishing everything else.

        People do not buy iPhones because of iOS. They buy them because they’re cool (although that’s debatable these days), very easy to use and have a great ecosystem. People do not buy high end Android sets because of Android. They buy Samsung because it’s well known, feature packed, has a great ecosystem and is almost as easy to use as iOS. People will not buy WP because it’s made by Microsoft, they will by the best combination of hardware, user experience and ecosystem. Right now that comes from Nokia.

      • Oleg Derevenetz

        While there is a certain risk for me to be branded as “Tomi’s apologyst”, there may be a grain of truth in some of his statements, namely regarding Nokia’s retail. Two years ago, when all this WP-related stuff was just planned, Nokia had rather strong relations with retail channels, so it was some sense for MS to ally with Nokia to use these relations. Now Nokia (in the person of Elop) just sitting and crying “oh, all these poor retailers, they are refusing to sell our phones”, and he is right (may be this because of “Elop effect”, or WP OS itself, doesn’t really matter). So, in terms of retail relationship, Nokia isn’t a valuable partner for MS anymore. Hence MS desire to try to build retail relationship themselves. This is a next logical step for MS.

        • dss

          They got it down here in the US .. TMO, ATT, and Verizon are all on board, and i don’t think they care who makes the hardware, they are on with the platform.

          • Oleg Derevenetz

            So WP is US-only OS (well, may be also a bit of Western Europe OS)? :) How about the rest of the world? Eastern Europe, Near East, Asia, South America? I don’t know how long will take for MS to foothold in all these regions, while Nokia constantly losing ground there, quarter by quarter.

            • Michael Prince

              How about Microsoft uses it’s resources to support Nokia and make sure they are successful.

              • Oleg Derevenetz

                Does it really help? Especially outside of US and Western Europe?

                • Michael Prince

                  Yeah it does help.

                  • Oleg Derevenetz

                    Any numbers to prove your words? For example, Lumia sales in India or Mexico?

                • Z A E E N T E C H

                  Yes it helps a lot. Mark my word, since Asia alone will be the biggest market in the world for any high end and low end mobile devices bigger than even USA+Europe combined within few years.

            • dss

              Pretty much.. its like iOS, without mobile internet, its sort of lost..all the “cool” features like siri and such don’t work, news updates, weather updates (things you use on the go) also become useless.

              I am not saying that there isn’t mobile internet across the globe, but it seems like its relatively cheaper within the EU and the US, so more people use it. I mean, carriers in the US pretty much make you buy a data plan with your smartphone..

              • Oleg Derevenetz

                Do you really mean that there is no mobile Internet outside of US and Western Europe? :) LOL.

        • Dave

          What about:
          1) all the other OEMs, HTC manages 150 carriers for their WP8 devices
          2) all MS hardware is going to be sold only in their own stores, not on carriers, and not in bestbuy/walmart/mediamarkt

          It’s disingenious to blame Elop for Nokia’s soured relationship with carriers, when they dumped the N97 turd and only kept S60v5 coming in the face of ever cheaper and more powerful Androids. Things were not all peachy until the clock struck noon on Feb 2011, that’s Ahonen’s BS.

          • Oleg Derevenetz

            Well, as many times was pointed out, Elop’s objective was to make things better, not worse. While relationships with retailers possibly was not-so-good before Elop (I can suppose that), Elop just make things worse, not better. Regarding all other OEMs, while they usually bet on Android (and perceive WP products as some sort of experimental products), they in fact doesn’t care much about WP. They prefer to promote products that sells well. Nokia, on the other hand, doesn’t seems to have alternative to WP. Therefore, other OEMs are interested in promotion of WP to retailers significantly less than Nokia.

            • Dave

              Why would you say relations are worse? Does any retailer want to have S60v5 devices? Do you think they would have sold Symbian devices? Good example is AT&T testing the X7 in 2011 and dropping it, because it failed all consumer testing. They did take the Lumia 900.

              (Yes, we can argue Elop would have had more (short term) success with an Android device, but that’s not making things worse, but making things “less better”, a bit pedantic I agree, but I don’t see Nokia having such great retailer relations anymore in Feb 2011, after N97 and almost no progress in their devices)

              Also, retailers seem very optimistic about WP8, and virtually all will have a decent WP8 selection.

              • Oleg Derevenetz

                Why would I say relations are worse? Just look at numbers – numbers of sales for all these ugly S60v5 devices in time, and all these fantastic WP devices now. Do you see the difference?

                Regarding WP8, we all know how all these retailers was “optimistic” about Lumia 800/900… And we all know Lumia sales numbers as well.

                • Dave

                  The S60v5 sales were declining hard long before Feb 2011. The ones that still keep getting sold are ever cheaper and cheaper, at a lower pricepoint than WP7.

                  Let’s make it optimistic in the sense that they’re going to carry the devices, and not just talking. The Lumia 900 did not do that bad on AT&T, after you get rid of the unrealistic expectations and see they don’t sell that many non-iPhones to begin with. It has been in the top 2-3 most sold device for months

                  Of course if Android occupies positions 5-30 Android will sell more. But for a low-spec device to be in the top 2-3 for so long means it really is not a bad device.

                  • Oleg Derevenetz

                    In fact, S60v5 units sales wasn’t declining, they grew, but grew slower then overall smartphone market, so their marketshare slowly declining. In that time Nokia had so strong retailer relations that they even managed to sell all these ugly S60v5 devices more and more units each quarter. That’s an art of building retailer relationships :) Now Nokia cuts Lumia prices like crazy, but it honestly doesn’t seems to help a lot, even in units, not mention marketshare.

                    • Dave

                      I don’t have access to the numbers, just things like the following:

                      http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/elop-effect-did-not-crash-nokia-yes-this-is-true/

                      The Lumia’s were just pricecut recently, and seems to be selling very well. How would you already have data on the effects?

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      Well, all these numbers are right there, in official Nokia quarterly results. For example, smartphone sales numbers in 2010 (units):

                      Q1 – 21.5M
                      Q2 – 24M
                      Q3 – 26.5M
                      Q4 – 28.3M

                      In 2011:

                      Q1 – 24.2M (partially affected by Elop Effect)
                      Q2 – 16.7M

                      and so on. Do you see the difference? As I already said, smartphones units sales are increased quarter by quarter before Q1 2011, but slower than overall market sales.

                    • migo

                      The S60v5 units that were selling were cheap as hell, and those sales suddenly dropped the moment Androids crept into that low price point. There was a great infographic released last year that compared the price of every Symbian phone to its logical Android competitor, and each Android was cheaper than the Symbian.

                      People only bought S60v5 devices because they were cheap, most of them didn’t even consider them to be smartphones. Anyone thinking of spending more would automatically choose something other than Symbian, unless it was for the N8 camera.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      migo, so, if I understand correctly:

                      1. These S60v5 was cheap as hell;
                      2. But the corresponding Android competitors was even cheaper;
                      3. But S60v5 sales (in units) grew anyway? :)

                      If so, then we all have to take our hats off to Nokia sales division at these days :)

                    • Dave

                      The danger in using absolute numbers is that you are not accounting for market growth. If the market grows extra fast in 2010-Q3Q4, this inflates the absolute Symbian sales numbers, even if still less and less people choose Symbian. Then if the growth slows down a bit (like it always does in Q1), you get a very dramatic drop in absolute numbers, even though nothing exciting actually happened.

                      The link I posted below (above?:) does a better explanation.

                      It’s quite a bold claim to say what Elop did on Feb 11 is responsible for that kind of drop all by itself. It needs more proof than a correlation.

                      (He had an effect of course, but Symbian was doomed long before that)

                    • Dave

                      Another argument is the lag involved in sales. It’s basically impossible for an event to have such an immediate effect; note nobody says the event did not happen, just that it can’t be attributed to Feb 11:

                      http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/closing-on-elop-effect/

                    • Dave

                      “””
                      Why would I say relations are worse? Just look at numbers – numbers of sales for all these ugly S60v5 devices in time, and all these fantastic WP devices now
                      “””

                      Actually retailers have been extremely consistent. They don’t sell absolute numbers, they sell X% products Symbian, and Y% Android, and so on. Note that “X” has been dropping since before Q1 2010.

                      The market grew by 30% 2010Q3, and by 26% 2010Q4. Then by 0% in 2011Q1.

                      Retailers did not stop selling Symbian, there was just less market growth, with an ever lowering interest in Symbian, which accounts for the sharp drop in absolute numbers.

                      In fact, both RIM and motorola suffered exactly the same effect!

                      Elop effect is very strong :)

                      You should look at relative sales, not absolute sales.

                      http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/meaning-of-market-share-clarified/

                    • migo

                      No, you have it wrong. Once the corresponding Androids were cheaper, S60v5 sales took a dive.

                    • jiipee

                      First with Symbian then with WP7. L900 is not really something the resellers want to talk about…
                      disclaimer: I believe WP8 can still be success greatly thanks to the non-WP innovation Nokia has put in 920. Evenif WP8 works for Nokia, they have made enormous mistakes after Feb11. Imagine Nokia selling 920 tech with Android now. The tech world would be crying out loud to get it. And it would be out already. Okok, they might need to use Google’s services, unless they had followed Amazon’s path and possibly partnered with them. Now that would be an ecosystem, where Nokia also could earn! If you look at Navteq PL, you notice that it is peanuts in comparison, what Android Nokia would have brought to table. And still they could put their best effort to WP8 when it is ready and just copy the form factor and tech to Android.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “If the market grows extra fast in 2010-Q3Q4, this inflates the absolute Symbian sales numbers, even if still less and less people choose Symbian.”

                      You are putting the cart before the horse :) Units ARE people. Growth in units means that more and more people buy Symbian, however not such many as Android. It was a huge achievement for Nokia sales division, given the fact that all these S60v5 devices was simply uncompetitive with corresponding Android devices. I don’t say that this could go on forever, but this progress (with absolute units sales growth) was achieved solely due to strong retail relationships, without any valuable help from Nokia engineering team. If Elop would have been a little smarter, he would not have to destabilize these strong relationships by reckless and pointless statements.

                      “Retailers did not stop selling Symbian, there was just less market growth, with an ever lowering interest in Symbian, which accounts for the sharp drop in absolute numbers.”

                      Well, this is a plain speculation. Suppose (for a moment) that absolute drop in numbers was caused solely by overall market grows of 0% in 2011Q1. Ok. But later overall smartphone market continued to grow, so, if “Elop effect” is totally innocent, overall trends must continue – i.e. Symbian sales in absolute numbers should begin to grow again, though slower than Android sales. But we see the opposite – even absolute sales numbers are crashing like hell. So “Elop effect innocence” argument doesn’t hold.

                      2 migo:

                      “No, you have it wrong. Once the corresponding Androids were cheaper, S60v5 sales took a dive.”

                      Once again:

                      1. These S60v5 was cheap as hell;
                      2. But the corresponding Android competitors was even cheaper;
                      3. But S60v5 sales (in units) grew anyway every quarter just before the 2011Q1.

                      Please point out specific item in this list that I have wrong.

                    • migo

                      2 is wrong. The reason S60v5 sales took a dive after 2Q11 was because that’s when Androids got cheaper. While S60v5 sales were still climbing, Androids were more expensive. The dive of S60v5 had nothing to do with Feb 11, and everything to do with them not having a single redeeming quality to make anyone buy them anymore. Up until that point, they only had one redeeming quality – price. And that’s why Symbian was terrible and needed to be ditched.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 migo: I found that infographics you are talking about. While this infographics contains truth, it isn’t the whole truth :) This infographics covers only S^3 phones, but there always was Android phones that was cheaper that S60v5 ones. Just for instance, LG GT540 Optimus was released in May 2010, has 600MHz CPU, 256M RAM and screen resolution 320×480 for a price about $200. Nokia 5800, on the other hand, has price about $250-$300 back in 2010. So it just looks as nother speculation for me.

                    • Dave

                      @Oleg said: “””
                      Ok. But later overall smartphone market continued to grow, so, if “Elop effect” is totally innocent, overall trends must continue – i.e. Symbian sales in absolute numbers should begin to grow again, though slower than Android sales. But we see the opposite – even absolute sales numbers are crashing like hell. So “Elop effect innocence” argument doesn’t hold.”””

                      No, because every single quarter the number of people out of a 100 who buy Symbian have been decreasing. There isn’t some weird market where the first 30M sales go to Symbian and the rest to other, the market works like X out of 100 people buy Symbian, and X has been steadily dropping since Q1 2010 at least.

                      So by Q2 2011 X is low enough that the market would need to grow by enormous numbers to maintain stable unit sales. Didn’t you say yourself unit sales remained flat from Q3 to Q4 2010? The market grew by 65% cumulative % during that time! And sales remained flat! That means that out of every 100 very few people still buy Symbian, and it means that when the market does not grow the results are extra dramatic in absolute numbers.

                      If you want to claim steady sales, the market growth needs to be 0%. Absolute numbers are complete useless here; if you look at “how many people out of 100 buy Symbian”, then you see a nice steep decline LONG BEFORE Elop came in, with Feb 11 hardly making a dent in that line.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “No, because every single quarter the number of people out of a 100 who buy Symbian have been decreasing.”

                      But the overall count of these hundreds of people is increasing. For example, if we have 30% marketshare in Q1, and 25% marketshare in Q2, but overall market growth in Q2 was 25%, then in Q1 we will sell 30 smartphones to a market of 100 people, while in Q2 we will sell 31 smartphone to a market of 125 people. That’s what I mean.

                      “So by Q2 2011 X is low enough that the market would need to grow by enormous numbers to maintain stable unit sales.”

                      I’m not sure about that. In previous quarters market growth numbers was more than enough for Nokia sales to grow. Any numbers to prove your point?

                      “Didn’t you say yourself unit sales remained flat from Q3 to Q4 2010?”

                      No, they are increased almost uniformly within a year. There was a small decline in growth rate in 2010Q4 over 2010Q3 (as I think, due to slowdown in overall market growth), but in fact I can’t say that they “remains flat”:

                      Q2 over Q1: +2.5M
                      Q3 over Q2: +2.5M
                      Q4 over Q3: +1.8M

                    • Dave

                      “””But the overall count of these hundreds of people is increasing. For example, if we have 30% marketshare in Q1, and 25% marketshare in Q2, but overall market growth in Q2 was 25%, then in Q1 we will sell 30 smartphones to a market of 100 people, while in Q2 we will sell 31 smartphone to a market of 125 people. That’s what I mean.”””

                      Well, using your numbers:
                      The trends continue, in Q3 you have 20% of marketshare, and the market did not grow at all. You will now sell Symbian to 20% of 125 people, that’s 25 units.

                      Then in Q4 you have 15% of marketshare (and this trend has been very visible and constant from way before Elop joined), and a market which grows maybe 10%. So you have 15% of 138 people, so 20 units.

                      Then in Q1 again you have 10% of marketshare, and the market grows 15%. So you have 10% of 160 people, so 16 units.

                      Then in Q2 you have 5% of marketshare, and the market grows 20%. Now you have 5% of 192 people, so 10 units.

                      The marketshare decline (aka “the number of people out of every 100 who buy Symbian”) is very clear, very constant, and started way before Elop.

                      The absolute numbers being steady for 2-3 quarters is just statistical fud, it doesn’t show anything positive.

                      Retailers are selling a certain percentage based on the number of customers, and in that statistic Feb 2011 has no significant impact, nor is it anywhere near the start of the decline.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “Well, using your numbers:”

                      My numbers was just for illustration :) Regarding real Nokia marketshare decline, it was not such sharp as in mu example. For example, Nokia’s Y2Y marketshare decline (not Q2Q) between 2010Q1 and 2011Q1 was just 5.5%:

                      http://techcrunch.com/2011/05/20/nokia-sees-lowest-market-share-in-14-years-gartner/

                      So I repeat my question again – do you have some real numbers to prove your point regarding “need for enormous increase in market growth”?

                    • Dave

                      I argue 2 things:

                      1) absolute numbers are meaningless.

                      Better, longer explanation: http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/meaning-of-market-share-clarified/

                      2) the relevant statistic is: “how many people out of a 100 buy Symbian”. That number has been in steady decline:

                      http://dominiescommunicate.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/elop_effect_market_share.png

                      The choice of numbers in the example are not relevant, they only show the effect. Having stable *absolute* sales in 2 quarters and then a sudden drop in *absolute* sales the next quarter is the effect of market growth fluctuation, NOT of retailer performance. Retailer performance is measured by “out of every 100 customers, how many buy Symbian”. And as the graph shows, that measure’s drop is not attributable to Elop.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “Having stable *absolute* sales in 2 quarters and then a sudden drop in *absolute* sales the next quarter is the effect of market growth fluctuation, NOT of retailer performance.”

                      I already answered to this. I can repeat it again – if it was so, then absolute numbers were to start rising again once fluctuation is gone and overall market growth continues. But it wasn’t so. In response to this, you say that “Nokia marketshare decline was so huge that rising of absolute numbers require enormous increase in market growth”. I have shown you that Nokia marketshare decline wasn’t so “huge” – just 5.5% Y2Y, so it doesn’t require any “enormous increase” in market growth to increase again when this fluctuation gone. If you can’t prove you words by numbers, but only speculative thinking, our discussion becomes a bit pointless.

                    • Dave

                      “””I already answered to this. I can repeat it again – if it was so, then absolute numbers were to start rising again once fluctuation is gone and overall market growth continues. But it wasn’t so
                      “””

                      No, because like I already said, the percentage of customers buying Symbian is in decline, it is not stable, and if it drops faster than the market rises, it does not result in higher unit sales, it only results in less steep drops.

                      “””Nokia marketshare decline wasn’t so “huge” – just 5.5% Y2Y, so it doesn’t require any “enormous increase” in market growth to increase again when this fluctuation gone. If you can’t prove you words by numbers, but only speculative thinking, our discussion becomes a bit pointless.”””

                      (Make sure we’re talking about sales, not installbase, as the latter lags)

                      Market share decline:

                      Q2 2010 | 39%
                      Q3 2010 | 33% | -15%
                      Q4 2010 | 28% | -15%
                      Q1 2011 | 24% | -16% (Elop Effect)

                      Market size:

                      Q2 2010 | 61.5 M
                      Q3 2010 | 80.3 M | +31%
                      Q4 2010 | 101.1 M | +26%
                      Q1 2011 | 100.8 M | -0%

                      Absolute sales will drop whenever the market size growth is less than the Symbian marketshare drop. So the Q3+Q4 “positive” absolute sales number are just the drop being masked by huge market growth.

                      I see you’re not interested in reading the links I posted, and I don’t think we’re getting anywhere.

                      So you can keep insisting retailers massively dropped Symbian at noon on Feb 2011, to punish Nokia, and I’ll keep insisting there sales were not affected by it and are perfectly in line with the already existing trend.

                      Deal?

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “Market share decline:”

                      I don’t know where you get these numbers. Gartner shows totally different numbers:

                      http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1689814

                      namely, 30.6% marketshare for Nokia in 2010Q1 and 25.1% in 2011Q1, with 5.5% drop, just as I say before, not 39% and 24% as in your numbers. Additinally, 2011Q1 was just partially affected by “Elop effect”, so real consequences appears later, in the following quarter.

                      “I see you’re not interested in reading the links I posted, and I don’t think we’re getting anywhere.”

                      I have read all this articles from ANONYMOUSEXNOKIAN long time ago, and I doesn’t agree with him, partially because of number manipulations, like with marketshare numbers, as I shown above. So I’m trying to explain you why I think that ANONYMOUSEXNOKIAN is wrong, and urge you to use your own brain instead of ANONYMOUSEXNOKIAN’s (or Tomi Ahonen’s as opposite) and independent data sources as well.

                    • Dave

                      “””
                      that Nokia marketshare decline wasn’t so “huge” – just 5.5% Y2Y,
                      “””

                      How to interpret 5.5% YoY?

                      Example, just to illustrate the effect;

                      Total, Nokia %, Nokia absolute sales
                      100M 30% 30M
                      150M 24.5% 37M

                      What can be argued:
                      – Nokia lost only 5.5% YOY
                      – Nokia increased absolute sales

                      What I argue:
                      – 20% fewer people are buying Nokia than before (going from 30 to 24.5 is a drop of ~20%).

                      This is the relevant statistic because it is NOT dependent on market growth, it is simply the percentage of customers buying Nokia, it doesn’t matter if there are 100 customers (buy 25 phones) or 1000 customers (buy 250) phones.

                      Your 5.5% is a lower number and sounds “less bad”, but it’s the wrong number because it ignores the effects of market growth. Out of every 100 customers, 25% LESS buy Symbian now. Not 5.5% less. This 5.5% number changes with 100 customers, versus 1000 customers, versus 1M customers.

                    • Dave

                      And yes, that’s my own brain, thank you.

                      The middle column, “the number of customers out of a 100 that buy Symbian” is the important starting number.

                      The right side (absolute sales) comes plugging in the middle number to the left (market size).

                      Not the other way around. You can’t start with the 30M and then back-count your way to the market share.

                      It all starts with “how many people out of a hundred buy Symbian”. Every quarter again. Regardless of market size.

                      That percentage * total customers = absolute sales.

                      And that percentage is what was dropping before Elop, and continued dropping after Elop.

                      Absolut sales is completely meaningless unless you know which 2 numbers you multiplied to get it.

                      And we know one of those numbers is dropping every quarter. We don’t care how much it drops compared to the left side of the equation, we care how much it drops compared to itself in the previous quarter.

                      The rest is just arithmetic.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave,

                      The discussion goes around again :) While I agree that Nokia marketshare gradually decreased even before 2011Q1, I’m not agree that Nokia sales drop in ABSOLUTE values after that Q is relevant only to this marketshare decrease, and not to Elop’s actions. If you are still trying to say that those enormous sales drops in ABSOLUTE values are relevant solely to marketshare losses, then confirm this by your numbers please, not speculations, and not these numbers from ANONYMOUSEXNOKIAN, because he is proved numbers manipulator, as I shown above. Use numbers from independent sources please.

                    • Dave

                      You have not showed anything about his numbers.

                      I showed you how your 5.5% YoY does not mean anything if you ignore the effects of market growth. You have this big multiplier in all of your statistics that you’re ignoring.

                      Fact is that every quarter after quarter, for every 100 customers, fewer and fewer buy Symbian. This decline did not significantly increase in Feb 2011.

                      The rest all follows from there. Absolute sales is just a result of a multiplication which is meaningless if you ignore half of its factors.

                      I don’t care about convincing you so I am not going to spend hours coming up with numbers so you can dismiss them anyway (and no doubt you will consider that a vindication that yes Symbian was doing great and yes retailers massively stopped selling Symbian because Elop is a poopyhead)

                      I do want to thank you for bringing this up, because I always did wonder about Ahonen’s absolute sales numbers that Symbian was doing peachy, and I now understand the error in that reasoning and why it’s BS.

                      Great!

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “The rest is just arithmetic.”

                      So show your numbers please :) Let’s take that smartphone market begins to grow again by 26% in 2011Q2 (just the same amount like in 2010Q4). Can you make numerical projections of Nokia’s unit sales in 2011Q2 according to your methodology?

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      “You have not showed anything about his numbers.”

                      I have showed that his numbers are taken from… noone knows where he taked them :) They are totally unrelated to reality. And I still see just common la-la from you instead of metodology that can prove you point. Can you offer some numbers calculated using your metodology please?

                    • Dave

                      Q2 grew by 8%, not 26%.

                      However, Nokia’s customers did abandon Symbian at a faster rate than the previous quarter. (16M sold instead of 21M expected by numbers I used).

                      Feb 11 was about halfway in the quarter. So assuming 100% of the effect is due to Elop, at 1Q1 Nokia sold 10.5M devices.
                      Then in 2Q1 they sold only 5.5M, to get to the 16M total.

                      The Q2 the market was 108M, so if the real rate is now 11M since Q1 (and that’s optimistic since it should be declining sharply since Feb 11, and not stabilize at the average) we expect at most 12M devices in Q2 after accounting for the the market share increase of 8%. But we assumed the sales were dropping sharply since Feb 11, so we’d expect even less.

                      But they sold 16.7M in Q2

                      So I agree it is not as simple as market share masking unit sales. Thank you for making me check the numbers!

                      But I also disagree Feb 11 was the causal event for Nokia’s troubles afterwards, or that there is some retailer conspiracy.

                      Retailers are recommending Symbian less and less, and this has a larger influence on conversion rates than customer’s opinion about Symbian. However, there is also the constant flooding of cheap Androids onto the market. All of which could account for the sales numbers as well.

                      The numbers don’t support a sharp changepoint in the middle of Q1, which then magically corrects itself in Q2. It’s more likely there are other factors affecting sales. It still *could* be all Elop, but I don’t see the proof in these numbers. Do you?

                    • Oleg Derevenetz

                      2 Dave:

                      Well, numbers from you are clear. However, there still may be some corrections, for example: most retailers pre-orders some amounts of devices, this smooths sales drop in Q2 due to Elop effect (because they need to sell devices that they are already pre-ordered anyway). However, it’s hard to say exact numbers for these corrections. Also, I’m not aware of market growth numbers in the following quarters after Q2 (if market growth later was significantly faster than 8% in Q2 then Nokia can sell in Q3 more than 21M devices projected by you in Q2, if it solely depends just on market growth dynamic). Anyway, I should thank you for this analysis and I think you should agree that Feb 11 undoubtedly influenced subsequent Nokia sales numbers, may be, not for 100% :)

                    • Dave

                      “I think you should agree that Feb 11 undoubtedly influenced subsequent Nokia sales numbers, may be, not for 100%”

                      Sounds fair. What I wanted to address is that it was not a turning point of turning good sales into bad sales, customers were fleeing long before, and after, Feb. It of course did not help it either :)

                      Thanks for the discussion, I will avoid this site on october 18 :-)

        • viktor von d.

          nokia isn’t of value anymore to ms? they are the only ones who kept wp7 alive and gives wp8 a fighting change. if nokia fails,wp8 will aill.ms needs nokia

          • Oleg Derevenetz

            There is a possibility that MS doesn’t think that Nokia does well enough (and, honestly, for good reason), so they now want to try to push WP themselves.

            • Dave

              What would you say is the reason Nokia is not doing well, that would be different with MS? Design? Service? Branding?

              • Oleg Derevenetz

                Different retail relationship building strategy & tactics, I suppose. May be different promo strategy & tactics as well. More flexible adaptation for customer needs in different regions, different pricing policy. There are many options.

                • dss

                  No.. they will use Nokia until they can. I mean, why wouldn’t they ? Even if Nokia is not their priority, is not like Nokia has a choice in the matter.. they will keep making the hardware anyway, and Microsoft will get some distribution out of it.

                  In the mean time, Microsoft can do whatever they want .. they are not the ones in trouble, not really, Nokia is..

                  Microsoft has HTC in their pocket, Samsung is playing as well, so.. all they really need from Nokia is the initial PUSH (which is what is happening right now), and once the ball starts rolling, their importance becomes.. not so important.

                  • Oleg Derevenetz

                    Why wouldn’t they? Because in Elopia things are not going well by any measure, that’s why.

              • migo

                I’d go with design. The iPhone has a symmetrical design. The best selling Androids (which Apple sues for copying) have a symmetrical design. Most Nokias don’t. Given the attention to detail that MS put on the Surface, they’d at least get that part right.

                • dss

                  The N9 is the most symmetrical phone you can find.. best phone design to date if you ask me.

                  • Adriano

                    +1

                  • migo

                    If it didn’t have those stupid sharp edges at the top and bottom, I’d be inclined to agree.

  • http://chriswwwright.wordpress.com/ Chriswwwright

    I don’t see this as such a bad thing for Nokia, if MS do release their own phone. If it raises the profile of WP8 then it could benefit all the OEMs who are in it for the long haul.
    After all, a rising tide floats all boats, and if it brings an extra 50 million users to the platform, their next upgrade could be to a Nokia Lumia WP.
    One premium handset a year or something would keep the platform from going stale.

    • Fz

      Yeah, Nokia keeps on repeating the same mantra, “It’s a war of ecosystems.” If they give maps to other WP devices and making them better because of that, then why would they be afraid of MS phone(s).

      Then again it might go horribly wrong. At the moment Nokia Lumia models might be the first phones that come to your mind thinking about WP. There are two different ways how this could go with the MS phone, the iOS or the Android way, or maybe something in between. If this model is really high end, it might be seen as _THE_ Windows Phone device, almost what iPhone is for iOS. On the other hand it could be like Nexus is for Android. Nice but for most consumers nothing special above others.

      One time release might not be that bad but yearly high end models might be a problem. You can see what Surface has done with Windows 8 tablets and it’s only one release of two models. Surface is cool. I think there has already been other W8 tablets shown too, but I can’t remember manufacturer or name of a single one. That’s how cool Surface looks compared to others. Nokia can win only by having better design than this possible MS phone. That’s the only way for Lumias to be even as profilic for WP as Nexus’ are for Android.

  • jiipee

    Apple could well start a bidding war just to get the price up.what would they get?
    Their map solution sucks ->Nokia
    Their camera apparently sucks -> Nokia
    they dont need the brand and sell it to India or China.
    They would delay the spread of WP. Also some Nokia resources anf Lumia brand could bevaluable to MS. ZTE would be happy to have NSN wit the right price. Asha’s can be sold separately.
    And on top of it all, they would save some billions in royalties and could sue everyone.

  • Luisito

    Don’t be surprise if one of these days MS release their own Phone, they wanna the control of their ecosystem anyway… They migh be just waiting to see how WP OEM salles perform…

  • James Scott

    I really doubt if Microsoft is going to release their own phone unless Nokia becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of Microsoft.

    • Tom

      They did release surface tablet. What stops them from releasing a phone?

      Lets say the new MS phones are big hit. I am sure MS would want to sell more of them. Where does that leave Nokia in their WP only strategy?

      • Dave

        Lets say the new HTC phones are big hit. I am sure HTC would want to sell more of them. Where does that leave Nokia in their WP only strategy?

        Lets say the new Samsung phones are big hit. I am sure Samsung would want to sell more of them. Where does that leave Nokia in their WP only strategy?

        Let’s get WP firmly in place as 3rd-2nd ecosystem first.

        • dss

          Nokia ignored these two scenarios.. as they should. ……..

      • migo

        The Surface isn’t being widely sold. It’s a kick in the pants for other OEMs to design better devices themselves.

        Nokia’s already doing that, HTC is responding to Nokia, and Samsung’s already leading with Android and just re-using that with WP, which still has them where they need to be with specs at least…

        • jiipee

          That is possible, but unknown fact so far. The indications that can be get from pricing may say that MS is serious.
          In any case the channels are a bit different. Everyone here seems to forget that there is business market as well. And especially for computers it is more lucrative and profitable than the consumer market. Evenif Surface is sold only via MS stores & online for consumers (which I dont believe) they can still invest in business segment channel, where Nokia used to be strong also.

          • migo

            If they were serious, you could buy it somewhere other than a Microsoft store.

            • jiipee

              We’ll see when/if it happens

  • dss

    I would if I were them.. it will go well with their tablet.

  • Abhay

    Even if MS release its new phone, it wont sell enough.

    Two reasons:

    1. OS would need to be same on all phones, so they cant take any advantage their.

    2. MS is not a most preferred brand in people.

    • jiipee

      3. They dont have the necessary channels

  • *****

    You know what, I say, good for microsoft.

    Remember what happened with Symbian?

    Nokia started off as an OEM, became number one, than even before nokia brought Symbian in-house, Symbian became the “Nokia OS”

    Microsoft DOES NOT want this to happen, and this might actually happen. Remember a few months ago when we found that Lumia has a larger brand recognition than Windows Phone?

    Microsoft does not want Windows phone to equal Nokia OS. Thus, they can release a phone to keep Nokia on its toes.

  • Del

    Microsoft already stubbed Nokia in the back when they said that HTC 8X is a true Windows 8 phone.

  • http://www.vladest.org vladest

    haha, same old story
    never, never, never play (deal, act etc) with m$, my little boy

  • migo

    It doesn’t make sense for the same reason that it made sense for them to do the Surface.

    They did the surface because none of their OEMs were pushing the envelope to really compete with Apple in tablets, so they had to do something by themselves. Dell gets what they’re doing, Acer doesn’t.

    In the case of Windows Phone, they’ve got Nokia really pushing the envelope with capabilities, and HTC also settled on the WP trade dress Nokia went for, so between the two of them, they’ve got some very good offerings with a good reason to buy them over competing Android products and the iPhone.

    Besides, there are only 3 companies right now who know how to make good phone phones – Nokia, Motorola and RIM (it used to be 4 with Sanyo, but they exited the market a while back). If MS were to make a Surface phone, and they wanted it to be perfect, they’d have to get Nokia to build it for them. Which I could actually go for – they’re more likely to get the symmetry right than Nokia is.

  • noki

    Microsoft wants to be the next apple reaping revenues from cheep outsourced hardware made in china, Nokia is expandable in this new strategy…

    Will it work??? probably not, will it kill nokia? probably has already.

  • twig

    This comes out everytime there’s a new Nokia launch coming up. 3rd time, right on schedule.

    • Bloob

      Well, the stock was in danger of rising, you know.

  • Mario

    That would be the ultimate d1ck move by Microsoft.

    Swear words aside, why on Earth would Microsoft do that is beyond me. That their PC OEMs needed to be shown how to do a tablet is mildly credible (but I think Asus got the right idea with the Transformer chassis) but if anything, it is Nokia that has shown the world how to do WP devices. And they aren’t even skinning the OS like Android OEMs do.

    • migo

      Well that’s the thing. All the good PC tablet designs are laptop hybrids. (Which makes the most sense for Windows 8, but that’s another story). None of them were doing anything to directly address the iPad.

    • Just Visiting

      At the end of the day, none of the WP oems are a ‘shoe in’ – there is the possibility that Nokia may decide to focus on a different OS in a few years, Samsung and HTC may decide to swap WP for a different OS altogether, and RIM is on record to being open to licensing their OS as well.

      Microsoft needs to test the waters with this ‘rumored’ device; obviously, since the device is only going to be sold through Microsoft, they don’t plan to sell a great deal of units, just as they don’t plan to sell a lot of Surface tablets. But, if the reception is good for this Microsoft phone, they will at least have a fall back plan should one or more of the oems decide to jump off of the WP ship.

      I also agree with a poster on another blog – that Microsoft could possibly use this phone as an entry into Enterprise, which will rival Blackberry.

      I see little evidence that the impetus of this phone is same as the Surface tablet, especially where Nokia is concerned, as Nokia needs no motivation to innovate their hardware. And HTC, despite their claims, has been motivated by Nokia’s designs, not Microsoft’s ‘input’.

      The Lumia line is on the lips of many, including non techy folks, and that is good for both Nokia and WP.

  • shallow ocean shoal

    You guys sure do love jumping to conclusions. You need a “Jump To Conclusions” mat.

    “For the Windows Phone 8 launch this autumn Microsoft is rightly relying on its strong mobile partners and their hardware and channel expertise,” he notes. “If Microsoft were to make its own Windows Phone device without working through partners, it would be a last resort strategy. That would risk driving its current partners away.”

  • mawire

    Why do you think Nokia didn’t make a windows 8 tablet?? Its part of the agreement between Nokia & MS…you make phones and we make Tablets

    • migo

      That wasn’t the agreement. The agreement was that Nokia makes Windows Phones, and it’s up to them what they want to do with tablets.

  • satya

    Clearly nokia becoming bitch of MS and is highly untrusted partner.now on i see only two options for nokia
    1)die with wp
    2)develope product side by side with android with wp and then show what nokia is capable of to that ms!!!

  • lordstar

    I really think Nokia has a plan b now. Haha

  • JGrove303

    Great, a phone that gets the Red Ring of Death. I wouldn’t exactly be concerned about Microsoft’s own take of what a WP device should be. If MS had a reference design, Nokia would have already surpassed it. Hell, for all intents and purposes, the Lumia 800 was the reference design.

    Now, worse case scenario, and MS does try to punk Nokia, I’d bet Nokia has injected a bit more money into Jolla as a Partner. That whole debacle still feels like MeeGo and it’s devs where put into hiding from MS to expand and dwvelop the craft without the Harmattan half. Pure MeeGo, not a MeeGo instance like the N9 ran.

  • ms.nokia

    if a surface phone is released it would be low volume only, aimed at corporate clients.
    nokia is right to focus on the lumia brand, with its high hardware spec it could sell lumia phones with different os one day, a limited edition run made to work on different os,
    ms is scared of that.

  • Muerte
  • nn

    Well, shocker. Who would have thought MS will stab Nokia in the back, now repeatedly?

    I wonder if Elop is working on own smartphone OS too. But the notion that Lumia brand is OS agnostic and you can freely shuffle between OSes, which are making like 90 % of the product experience, without consumers noticing it, is really funny.

    Or perhaps he can explain to Ballmer that hedging your bets, keeping your options open and not making your company slave to another is grave mistake.

    • KeiZka

      Not all Galaxy devices are Androids, for example…

      • nn

        AFAIK all Samsung Galaxy phones are Android. But the problem lies somewhere else – if Samsung switched the Galaxy line to WP would people keep buying them? Or rather the sales would crash like a stone? Are people going to buy Lumia no matter what it’s running – Symbian, WP or Andoid?

        • KeiZka

          I admit I might be wrong here – there are so many different galaxy models out there that it’s almost impossible to keep tab of.

          Also, that’s a rather valid point you are making. Are people buying Galaxy devices because they are based on Android or because of the brand?

          I think it’s more of a brand right now. HTC has rather similarly specced device in One X compared to S3, yet S3 sells plenty more. Competition in Android market is quite cutthroat after all.

          • migo

            The S3 was advertised with features that were actually pretty nifty and useful. The One X, from what I’ve seen, hasn’t been.

            Samsung got that people don’t care that much about the specs. They like them if they get them, but it’s stuff like automatically placing a call when you select a name and hold the phone to your face, shutting off when you fall asleep, and the like that really makes it attractive.

            The kind of stuff that HTC got right for their 8X ad.

          • Jack

            I also would like to know the answer to this question.

            Samsung is doing the exact opposite of Nokia – start as an OEM for Google and/or Microsoft, and transition to a completely in-house OS (Tizen). It will be interesting to see how much of the Android customer base would move with Samsung.

            • jiipee

              If they have close to the same UX and the OS works, a lot.

  • Patata

    If true it would proof that Microsoft is still Microsoft.
    This might be a shock to all of those who thought that Elop is a geniius for binding Nokias future to that foolish acting company, but it would be no surprise for the rest who already knew a little more about MSFT and their way of business ;-)

  • jfigge

    Hmm… Let’s look at the evidence…

    1) Microsoft putting out their own tablet
    2) Microsoft putting out their own phone
    3) No tablet from Nokia
    4) Nokia selling off lots of assets
    5) Nokia reducing staffing levels

    This all points to Nokia being bought by Microsoft so that it’s Apple vs Microsoft all over again

    Just kidding, but what if it were true? I want the Surface tablet yet I’m loyal to Nokia and will wait and see what they have first. I want the Lumia 920 yet would be willing to look at a Microsoft phone). If the two merged then I’d no long be split and could get the best of both worlds.

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