Nokia Responds to Rumors of Discounting Prices to Help Boost Weak Sales

| December 28, 2012 | 121 Replies

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It has become somewhat of a hobby for some “technology” and news sites to misreport numbers, facts and statistics that involve Nokia to shed them in a bad light; the latest of which was the rumor that the discounted prices of the Lumia 920 ($39.99 on Amazon) and the 820 and other variants selling for free on contract are a desperate attempt of Nokia to boost weak sales (before that was BGR claiming that the report of 600,000 Lumias produced was from all of Nokia’s factories and NOT a single factory in China). This time Doug Dawson from Nokia stepped in and responded to the Wall Street Journal saying:

“pricing is always a carrier decision, but holiday season promotions are fairly standard at this time of year.” He noted that Samsung Electronics Co. phones are also being offered for free in some markets.

Basically not everything is a sign of the impending doom…

WSJ/Via

 

Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, my name's Ali- Currently a fifth (and final) year Dental Student from Chicago; studying in Jordan. I love all sorts of gadgets almost as much as I love my cookies! Be sure to follow my Twitter handle @AliQudsi and Subcribe to my Youtube for the latest videos - no pressure. Thanks.

Comments (121)

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  1. Joris Bos says:

    When will this stop? Why can’t people talk positivly about Nokia? I get so sick of this chatter. Nokia needs good press, it’s a great part of what people think about the company. They deserve so much better.

    • MOOking says:

      tell that to elop….cause it but them in the shitter

    • eeteet says:

      There is some people and companies (mostly in USA) who wants that Nokia is going to be destroyed and that is why US media tell so much lies and negative news about Nokia. They do everything to do harm to Nokia.

      • Noki says:

        yeah like dropping the prices on phones, or forcing nokia into a exclusive deal with Microsoft.

        me goes and gets my old trusted tinfoil hat works in 2 ways you know!

        • eeteet says:

          There is so many Apple share holders in USA and they try protect their investment with all possible ways.

          • eeteet says:

            Specially big investment banks.

            • eeteet says:

              I hope that every finnish buy at least few Nokia stocks so we can buy our great company back to Finland.

              • Noki says:

                you are aware that much of the key share holders of Nokia are Microsoft share holders as well??? Many speculate that as the real reason for the turn of events. (makes perfect sense) as much as I like to accuse Elops of being the culprit of all of this its fairly clear that the board decided this and brought Elop to execute it, only logical explanation for Elop to still be around.

                As far as it is known, e major stake holders in Nokia, investment funds with a large stake on microsoft, kinda forced nokia into this, they long wanted nokia to move to the US, other stake holders didn’t wanted that but given how bad things were geting (losing market share) with symbian they conceded but required Nokia development to stay in Finland.

                Now one of those invested funds apparently sold its position shortly after came on board, we don’t know exactly the extent of the secret deals that went being the curtains and even what we know is limited, and honestly i don’t like to put the tinfoil hat on, And stick with the verifiable facts, that are Elops absolute incompetence managing Nokia transition, the fact that WP sales came far far short of what was expected, an that nokia corned into into a position were only a wp sales miracle can save it.

    • RayRay says:

      No joke, it appears there are a lot of people who simply wants Nokia to fail. It also appears that no matter what good, or innovative contribution Nokia makes in the mobile space, there are some who will never be satisfied due to the business decision top management made in regards to what eco-system they would pursue.

      It’s just staggering to see the amount of animosity/negativity spewed by some of these tech sites and bloggers towards Nokia.

      It has been well over a year since the decision was made to shift course in the smartphone space. Why the bleep can’t some of the posters on even this very site can’t get pass it, or get over it by now. Life continues. Can someone hold a grudge for so darn long and for such trivial reason(s).

      As for me, yes, I loved Symbian. I tried S40 series but worked with Android for a good while. However, I am moving forward with Windows phone. That Simple!

      • GordonH says:

        “That Simple!”
        you forgot the /s.
        A lot of EU tech was destroyed, stabbed and out right killed to push another company’s ecosystem. Things will “simply” never be the same for many investors, developers, workers and consumers.

        • arts says:

          Like swipe right? The great American invention? ;)

          • Noki says:

            so outsourced work by Nokia is not Nokia possession? since wen a UX/UI as become tech?…but yeah Nokia did not designed the swipe UI internally.. that statement is as silly as (nokia cant use the n9 hardware design on lumias because it was created for meego)

            Nokia didn’t designed anything on WP and that didn’t make it suck any less, or sell any more…

            • arts says:

              Disagree.

              please get the hint. Since you said you are here to watch nokia get bankrupt, i have no intention of talking to facked up people like that.

              • Noki says:

                thanks for the insult??? and constructive criticism, was very valuable to the debate.

                • arts says:

                  Welcome. And please don’t let me stop you from continuing your quest to see Nokia bankcrupt like the good Nokia supporter you are. And seriously in the future, don’t bother replying to my stuff.

    • anon2 says:

      I really wouldn’t stress over this type of BS. 99% of the general population don’t read the Wall Street Journal, nor do they frequent tech sites like phone arena and the verge.
      Many times, the negative press is there to benefit Wall Street investors, nothing more

  2. Jiipee says:

    The bigger news here is that Nokia responded to rumours.

    The US sales prices are a joke in general as a basis for analysis.

  3. MOOking says:

    WHY DOES ELOP OR nokia always have to deflect or point fingers at their own doing….it’s like they don’t wanna take the blame for messing up and not sticking to what they have/had and killed it

  4. Noki says:

    I’m sure the discounted price is because they can’t keep up with the overwhelming demand, just like with the L800 and L900.

    • Janne says:

      More likely the discounted price is because Amazon Wireless wants to get more royalties from selling AT&T contracts – or AT&T wants to boost getting more contracts…

      I doubt it had *anything* to do with the sellability of Lumia 920 at this point. It is a drive for more AT&T accounts in general.

      • nn says:

        Except if there is not enough Lumias, they get nothing by slashing the price, the phones would be sold anyway and ATT would actually got more money.

        Cutting price of something that is in big shortage is economic nonsense. So either Elop and ATT are idiots, or the extraordinary demand in reality isn’t there. You choose.

        • Noki says:

          OMG you used your brain cells heheheheh:)

          Yeap its that simple, if the demand was so ginormous that you cant keep up with sales you don’t cut prices because it just cost you money with no return what so ever..

          If AT&T gives you more money for phone sold, you keep the money for yourself not pass it to the end consumer that is overwhelmingly buying the product….Unless…….its not!!!

          • twig says:

            Hello, hello. Sorry to spoil your party but the fact that WalMart, BestBuy, etc. are filled with cut prices on iPhones and Androids must be because of slow demand, correct? Your words.

            The fact is, and sorry to spoil the rumors for the analysts,etc. IS that retailers make their money on phones not by the phone sales but by the cut of the ATT contract.

            The real issue is the the analyst, news organizations, etc. all work for someone. Have any of you asked yourself what it would matter to them if Nokia sales are high and the phones really are better than android or apple? Why do they want just apple and android so much? Could it be because Apple and Android are already set up to harvest your data and phone calls and Nokia is not? The u.s. Congress just voted down email privacy legislation so your emails belong to…and your phone calls….that is while you are on a Apple or Android. Otherwise, why fight Nokia so much by parties who are supposed to be neutral?

          • Zipa says:

            You forget one thing. If Amazon would offer the phone on the exact same price as AT&T, what would be the incentive for the customer to buy it from Amazon over AT&T?

            I’m pretty sure that AT&T has a stronger “brick & mortar” precense than Amazon, and when buying online it isn’t really that much harder to type “att.com” than “amazon.com” into the address bar of your browser.

            And pretending that the demand for the Lumia 920 is not by far larger than the current supply is just, well, insane.

            • Noki says:

              “And pretending that the demand for the Lumia 920 is not by far larger than the current supply is just, well, insane.”

              O Men think about, if it it was real and since nokias wants the US market so much nokia would not be launching the L920 in new markets and diverge all the production to the sates…

              But of-course no logic will make sense around here. :)

              • Harangue says:

                ‘But of-course no logic will make sense around here.’

                That goes both ways ;)

              • Zipa says:

                “O Men think about, if it it was real”

                That’s where I stopped reading.

                Fact nr. 1: Nokia is producing as many Lumia 920s as it can.
                Fact nr. 2: Lumia 920s are sold out everywhere.

                You do the math, and try to figure out what’s real and what’s not.

                • Noki says:

                  “Fact nr. 2: Lumia 920s are sold out everywhere.”

                  You are really out of touch with the world, its as been reported here several times that there are plenty available, remember “the its sold out in Germany” news bit? several people reported here that it was a lie. Just check out ebay.co.de there are tons there… same as stores.

                  Some people have been complaining about the yellow version being hard to find.

                  • Janne says:

                    German online stores are quite unreliable in reporting stock levels, so personally I’d like to hear from people on the ground there. I had some Lumia orders in Germany that I cancelled after weeks of wait in vain.

                    In Finland you can get a Lumia 920 if you are lucky and run through a bunch of stores, as small amount of phones trickle in, yet most stores and online stores are reporting no stock and long queues still being filled (I’ve been following this quite a bit). Not to mention all the markets not yet getting the phone at all. I think the shortage is genuine.

                  • StefanP says:

                    As far as I can judge from the distance, availability in Germany is poor.
                    Online discounters (most have unknown delivery date):
                    http://www.guenstiger.de/Preisvergleich/Nokia/Lumia_920.html
                    Vodafone Germany (Available begin of January):
                    http://www.vodafone.de/privat/handys/red-smartphones.html

                    • Janne says:

                      Go to Amazon.de and there is only some very highly upmarked (700+ euros!?) availability of Lumia 920. On Ebay.de there are a few examples, with laughably high Sofort-Kaufen pricing. I mean these guys are asking in Germany for Lumia 920 far more than the official Nokia store in Helsinki, Finland… everyone knows Finland is the expensive place of these two and the official Nokia store the more expensive store here. :)

                      It doesn’t look like good availability to me. Although I’m sure the situation in Germany is similar to Finland, as stock trickles into stores, if you can pop into the right brick and mortar at the right time you can get a phone, but there isn’t nearly enough stock to most stores or to fill online demand.

        • Janne says:

          nn: Amazon wants to hook people into ordering from them to sell those contracts… The upfront price is an insignificant part of the overall equation. Nokia is getting paid no less for those devices either…

          • nn says:

            Sure. Unless Lumias are supply limited and in great shortages, in which case more people ordering from them is exactly the thing they won’t get as the surplus phones physically don’t exist.

            • Janne says:

              Unless they can get people to wait, instead of ordering from the competition… It is about hooking people to Amazon Wireless, not about selling Lumias per se.

              • nn says:

                Starting price war on product you don’t have is brilliant idea, no doubt about it. However, Amazon don’t seem to be that smart, they stopped offering the phone when they ran out of stock.

                • Janne says:

                  You’re saying the product has availability issues or do you think Amazon really lowered the price to get rid of some hard to move stock?

                  Look, who knows the exact reasons for these promotions dealers run. Maybe it is to get more people to their store and buy more at the same time. Maybe some manager has end-of-year targets to meet. Maybe they want to run a store-wide holiday sale.

                  I seriously doubt in this case it is about any difficulty in moving Lumia 920 stock.

      • RayRay says:

        The amazing thing this, it is a common practice in the U.S. to have these discounts/low prices at one point or another. End of year specials, or holiday sales are common amongst the carriers, namely AT&T, Sprint, Verizon and T-Mo.

        Other brands from other manufacturers are discounted here in the US all the time. The media make no issue about it. However, all eyes are on Nokia to ensure that they do not rise up. Thus, if they take a dunk with the doors closed, some people still won’t be happy.

        • Hypnopottamus says:

          BINGO! In the US, people have to realize that carriers and retailers can care less about selling the technology. What they are really trying to cell is the locked in contract. That’s where the money is. The phones only serve to attract one to the carrier.

      • sunnyvale says:

        Damn it Janne, I had to scroll down a lot to find your two cents on this. :)

  5. nn says:

    The little difference I see here is that Samsung isn’t trying to pretend there are gigantic shortages with stocks of new phones routinely cleared in few hours or even minutes. It makes absolutely no sense to keep cutting price of something you even aren’t able to manufacture in sufficient quantities.

    But then the whole Elop’s strategy makes no sense at all, so I guess it’s well in line with the general direction.

    • Peter says:

      Well, Lagdroid-troll, I wish to go back in time and teach your father to use a condom.

      • Frankie says:

        haha good response to that troll!

      • GordonH says:

        Protect Elop is what counts right. Forget other people’s thoughts!!!

        • Janne says:

          What the heck has Elop got to do with anything? Most expect him to leave next year in any case either through failure or because the transition/reorg is done and that was what he was hired to do. I’m rooting for Siilasmaa to take the crown.

          We’re Nokia fans. Is it so hard to understand we want them to do well and like to enjoy their products…

          • GordonH says:

            Janne again jumping in on the word Elop!!!
            Wrong reflex or something.

            • Janne says:

              No, it is the notion that we are Nokia fans are labelled as some sort of Elop defenders when clearly we are not. It is an ad hominem attack without merit these days. I doubt there are many Elop fans here after all the misses on his watch. Nokia defenders, maybe sometimes. Nokia fans, definitely.

              Let’s face it: Nokia burned under OPK and it has continued to burn under Elop. Like I said in a past message, the issue is larger than just the CEO though, there is/was much wrong in the company of Nokia once it got too big and convoluted to meet the more agile competition (Apple, Google, Samsung). We’ll see if the course now set will eventually show better results.

              The difference between us, of course, is that I wish them well. You clearly do not.

              • tom says:

                For all practical purpose, Elop has made Nokia worse. I am not saying OPK was not bad, he was definitely. Elop gets paid to lead Nokia. If he does worse than a robot would do, why is he the CEO?

                Senior management is absolutely responsible for taking ‘due care’ and that’s not the case with Elop. he is playing with fire.

    • Zipa says:

      Nokia is not the one cutting prices here…

    • Zipa says:

      “The little difference I see here is that Samsung isn’t trying to pretend there are gigantic shortages with stocks of new phones routinely cleared in few hours or even minutes.”

      Samsung are making a lot of their own chips, so no, they would not be as drastically impacted by the supply issues of Qualcomm and TSMC.

      “It makes absolutely no sense to keep cutting price of something you even aren’t able to manufacture in sufficient quantities.”

      Again, Nokia is not cutting prices on anything here.

      • nn says:

        You know, the argument holds even if Nokia isn’t the one cutting the price. Just replace “manufacture” with “get from manufacturer”.

        • Zipa says:

          Of course it does not. Are you trolling or just totally ignorant?

          Let me spell it out for you: Two retailers sell the same product that is in high demand. Retailer A has stores in every nook and cranny around the country plus an online store. Retailer Z has an online store and gets a decent cut from retailer A from every sale.

          Do you honestly think that it makes sense for retailer Z to sell the product for the same price as A?

          • nn says:

            Do you honestly think it makes sense to cut price if the retailer is able to sell all phones it has (and then more) for said price anyway?

            • Noki says:

              yes they do its a pointless discussion… worse part is all of this is a preparation to what it seams will be a pathetic Q4 results…and a subsequent “just wait for Q12013″that will be followed by a new Lumia and WP8.5 announcement, and the story will repeat. Just until that day that Nokia is no more

              I will reiterate my absolute minimum expectation for Lumia Q4 results 8 Million, (less than the 10 million Janne hoped for as minimum) that is on average 1 Million devices per terminal, its the biggest selling quarter in the year anything less than 8 Million is a rounding error to zero in xmas time.
              2 years ago Nokia was almost selling 30 million smart phones, and 1 year ago it sold 16? something…

              • Viipottaja says:

                I would guess its less than 8m Lumias in Q4. More like 6m.

                • Tero Mustalahti says:

                  Yeah, looks like it. Being as optimistic as possible, I suppose L620 could improve things when it becomes widely available, but a great success for the WP8 Lumia range is still long ways off.

              • Janne says:

                My 10M expectation was contingent on early Q4 wide launch of WP8 Lumia, which failed to happen. November launch missed October, many places availability only closer to December. So many markets delayed to Q1. Limited availability, expected cheap WP7 models delayed to late Q4/early Q1.

                10M won’t happen, not even 8M. Not with this availability of the new products. The old Lumia range won’t sell well while people wait. And yes, I do think the slow ramp-up of Lumia’s global availability is infuriating and one thing consistent through last year. Sucks big balls.

                • Noki says:

                  Think, I really do that the hole limited availability thing is not that big, and you guys are just clinging to hope that some how miraculously wp will start to sell. I believe that Nokia is just managing stocks so it gives this impression, and create a desirability halo around it, fact is WP phones sell really poorly the metro UI is a fail and not many genuinely want it.
                  See windows 8 and windows rt sales to prove my point

                  If nokia truly had such high demand it wwould have adapted factory lines , enter 24/7 full steam factory production, bought extra stock components from competitors, outsourced production to Mars what ever it would take to fulfill demand wen its fresh, in Q1 the Lumia 920 will be yesterdays gadget with all the new announcements, and having failed to do the initial sales that creates the positive wave, then sales only go down hill from here…this is last year all over again.

                  • Janne says:

                    I think it is a factor of two things and has been throughout Lumia’s year-long history:

                    - Slow ramp-up from launch to global (or near global) availability. With the original Lumia generation this meant that it was still launching in some markets in Q3/2012, somewhere in Q4/2012! One year after the generation began rolling into market. Again we can see similar issues with the WP8 generation, which is really unfortunate, with availability being pushed to Q1/2012 or very late Q4/2012 in many markets.

                    - The difficulty of selling a new ecosystem, when the established ones have such mindshare and customer lock-in. And I agree, also difficulty of selling a different user experience, because people tend to go with the familiar. Also, Lumia came first out in many of the hard markets for Nokia, western Europe and U.S. where Nokia has been less and less present lately. Many of Nokia’s better markets had to wait for Lumia a long, long time, by which time it was already and old product.

                    So, you have a little bit of both. Had Lumia been better globally available, it would have been able to take advantage of the demand there was in markets where it was not available or sufficiently available. This does not mean there would have been Samsung Galaxy S III levels of demand, but more could have definitely been sold with a faster ramp-up globally.

                    I do think it is a bit different with the Lumia 920 now, though. Lumia is now a more known brand, the ecosystem more mature. There is genuinely more demand, I think. Just how much, hard to tell because again the availability is limited to a few markets and even there the stock is limited.

                    Let’s hope the availability issues go away next year, clearly they didn’t go away by Q4/2012.

                    That said, we’ll still judge Lumia come Q4/2012 results.

                    • tom says:

                      “- The difficulty of selling a new ecosystem, when the established ones have such mindshare and customer lock-in.”

                      Well, when iphone came in, blackberry was a established brand. When Android came in, iPhone was a established brand. The list goes on.

                      WP simply isn’t good, most people do not like it. What does WP gives anyone that other established platform does not? Constantly flipping faces for no purpose or apparent reason?

                    • Janne says:

                      There was maybe an ecosystem lock-in with BB, but there was none with the largest global smartphone platform Symbian because it was a product made before mobile ecosystems mattered. It sold on Nokia brand, mostly in markets where devices were sold unlocked too, there was no lock-in of apps or in many places operators either. Hence BB started to hurt somewhat later than Symbian.

                      But both BB and Symbian were utterly uncompetitive in the new touch era ushered in by the iPhone and taken marvellously advantage of by Android. That was the main reason for their downfall. Let’s face it: Apple did really good with the iPhone user-experience and the only ones able to answer timely to that were Google. Nokia could have, had they elevated Maemo to front row, but they didn’t thanks to all the in-house squabbles and lack of proper leadership vision.

      • Placida says:

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  6. aleci15 says:

    I think they are prioritizing MORE to capture as much audience in the US as possible for the WP platform instead of actually having to profit from it. And having countries outside the US shoulder those losses with a very steep price.

    • JGrove303 says:

      That is a lot more likely. However, phones on contract in the State tend to be a lot less expensive versus, say, The Netherlands or Germany. We pay a lot more on our 2 year contracts over all, though less for data. And that contract price doesn’t go down once you go month to month and isn’t any less expensive if you go unlocked.

      Nokia is definitely getting profit on the devices.

      also, what no one has really mentioned, is that these Lumias launched late in the year, just as the last lineup did. Q2-Q3 is when the hot new mobiles hit in the US, the prime time for carriers to rake in the max profit and when the Latest SoCs are new. Q4 is late in the game and no one on this side of the pond is going to pay $200-300 upfront for SoCs that have been around for half a year.

  7. jimboireland says:

    Tomi the twat ahonen said the same it is just another failed dig at nokia,when the time of year suits him and the the other trolls.

    • Noki says:

      Its easy, first nokia launches a Lumia some news say its has huge sales and people love it and they cant sell more of it (some people go into hype mode say it only wp could have saved nokia and this proves that nokia ins ni the right path and that Tomi & co were troll ignorant and dumb)….then the numbers start to come in and reality is far far far different, Usually worse than the predictions of Tomi and Co, and Tomi comes and say “i told you so” its all occurring as i said it would.

      Tomi is a bit wild on some of his argumentation’s and border line liar on some occasions, but his predictions were the best by far out of any one out there.

      Some times I have the feeling some people would like to live in a parallel self infused reality, were this reality as no value and any one that points out what is truly going on should be deleted from the self infused VR.

      • Janne says:

        No… I think it is this bit that bugs many about Tomi:

        Tomi is a bit wild on some of his argumentation’s and border line liar on some occasions

        Keep it real and I’m plenty happy to listen to negative predictions on Nokia’s strategy as well – they have their place in the balanced discussion. Unfortunately many feel Tomi isn’t being balanced these days. So whatever merit on occasion he has, is being drowned out by what you yourself said…

        • Noki says:

          yeah he is an anti fan and sometimes believes stories that are not really there, but on the other side things have not been better, in fact they have been far worse, want me to remember all the lies being spread here and in nokia/windows marketing machine paid “independent” analysts?

          For every thing that tomi says that is less accurate he says 20 that are verifiable facts, starting with is sales predictions, that to me are the most important ones….

          • Janne says:

            I’d reverse those 1:20 odds, but your mileage may vary. :)

            • Noki says:

              lets do a competition you show one lie and I will show 20 verifiable truths?

              • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                I don’t know about if it’s 1:20 or 20:1 but Tomi is clearly fabricating numbers when he can badmouth Elop with those.

                One classic example is that 1,75 million N9′s Tomi has been promoting as a fact. There has been another examples, but that’s a good one because that was a number he was using to prove how MeeGo was to be a success.

                Because so many of his “analyses” are based on those fabricated numbers, most his conclusions can not be trusted. That’s why it takes only few fabricated numbers to invalidate so many of his posts.

                • Noki says:

                  The n9 sold more than that by now, at least 1 Million is verifiable from the track and protect app the announced 1 million registered users. (I have 3 n9′s counting with the n950 and never registered in that app) so estimating than 1 in 2 users actually signed up for it it would place the sales in the 2 M number…

                  prof.. https://twitter.com/TrackandProtect/status/201255630143631360

                  Apparently it is still selling as some say it was the number 2 best selling device in Nokia online china for December.

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                    You are talking about over 1 Million N9′s sold in total?

                    Tomi Ahonen was claiming that it sold 1,75 M in Q4 2011. He just fabricated that number.

                    • Noki says:

                      Check the link its an app you can use in the N9 that requires you to register there share your phone number and lots of other details that i din’t want 2.

                      but over 1 Milion other users did

                      The 1.75 M number was an inference from the numbers available at the time AFIK projected Symbian sales ASP and math. (insider information sharing) it was not 2 far from the truth, everybody I used to know at nokia told-me the same thing it sold way more than what they were expecting it 2, and much more than what some external analyst said it did.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Just tell me how that 1,75 Million was calculated? I never saw anyone explaining it. Only telling me that it must be true because the source is Tomi Ahonen or some guy claiming something that can’t be confirmed.

                      Yes, I have heard some people from Nokia claiming that 1,75 Million and their source was Tomi Ahonen. A man who fabricated the number so well that even some people from Nokia thought it was true.

                      However that doesn’t make it true.

                    • Noki says:

                      Actuality the number come from http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#disqus_thread

                      were they did some Math to reach a 1.5-2.0M ballpark number (check the link) Tomi just picked the average 1.75M. Its not that hard to repeat that math based on ASP from previous quarter and predicted Symbian sales and predicted L800 sales in Q4 based on “1 million up until this point (january)”

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      I checked the link but there was no proof concerning N9′s unit sales. There was lots of speculation.

                      Maybe you should copy-paste those lines you think are proving N9 sales?

                      There is a huge difference if you compare the ASP to previous quarter or the same quarter from previous year. Tomi has been failing on this quite often.

                  • Peter L says:

                    I’d love to hear a source for that “Nokia’s second best online selling device in China was N9.”

                    I smell some sort of weird Tomi-logic there.

                    • Noki says:

                      think it comes from taobao.com that apparently tracks retailers sales across china or something.
                      Tomi is living in hong kong so probably he reads Chinese calligraphy I dont so…. :)

                    • Peter L says:

                      Yep, weird Tomi-logic in action all right.

                      One retail channel. Very small sales numbers. Impact to the total Nokia sales in China – very small.

                      1. Lumia 800, 2858 units sold EVER
                      2. Lumia N9, 1548 units sold EVER

                      Using Tomi-Logic(TM) this translates to “Second best selling device from Nokia in China is N9″.

                      This is exactly the kind of shit why you should not listen what Tomi Ahonen says.

        • tom says:

          You may not like the arguments. So far Tomi’s predictions have been spot on, compared to any other big analysts(Gartner anyone?). I bet he has a better record than any prediction in this forum.

          Show me someone who has a better record at predicting Nokia/Lumia market share.

  8. aleci15 says:

    And I think that this is a sign of the Lumia being MORE unavailable everywhere else except the US.

  9. guerrahp says:

    Because weak sales needs to be remedied by sale promotions. Its not Nokia its WinPhone8. Believing in any other reason means you are in denial. Nokia with Windows is proving itself to be a bad move. Even future plans to make Windows RT is not promising. Just because you bought a WinPhone doesnt mean you bought a winner. Nokia or not.

  10. JGrove303 says:

    But I bought a Windows Phone that is a Nokia. And I’ll tell you what, I’m feeling both are a real Win. The Lumia 920 kicks ass, not one regret! I tell everyone about it. People see it and go WOW!!! I Ashoe it off and what it can do and gears are turning! “There’s something beside Android or an iPhone?” “Oh shit! That’s that phone from the commercial!” “Wow, that’s pretty! Look how the colors pop on that screen!” ” You took that video with this phone? God DAMN!”

    That’s the excitement coming from regular working Joes. People with SGSIIIs and iPhone5 have more of a response that suggest a bit of begrudging affirmation, at times remorse. I know plenty displeased with the 5 and one dude who had a 920, traded it back in for a SGSIII, then wish he hadn’t when it was too late. Yet another coworker I convinced to get a 920 went from the verge of trading it in to absolutely loving it, especially after the update.

    So ya, WP8 and Nokia, together, is a win.

    • Janne says:

      It all starts with a great product. I think the first Lumia generation brought us good products, the second generation finally great products. Lumia 920 truly is a great product. There is a learning curve to moving from iOS/Android to WP, just like there was when moving from non-touch to touch. But once you get there, I couldn’t dream of moving to something like iOS/Android.

      I think that learning curve shows with your friends/coworkers too, the fact that WP/Lumia do certain things differently might be intimidating at first, but once you see the brilliance the long-term user-experience is much more rewarding than the competition. (Unless you crave for absolute openness of Android, of course in that case Android will serve you better – but if you juts use it “as came from store” then WP is a very competitive choice.)

      Also, once Windows 8 becomes familiar with more and more people I expect the learning curve to become less and less. Once people learn the new paradigm (like mouse and windows all those years ago), they don’t want to go back to old icon-pushing and menu-wandering.

      • Noki says:

        Janne I’m allays suspicious about this first person “friend, relative, boss” stories. you should be 2.

        also on windows 8 thing, numbers are starting to come up and windows 8 adoption rate as been less than alf of windows vista. a few more months like this and I’m 100% sure the metro interface will be eradicated from a newly announced windows 9 or blue.

        Microsoft perfect storm is coming, in incredible but after all this years its really coming.

        • Janne says:

          I have no reason to trust or doubt such comments, it doesn’t really matter since they are such harmless stories. I am merely adding my own insight into the discussion, which by the way includes my own experiences of friends, relatives and coworkers iPhone/Android users getting the new Lumia. It was already happening with the first Lumia generation, people who had abandoned Nokia due to Symbian were coming back.

          I’m in Finland so people of course are more partial towards Nokia, but not if the product is bad. Symbian was bad for increasingly many, Lumia is the opposite and I feel that shows in people I know and people on the street. The amount of Lumias you see everywhere in Helsinki is staggering.

          • Noki says:

            “abandoned Nokia due to Symbian were coming back.”
            But fact remains that most symbian user left Nokia for android well after lumia devices were already in the market…Nokia still have a rather large of market share of the smartphone market wen it killed simbian wille introducing wp and people moved into a different brand altogether. heck they still preferred to buy symbinans instead of Lumias

            In Findland nokias prime market what you see is replacement of Symbian sales by Lumias with ios and android remaining mostly stagnant on top, and this is nokia home market. So huge nokia fans remain nokia fans and buy what ever nokia ships, wile android and ios users don’t move, your statcouter data shows that clearly.

            • Janne says:

              I do love the StatCounter data. :)

              http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-daily-20120101-20121230

              I think there is a clear decline trend for iPhone. Slow, sure, but still it is there. Lumia is an easy alternative for someone coming from iPhone because of certain similarities and the lackluster iPhone 5. I have indeed personally witnessed far more iPhone users make the switch to Lumia than Android users.

              Nokia is still hurting from reputation Symbian got it here. I still here people being suspicious of new Nokia’s, just over Christmas one elderly relative showed me her Nokia N8 and all the trouble with it and said “sure people want to buy Nokia in Finland, but not when their products are much worse than others”.

              Emerging markets, I’ll grant you, were probably a little different when it comes to their Symbian relationship. Symbian had many important features for them and Android was not yet cheap enough a while ago. It was not hurting Nokia that much yet, there, I guess. But it definitely was hurting Nokia’s image in the western world immensely, something that does make selling Lumia harder in those markets still today because of the banged up brand.

              • Janne says:

                BTW, I also think Android in Finland is still growing on the strength of its low-end. Many youngsters etc. get cheap Androids because limited Lumia options in that area. It is in the high-end that I think Lumia has managed to start capturing mindshare from iPhone and Android.

  11. Mark says:

    I don’t think Lumia sales will be awesome in Q4 due to a combination of supply constraints and the fact that they’re up against the iPhone and SGS amongst others, however I do expect them to turn a profit and for Nokia to move ahead of the Android also rans like Moto, LG and SE (LG will get a short term uptick for the Nexus 4 of course).

    • Janne says:

      I expect Q4 to be still a loss (at least on paper) due to some of the restructuring charges. Q1 guidance will be interesting, though.

      I’m just hoping the Lumia numbers show real promise… another lackluster quarter, no matter the constraints, would be a disaster.

      • Noki says:

        how you guys can expect that is beyond me?, let me just do a tiny bit of math here… double the sales of the old discounted lumia range (its xmas time and all) 2.9×2=5.8 M + 2.2 M from the new devices, just the L920 should sell bare minimum according to the low availability myth 0.6×3 M (if only one factory is producing them), so yeah 8M is the absolute minimum.

        • Janne says:

          I don’t think 8M is realistic considering Lumia’s historical growth curve for the first generation, without new disruptive products… and those are late. Had they not been so late, then 8-10M would have obviously been a healthy expectation.

          • Noki says:

            have you read my numbers???? really ??? I think specially for the new devices I been extremely conservative.

            Again just the L920 alone bare absolute minimum according to the high demand myth should sell 1.8 right? and the other new ones lets say the same. sooo something like 3.6 M of new wp8 powered Lumias.. I find it hard to belive that the old cheep lumia range can not sell more than in the previous quarter in xmas time… thst should put Lumia sales way above the 8 M line.

            8M should be the absolute minimum. unless you also believe that the high demand thing is mostly a marketing gimmick… Or the the old wp7 line as collapsed into zero land. cant the 2 of them…. and will brake one of the myths around here (viability of wp7 or the overwhelming demand for l920)

            • Janne says:

              I think the new models (including 505/510) had a chance at selling 8M, I don’t think the old models have much chance at selling more than they did in Q3, they are now old and their growth curve is known. It won’t magically change now, Christmas or not.

              But for the new models to have sold 8M they would have had to be well available, which they are not. I’m not convinced Nokia has even built very many millions of them due to component shortages.

              I’ll be wrong gladly. :)

              • Noki says:

                hey I said nothing about 8 Million of wp8 just overall Lumias.

                Component shortage is one thing, making a few million devices is another entirely 3-4 million is peanuts, for Qualcomm, and its on qualcomm best interest to promote wp over other OS (its their exclusive deal) so I’m sure qualcomm could find a few scraps to prioritize to nokia if need be. so i don’t really buy into that story at least in magnitude some make it apear.

                Xmas as allays had a significant boost effect to Nokia.

                Realy as much as i crunch the numbers I cant see anything less than 8 M as admissible target for Lumia sales.
                The absolute insult would be symbian still outselling it.

                • Janne says:

                  I still maintain no way will the first Lumia generation magically start selling more than in Q3. New products would but are not available sufficiently.

                  The 8M on my part was reference to my Q4 June expectation of 10M. 8M new products, 2M first generation ballparks.

                  • Noki says:

                    “2M first generation ballparks.” really ???
                    cmon that is pathetic are you saying that the factories producing the L920 are not ruining full steam? just the one we knew about was capable of the rather small number of 0.6 M per month but that still traslates into around 1.8 M L920
                    are you saying that the other devices only sold 0.2 M??? This is nonsense and expectation management so you guys can claim victory wen we see somthing like 7-8 Million in Q4. (number I’m almost sure it achieved).

                    As I say the math does not had up anything below 3.6 M in that area is pathetic unless you agree that the hole limited availability in face of demand is BS. (that I honestly think you secretly do, but still…) production capability is way above the pathetic 1.8 M per quarter.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Symbian was losing market share when Symbian^3 was launched. People are claiming that market share doesn’t matter and we should talk about unit sales.

                      So, if Nokia sells over 5M units of WP8, it’s an incredible success for them. Symbian^3 sold 5M units in Q4 2010.

                      Well, actually they don’t have to sell that many units to be successful but over 5M would be an incredible success.

                    • Noki says:

                      @Spede oli aliarvostettu yes 5 M wp8 would be good I agree, would not call it “incredible”, but overall good yes.
                      but people here are pointing to 2M???
                      My prediction is somthing like 3,6 M of WP8 as the minimum… I doubt nokia will publish that data but it should be easy to guess it via the ASP.

                    • tom says:

                      People here will do anything to defend WP and Elop. They will come up with any number of subjective arguments. Just that by any objective measurement, Elop absolutely killed Nokia; stock price, profitability/loss, market share, volume of smart phone.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      People are defending Elop? No, no, just the opposite.

                      People here are trying to claim that Nokia would have been fine without Elop. However Nokia was already collapsing before the strategy change.

                      Nokia’s market share was collapsing before Symbian was killed. Nokia’s ASP was collapsing YoY even when N8 was released.

                      Nokia was losing market share. Yes it really was. If market share doesn’t matter, then 5 Million WP8 phones sold in Q4 should be an amazing success.

                      Now if that success with 5 million is not the case, please explain me why we should think about market share now when it was irrelevant in Q4 2010?

                    • Janne says:

                      Noki:

                      I think you misunderstand.

                      “2M first generation ballparks.” really ???
                      cmon that is pathetic are you saying that the factories producing the L920 are not ruining full steam? just the one we knew about was capable of the rather small number of 0.6 M per month but that still traslates into around 1.8 M L920
                      are you saying that the other devices only sold 0.2 M??? This is nonsense and expectation management so you guys can claim victory wen we see somthing like 7-8 Million in Q4. (number I’m almost sure it achieved).

                      As I say the math does not had up anything below 3.6 M in that area is pathetic unless you agree that the hole limited availability in face of demand is BS. (that I honestly think you secretly do, but still…) production capability is way above the pathetic 1.8 M per quarter.

                      My June expectation for Q4 was for the first generation devices (800, 710, 900, 610) to sell a modest part of the “10M”, which I said would look like a healthy number, if there is good WP8 Lumia availability because I assumed most of that would come from the new devices. Considering that Q3 saw only the sales of less than 3 million first generation Lumias, I doubt those (800, 710, 900, 610) would sell significantly more in Q3 and might sell even less as markets wait for new models. I just don’t think it is realistic to expect any better performance from those old devices now when new ones are arriving.

                      So, the “2M ballpark” you quote above, was in reference to the first Lumia generation in which I include 800, 710, 900 and 610 WP 7.5 devices. Those might sell, say, 2M in Q4/2012 with the rest coming from second generation devices (WP8 + WP7.8 cheapos). Your expectations seem to be that thise old first generaion devices will magically start selling more than ever if Q4. I doubt it, although I’d be glad to be proven wrong. I think the past year is indicator that the first Lumia generation probably can’t reach much higher anymore. No magic-wand waving will change that, they are old products and were not competitive enough on the market and while price-cuts help, they are still old products – we know their trend.

                      Hence, the hopes of significantly better Q4 sales depend on mostly the disruption created by new Lumia model sales (WP8 devices and 505/510), which I do think are significantly more competitive and more importantly also new and thus hotter items. And the problem with these is, I don’t think they are available in big-enough quantities. Factories, I’m sure, are doing the best they can but the word on the street is Nokia is having trouble with a few key components of their WP8 range, hence the slow ramp-up. I’m not sure why 505/510 came out so late, probably because they were waiting for WP7.8 and/or the WP8 launch to get out of the way (I know 505 came out in some markets a bit before 7.8).

                      Availability of first generation Lumia devices (710, 800, 900, 610) is probably the best ever in Q4/2012, as will be their pricing. But they are the old range, new products just around the corner. I seriously can’t see them moving much more of those than they did in Q3 – this would only contribute, say 2-4 million of those. If the new models are as constrained as they seem to be, there may not be more than a million or few of them made for Q4/2012. Your 8M just seems impossible to me.

                      Again, I’d be most happy to be proven wrong. :)

                    • Janne says:

                      Two typos above:

                      I doubt those (800, 710, 900, 610) would sell significantly more in Q3 => meant Q4

                      Your 8M just seems impossible to me. => nearly impossible (theoretically possible in my ranges as well)

                    • Janne says:

                      Third typo:

                      I know 505 came out in some markets a bit before 7.8). => meant 510

                    • Janne says:

                      Noki:

                      Noki says:
                      December 29, 2012 at 5:06 pm

                      @Spede oli aliarvostettu yes 5 M wp8 would be good I agree, would not call it “incredible”, but overall good yes.
                      but people here are pointing to 2M???
                      My prediction is somthing like 3,6 M of WP8 as the minimum… I doubt nokia will publish that data but it should be easy to guess it via the ASP.

                      If that 2M prediction is reference to me, I must ask how on Earth did you take my “2M first generation” to mean that second generation Lumias would sell 2M? When clearly I discussed the FIRST (OLD!) generation…

                      That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the second generation was available on such limited numbers that 2M isn’t a joke prediction. But I don’t know what to predict there, because we don’t know how constrained the production is.

                    • Janne says:

                      tom:

                      People here will do anything to defend WP and Elop. They will come up with any number of subjective arguments. Just that by any objective measurement, Elop absolutely killed Nokia; stock price, profitability/loss, market share, volume of smart phone.

                      Is this really necessary or useful anymore? I think many of us agree with much of that, with the exception on how much we think Symbian and OPK are to blame where I see people differing a lot. I think the truth is both OPK and Elop do share a lot of blame, but the issue is MUCH larger at Nokia than just the name of the CEO. The issues and thus any solutions and problems extend far beyond those two guys.

                      What does bringing some CEO worship myth into this discussion contribute? We are Nokia fans. We want to see Nokia do well, many of us even like the new products – a lot. Some may not find the new Nokia products good for them and that is fine, but Nokia is what it is and it is where it is. I don’t see how such ad hominem distractions help at all our discussions.

                      Soon it will be two years since February 11th. Why not let it be and discuss where Nokia is today and where to take it from there. Yeah, I’m sad Nokia didn’t put Maemo in the forefront in 2006 and favoured their ill-adviced Symbian touch instead, but I’m over it. Can’t we just let the past be?

                      Irrespective of that past, on Q4/2012 results day we shall discuss can Nokia continue with the Lumia strategy. :)

                    • tom says:

                      @Janne,

                      “We are Nokia fans. We want to see Nokia do well”

                      Well, yes. I am a Nokia fan but I dislike Microsoft more, way more.

                      CEO is important. What Nokia needs is a competent CEO, someone who understands reality and has a vision. Elop does not understand risk management and he absolutely does not have a vision.

                      Nokia is dying because people like me moved away from Nokia when they went exclusively WP. Looking at past results, there seem to be lot of people like me who do not want WP anywhere near them.

  12. DesR85 says:

    With this kind of reporting, no wonder they were sued by Singapore’s former PM Lee Kuan Yew before for libel. :p

    Anyway, these ‘tech’ blogs must have something against Nokia and/or Microsoft in general when they frequently misreport figures and fan the flames of the 920 low-light photo controversy when it was announced. When it comes to the iPhone 5′s Scuffgate and the Note’s controversially insulting ad, it’s only posted once and very little noise was made over it.

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