290% growth for WP, fastest growing OS for 2012?

| January 2, 2013 | 137 Replies

image (1)

Surur from WMPU reports that Windows Phone is the “fastest growing” OS with 290% last year.

Whilst percentage growth does sound fantastic, we also want to see growth in shipment sales, particularly of the biggest and most important partner, Nokia.

It’s still baby steps as MS realigns, unifies and integrates its ecosystem whilst Nokia prepares for a new set of innovative devices.

I found a couple of interesting comments from that article, one that adresses some current faults at MS and why MS isn’t getting the traction they can, and a response as to the still very huge potential in everything working out (in time).

Source: wmpu

Cheers Manpreet Singh for thet ip!

 

Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com

Comments (137)

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  1. Patata says:

    From 0,27% to unbelievable 1,05%

    • CapitanSevilla says:

      LOL!

    • Anastasios-Antonios Toulkeridis says:

      you failed the maths class clearly. If they maintain a 290% growth their marketshare will become huge fast

      • Anastasios-Antonios Toulkeridis says:

        PS The values refer to internet traffic not marketshare

      • incognito says:

        So, you opened a shop and the first month you sold 10 items and the next month you sold 20 items – are we to assume that you’ll maintain that growth and within short two and a half years you’ll sell an item to every single person on the planet? The world is filled with homeless people who once assumed they can maintain their growth when they pass the threshold and enter the big numbers game and have bet all their possessions on that premise.

        `If they maintain…` is a big if. Nobody could maintain such growth past a certain limit, even if we are to take some dubious network statistics. The fact is that WP has been losing real market share for quite a while – i.e. it fails to grow at the industry’s pace. Assuming 290% growth for WP is borderline lunacy.

        • Creo says:

          Failing to grow at the industry’s pace. Sounds familiar.

          • Janne says:

            It didn’t matter then. Suddenly it matters now. ;)

            Go figure. Trolls.

            • Janne says:

              BTW, I think it matter is both cases – for Symbian and for Windows Phone. Absolutely WP must grow faster than the market to gain a sustainable position. That’s one thing we are watching come the Q4 results.

              • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                Market share matters.

                The best metrics would be share of the revenues in mobile phone sales and in software sales.

                While that data is not available, we can use unit sales but we should remember that selling 2 units with ASP of 150€ does not equal selling one unit with ASP of 450€.

                Tomi Ahonen seems to to easily forget this. So does many Nokia fans because it was not so nice to see that Nokia’s ASP was coming down YoY even in Q4 2010.

                • dansus says:

                  Right now they need numbers out the door, ASP is less important.

                  Last i heard, WP sales are down and Symbian sales are up.

                  • Noki says:

                    no point on feeding the troll he is not even an WP fan its just an apple iZealot having fun at the expense of self crazy rhetoric and Nokia fans.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      I see.

                      Because you can’t reply directly to me, you are going to reply to messages sent to me. Nice logic!

                      You seem to have some strange need to make me a fan of something. However I’m not a fan of any smartphone or smartphone manufacturer. Just get used to a thought that some people don’t need to do that.

                      Besides, it seems that people are starting to like WP. That’s something not happening lately with Symbian.

                • jiipee says:

                  Market share does not matter. One can reach relatively high market share by dumping prices. As a former price manager in a global company, this was the rule number two.

                  There is no correct financial or market measure that can be said is correct. Different measures for different purposes is one of they key principles in accounting. It depends a lot eg of the time-window, the company’s current status, strategy and your own relation to the company (worker, share-owner, hateboy whatever).

                  I would be mostly interested in share of margin. With high share of profit margin a company can fund their long-term investments such as R&D or repay capital to shareowners. (Nokia decided to do the latter and lost valuable capital). Apple tends to buy their R&D and Nokia to do it by themselves with the expection that they now outsourced a lot of the R&D to MS, who will also own the related patents.

                  In Nokia’s current position cash-flow is the most important measure. They dont get any money from market share, but from actual device sales, which need to be in relatively high level so that they can fund the large marketing budget and pay the minimum royalty payments.

                  You clearly read too much Tomi Ahonen’s blog posts. Try first to first learn constructive source critisism and then to balance what is true or not. I just browsed the latest post and I had to admit that referring Nokia’s own SEC report was good idea. Elop has 40 days to show results or someone more competent should be hired. Im ready to give him credit as great speaker and possibly motivator, but there seems to be a lot to learn for the strategy consultancy he is using.

                  By referring to one single measure and using it to match your own agenda, you are acting exactly like Tomi. Shame on you ;)
                  Btw. this was maybe the funniest sentence in Q3 2012 financial report in relation to your asp comment:
                  “On a sequential basis, the decline in our Smart Devices net sales in the third quarter 2012 was primarily due to lower Lumia and Symbian volumes. This was partially offset by higher Smart Devices ASPs, primarily due to higher Symbian ASPs”

                  Disclaimer: I would still today agree with Nokia CEO that outside OS should have been introduced in Nokia and with the limited insight on Symbian, it most probably was ok to be ditched – in a smart way.

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                    Are you really saying that collapsing market share was nothing to worry about? If it was something to worry about, it’s also something that matters.

                    I agree with market share being only one metric. The problem is that in Q4 2010 Nokia’s ASP and market share was dropping while they were gaining unit sales. They also had only a fraction of the profits. Apple surpassed Nokia’s profits long time before.

                    I read too much Tomi Ahonen because I think he makes up lies? Right.

                    I can’t possibly comment every measure in every post.

                    Btw. That would be funny if it wasn’t so true. Nokia started to lose unit sales right after the collapse of the ASP stopped in 2011.

                    If Elop can’t make it, then he should be replaced just like they had to replace OPK. No question about it.

                    • jiipee says:

                      The last comment I agree on. And I guess most of the others you are critisizing.

                      And I dont think that anyone disagress with what a mess Nokia was early 2011. You seem to think that everyone here thought Symbian was some sort of saviour and that it would have kept Nokia as the market leader. There are not many of those.

                      We could go on for ages about the market share and ASP debate. I wont continue before Q4 reporting, since I expect it to drop again. One aspect no-one has touched yet regarding the Nokia’s ASP has been, what is the trend of competitors’ and general ASP on smartphones and the product mix effect. If you compare Q4 2009 figure with Q4, are you really comparing the same market? I had a look on the ASPs after Q42009. It looks like Q4 2010 has been the highest since then. I dont get your logic, how the asp was sinking.

                      Too bad the startegy update was not done after Q1 so that we would have clear comparison base. The profit warning of Q2 tells that such drastic stop in sales was not visible in Q1. We will hear it only after the first books are out. I guess the NDAs last at least 3 years.

                      Regarding Tomi’s latest post and the SEC filing. If I was a US Nokia shareowner, I would question the content of the report. It is clear that Nokia management knew about WP8 and that it would EOL WP7. I didnt see any mention of it there.

                    • Viipottaja says:

                      Perhaps the most relevant and accurate numbers for Q1 2011 are Nokias _shipment_ numbers for it as most of the shipments were probably made or at least signed/booked before Feb 11.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Well, ASP dropped 16% in Q4 2010 YoY.

                      Q4 2009 was 186 and Q4 2010 was 156.
                      Q1 2010 was 155 and Q1 2011 was 147.

                      The drop on Q1 was only 5%.

                      Q2 2010 was 143 and Q2 2011 was 142.

                      I assume lots of people are claiming Elop for the collapse of the unit sales.

                  • Noki says:

                    +++1 “in a smart way.”
                    But it was in the worse way possible.

                    Most of us know symbian was dead, but nokia needed it to survive wile it tried to transition to something other than symbian.

                    kilning burning all bridges and jumping in to the small dead boat wp7 was, was not a good idea.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Nokia was most likely no longer able to lower the ASP in 2011. And that was probably the one of the reasons for the collapse of the unit sales.

                    • jiipee says:

                      They did lower them after Feb’11. I agree with the notion that Android was eating Nokia’s market share and even total volumes. And that Symbian was to a certain level uncompetitive (with my limited insight 808, E6, E7 seem to be prone to crashing, 700, 701 not). Still, the rapid decline was due to bad management resulting in cancellation of orders, rebates, lowering the stock at sales channel, aggressive pricing and bonuses from competitors. Any competent manager who has ever worked with physical technological products which have limited life-span would know it.

                      What most of the people analysing the figures have never taken into account. For that reason I trust no-one Q1 2011, who claims to know the actual results with or without Elop effect. I’ve experienced the same eventhough in different industry and know how the accounting goes.

              • Tom says:

                Same here. I would love to see Q4 results.

            • Noki says:

              You rarely see me dabbling about wp market share.I go for the meet the actual sales that are not there.
              Take this metric (YOY) and apply it to Lumia, 290% increase would mean that in best case scenario Q4 2012 would have only 3 million Lumias sold. Would you consider that good? reminding you that a year ago only 1 Lumia was for sale Versus the 8 Lumias now. I’m sure no mater what the YOY sales for Lumias will be far better than 290% and it needs to be more in the order 0ff 1000%-1200% to produce any significant number that can be seen as positive. (#notes that since the 1M sold Lumias in Q4 2011 was for more than one quarter my numbers above are slightly off to the worse better side)

              • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                Someone was even claiming Nokia as the market leader in smartphones back in 2010 while in reality Apple surpassed Nokia in smartphone revenues already in 2009.

                • Noki says:

                  Twisting arguments.

                  Oranges are better than apples because lemons are more round than carrots.
                  If that sounds silly, its because it is.

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                    Nokia was no longer 1. in smartphone revenues in 2009. I wonder when Nokia was surpassed in smartphone profits?

                    All that is a road to destruction. Somehow Nokia fans disagree.

                    • Noki says:

                      I will do what everybody else around here seams to do in regards to you.

                      Ignore you…

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      There will be random people coming to read this blog at a later time. It’s great to have them appropriately informed.

                    • jiipee says:

                      Our local kiosk was doubling their sales a year ago. That was a path to destruction to Nokia.

        • migo says:

          Obviously the percentage won’t hold, but the amount could very well do so. So one month you sell 10 items, the next, 20, the next 30, then 40, and so on. By the end of the year you’re up to 120 items per month, and 780 for that year. By the second year you’re selling 240 items per month, and 2,220 for the year, which is a 185% increase year over year, with only a monthly increase of 10.

          The first month it’s a 100% increase, the second month it’s a 50% increase, the third month it’s a 33% increase, by the end of the year it’s only a 9% monthly increase, and by the end of the second year it’s a 4% monthly increase.

          The same growth rate that produced 290% this year can be assumed to continue for quite some time until smartphone penetration is at 100%.

          • jiipee says:

            Is it fast enough to Nokia to survive as an independent company/smartphone manufacturer when at the same time Symbian et al will reach zero? That is the question. I think they might barely survive, if they are finally able to ship volumes.

  2. StefanP says:

    This does not tell much. It’s so easy to have 100% growth if your market share increases from 0.01% to 0.02%! But of course there is growth, and it seems to accelerate. But let’s be realistic, the absolute change of market share is much more interesting.

    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

      Really?

      When Symbian started to lose market share, it was said that market share is insignificant.

      Maybe you have double standards for Symbian and WP?

      • yasu says:

        @Spede oli aliarvostettu

        Really?

        When Symbian started to lose market share, it was said that market share is insignificant.

        It was?

        Maybe you have double standards for Symbian and WP?

        Did StephanP said that market share is insignificant?

        • yasu says:

          yasu said:

          Did StephanP said that market share is insignificant?

          Should read “Did StefanP said that market share is insignificant?”

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

          Just try to decide if the market share is important or if it’s not.

          • yasu says:

            @Spede oli aliarvostettu

            Just try to decide if the market share is important or if it’s not.

            What has it got to do with the questions below for which you didn’t provide an answer, as I suspected you would:

            Was market share deemed insignificant?

            Did StefanP made such a claim?

            Of course, you know that if you answer by yes, you’ll have to provide evidence to back up your answer, or you are just posting stuff to stir things up.

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

              I don’t remember you providing answers whenever I needed one. So, why should I provide answers to you?

              Double standards, eh?

              Anyway, Symbian was losing market share.

              • incognito says:

                And what does Symbian has to do with anything? How does Symbian losing market share relates to anything in this article or the StefanP’s comment? Nobody mentioned it before you stepped in to diss a perfectly valid point that StefanP made.

                Even our old friend DSB was less trollish than you, and that says a lot.

                • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                  Sorry, I didn’t understand you don’t remember it any longer.

                  Nokia dumped Symbian and started pushing WP.

                  • incognito says:

                    So, we are running in circles now? What does this article, or StefanP’s comment have to do with Symbian whatsoever?

                    Yes, Nokia sacked Symbian and jumped on the WP bandwagon, but what does Symbian have to do, and how is it relevant with the legitimate comment/concern that StefanP has made? Or are you just assuming that he’s a Symbian lover and you just wanted to troll his comment? And even if he is, Symbian’s poor performance in the past is no way a justification for WP’s poor performance in the present.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      The problem is that Nokia has been running in circles.

                      Nokia was losing with Symbian and they have been losing with WP7. It will be interesting to see if they will lose with the WP8.

                    • jiipee says:

                      incognito, you are clearly wrong. Symbian was losing marketshare and APS was going down. And Tomi Ahonen is making lies! You are all such a fanboys/sheeps!

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Nice.

                • Deep Space Bar says:

                  don’t pull me in to your bullshit vortex..keep me out of your convo unless i’m apart of it

              • yasu says:

                Spede oli aliarvostettu said:

                I don’t remember you providing answers whenever I needed one.

                I did repeatedly, you OTOH… For those interested, evidence can be found here: http://mynokiablog.com/2012/12/16/bbc-life-beyond-nokia-in-finland-start-up-boom/

                I answered your questions, you repeatedly tried to dodge mine, like you are doing here.

                So, why should I provide answers to you?

                Double standards, eh?

                From your part, yes.

                Anyway, Symbian was losing market share.

                Thanks for admitting that you’re just posting shit to stir things up and that you have no point.

              • sridhar says:

                yes symbian is losing market because no more symbian handsets are coming thats y….and its not like symbian losing share

          • StefanP says:

            Exactly, MARKET SHARE. The figures above do not really reflect the change in market share, in fact they are misleading. Talking about market share change, we have to relate the changed share to the overall market, not our own share!

      • incognito says:

        1) Nobody in his right mind ever said that market share is insignificant. Well, nobody except Nokia themselves when they started to lose it aggressively to iOS and Android, but we see where that thinking got them… Even while Nokia was publicly touting that they are not concerned about losing the market share, they’ve sacked their previous CEO precisely because of that – all other important stats (sales, revenues, profits, ASP…) in 2010 were on the up trajectory, but the market share was sill dropping. That’s why Elop, thank-your-favorite-deity, won’t be a CEO of Nokia in 2014 if Nokia survives that long.

        2) Ironically, Symbian had a bigger growth in real market share, not some limited bogus net statistics, than iOS in 2010, yet it was sacked as uncompetitive. It still beats the WP, tho, two years after being EOLed and devices with it declared publicly as DOA by their own maker.

        3) If somebody is saying that market share is not significant, it would be the WP fanboys and shills in the past 2 years, touting buzzwords like ecosystem and vertical integration forgetting that those two mean diddly squat without significant market share. Then again, they were touting (and still are to some extent) that number of apps is also insignificant when compared to iOS or Android, but they will gladly pull the number when dissing Symbian, BBOS, Maemo/MeeGo….

        4) Dubious network statistics are not a representation of a real market share. Not even by a long shot. WP has been losing real market share despite all the freebies Microsoft gave away to pretty much anyone who wanted.

        5) Statistics can paint whatever you want – i.e. last month a web site had 10 visitors using IE, 10000 visitors using Firefox and 15000 visitors using Chrome; this month there were 30 visitors using IE, 8000 visitors using Firefox and 10000 visitors using Chrome – are we to assume that MoM IE had an incredible 325% growth, Firefox modest 10% growth and Chrome dropped 8%? When looking at the percentiles you’d say that a bright future awaits IE, but when you look at the real numbers you see that IE is utterly insignificant and that only real loss here was the web site which lost 28% of its visits.

        • Peter L says:

          Your point 2. is a complete lie. 2010 Symbian lost marketshare like nothing else.

          • incognito says:

            Mea culpa, growth was in unit sales (higher than Apple), not a real market share, but since Symbian was starting from a higher position it couldn’t match the pace of the industry. iOS, tho, had quite modest growth in 2010 as well, a measly 2%. Have Apple had Nokia’s starting position with the unit sales stats of 2010, they’d lost significantly higher percent of the market share.

            Still, Symbian to this day, against all odds, kicks WP’s butt, no way around that.

          • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

            One key element of this religion is to forget or downplay the loss of market share in Q3 2010 and Q4 2010.

        • Janne says:

          incognito:

          To use generalizations like you do above:

          1) Nobody in his right mind ever said that market share is insignificant.

          Many Symbian fans/trolls here say that and merely look at the number of devices shipped.

          Even while Nokia was publicly touting that they are not concerned about losing the market share, they’ve sacked their previous CEO precisely because of that – all other important stats (sales, revenues, profits, ASP…) in 2010 were on the up trajectory, but the market share was sill dropping.

          Finally some sane talk from your corner of the proverbial ring.

          • yasu says:

            Janne said:

            Many Symbian fans/trolls here say that and merely look at the number of devices shipped.

            Maybe you should take those persons to the task, instead of throwing blanket accusations?

            Interesting that you are using the word “troll” after your appeal to Nokia fans to stop hating on each other.

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

              Troll is not a word representing hate.

              Do you even remember what company was developing Qt in the old days?

            • Janne says:

              yasu:

              Like I said, I merely used incognito’s generalization as an example – formulated it the same as him. Maybe you’ll want to correct incognito, unless you have a double standard. ;)

              3) If somebody is saying that market share is not significant, it would be the WP fanboys and shills in the past 2 years, touting buzzwords like ecosystem and vertical integration forgetting that those two mean diddly squat without significant market share.

              • yasu says:

                Janne said:

                Like I said, I merely used incognito’s generalization as an example – formulated it the same as him. Maybe you’ll want to correct incognito, unless you have a double standard.

                I don’t recall arguing against incognito. You can correct him if you feel like it.

                • arts says:

                  I think he was. And you are pointessly interrupting him.

                • Janne says:

                  yasu: Of course you are not arguing against incognito. There’s the double standard. :)

                  And yes, arts is right, I was correcting incognito in a sarcastic manner.

                  I started with:

                  To use generalizations like you do above:

                  I thought it was self-explanatory, clearly not.

                  As for the whole debate, so not worthy any of our time. We’ll see how WP fares, so far – not so good.

                  • yasu says:

                    yasu: Of course you are not arguing against incognito. There’s the double standard.

                    I’m not here to make your arguments against whomever.

                    You are the one debating him, feel free to correct him.

                    (…)I thought it was self-explanatory, clearly not.

                    My mistake then.

                    As for the whole debate, so not worthy any of our time. We’ll see how WP fares, so far – not so good.

                    On that we agree. I said nothing about it, good, bad or in between.

                    • Janne says:

                      Fair enough on the other part.

                      One comment:

                      I’m not here to make your arguments against whomever.

                      I thought you or I for that matter would be here to make arguments for and against issues, not against people. If you truly have an issue with unfair generalizations/labels (which I think you have made a trend of lately), incognito seems to be throwing around quite a bit of them.

                      I don’t think such generalizations help anyone – and especially they don’t help discussing the issues.

                      incognito:

                      If somebody is saying that market share is not significant, it would be the WP fanboys and shills in the past 2 years,

                      Not helpful.

          • incognito says:

            I never considered trolls or fanboys to be in their right mind, anyway. Trolls aside, being a fanboy implies a huge, unhealthy bias towards the object of your admiration, and that ain’t the right state of mind. Nokia was losing market share for years, no way around that – yes, the decline was slowing down in 2010 (when you take in account the market growth) but one can attribute that to getting to the smaller number position as well, and OPK was sacked rightly because of that. The bad thing is that they jumped from an old beaten horse to a three legged donkey, but that’s a whole other story.

            Market share ain’t the only important thing, of course, but dismissing it as irrelevant is one of the key factors Nokia got in the mess they are in now – they watched their market share decline for far too long before acting on it – and when they finally acted on it, they used all the wrong moves they could. Market share is very important for the things like developer support, word-of-mouth advertising, perceived desirability, future growth/ability to sustain your position in a rapidly growing market… Yes, it doesn’t bring actual money (case in point, ARM is prevalent mobile architecture, yet ARM Holdings is not some super-rich company and most companies which use their architecture make more money than they do) but if you want to remain relevant on the market which is growing, you can’t do that without a significant market share. Anybody who argues that market share is insignificant barely knows anything about business, especially business in a rapid-growth industry.

          • Noki says:

            No Janne no one said that market share is insignificant, that’s the reason most people agreed with replacing the CEO.
            Market share is a second degree measure of how well you are doing…So its was obvious Nokia was in trouble, I can even expand on other items were Nokia was having problems, ASP (this one more important IMO), Public perception, profits. etc etc etc.

            But after the new CEO put on practice his “fix”, we got far far far far worse results were nokia plunged in every single metric.
            You rarely see any one saying that nokia was doing great and without problems. What you do see is people saying that what ELOP did was the worse management in Mobile history, managing to turn the #1 smart-phone maker in to #10. Elop did not stooped the problems it deeply accelerated them.

            I see a new trend here in argumentation here, were some false statements are placed on the other side and then rebated for being false.

            • Janne says:

              I still stand by my opinion that it actually is a fairly large trend in the anti-Elop argument (not yours particularly of course) that Symbian was doing just fine in Q4/2010. I’m so NOT agreeing with that.

              That said, Elop has failed plenty since then too. That is clearly obvious, two examples being failed Symbian transition and failure to win meaningful market with WP7 Lumias. We’ll see if he can turn the thing around with the WP8 products.

              • Tom says:

                Read Tomi’s post today. It’s brilliant. I do not agree with all his ramblings but it’s all straight copy/paste from Nokia’s sec filing. In any case, he has to most accurate forecast for WP so far, way better than paid anylyst houses.

                • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                  What does it mean that he has succeeded with WP forecasts?

                  Does it make Tomi any better with forecasting Q4 2012? Really?

                  Very few people seem to be questioning his forecasts for Q4 2012 or beyond.

                  • Tom says:

                    You like it or not, Tomi’s forecast has been spot on fro WP/Nokia. Where is Gartner’s 20% market share for WP and WP is suppose to be bigger than iOS. Even balmer isn’t that delusional any more.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      He has been if you don’t count the initial forecasts made in early 2011.

                      The question is, if he is going to be correct about Q4 2012. I doubt that.

                      Most people seem to think that his forecast for Q4 2012 must be a correct one because he has been right in past.

                    • jiipee says:

                      Gartner was probably among the consulting houses giving advice and data for Nokia’s strategy work.

                      Tomi made better guess than the analyst houses. It does not make him great at it.

                    • Tom says:

                      @jiipee

                      It depends on how you look at it. If there are 5 person competing, there is one who is first. It is possible that person is just the best of worst bunch. Show me someone else who has a better prediction? None of the big analyst houses definitely.

                      btw, when Nokia unveiled WP strategy, there are people who thought it’s a dumb idea, with valid reason. They even pointed out what could go wrong and is highly likely. Read Asymco/Horace Dedieu post. He does not follow Nokia closely but commented on the strategy, and everyone of them have come true.

                    • tom says:

                      http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/12/24/merry-christmas-tomiahonen/

                      That’s from one of the favourite sources cited around here. Take a look.

                    • Janne says:

                      What is great about Dominies Communicate is that he does this. When Tomi gets it right, the says so. And then there’s the rest of the site pointing out where Tomi didn’t get it right, of course. ;) And there’s a lot of that… A real discussion starts with acknowledging the merits of others, not trying to twist everything into an agenda like some do…

                      But we’ll know soon enough, here is Tomi Ahonen’s prediction for Q4 Lumia sales:

                      Lumia Q4 2012 sales prediction: 2.5M (December 24th, 2012, outdates previous) [6]

                • Janne says:

                  Tom:

                  Read Tomi’s post today. It’s brilliant. I do not agree with all his ramblings but it’s all straight copy/paste from Nokia’s sec filing. In any case, he has to most accurate forecast for WP so far, way better than paid anylyst houses.

                  Here is Dominies Communicate refuting Tomi’s position that Feburary 11th is the cause of the crash at Nokia and offering an alternate view on the numbers. Do read it:

                  http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/elop-effect-did-not-crash-nokia-yes-this-is-true/

                  http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/closing-on-elop-effect/

                  Anonymous Ex-Nokian makes very compelling points.

                  That said, I do personally believe February 11th hurt a lot of things (including sales) and was a mistake, but I know Tomi and many others here feel Symbian was just fine in Q4/2012 and I can’t agree with that. Cheap Android was homing in on the kill and Symbian^3 was not cutting the mustard, which is somethin too many people still fail to acknowledge.

                  • Tom says:

                    I don’t agree with Symbian was fine at all. They should have pushed Meemo/Meego. There is no future in being MS’s bitch. If you like, you can read long list of previous MS partners and what happened to them. There is a list of them in Asymco. I believe in History and it teaches a thing or two. MS has never been a good partnet to anyone and has a history of backstabbing their partners.

          • kimbo says:

            Yesterday Janne u were sayin Nokia fans should be united , but if u like Symbian than your a troll get the f*** outta here with that b***s***

            MODERATED COMMENT: PLEASE KEEP IT PG

            • Janne says:

              Yeah, maybe the trolls comment was uncalled for. But I am not the one creating or instigating these threads. I hardly take any part in them these days. I am just feeling the blues because of them or something.

              I do sincerely wish we’d just get along and have a united community, discussing of course the good and bad at Nokia, and our opinions, but not so divided that one part of Nokia fanbase is hating the other depending on what part of Nokia they have picked as their own.

              But when day 2 of 2013 was like this, I’m feeling pessimistic about day 3.

              Still, I’ll try to do better and hope others will too. Any followers?

    • Anastasios-Antonios Toulkeridis says:

      the sign is positive. Unlike Bada for example (their marketshare is also low but they are falling). So Surur is right, it is very good news

    • Ajit says:

      True,

      2011, MS was selling handful of WP phones, in 2012 it was little more than handful…

  3. Sandman says:

    I wonder how many people are going to return their device(s)? I just got a Lumia920. I love it, but the important apps are not there! Also, IE is slow and horrible. I can’t even view videos from websites like I could on my Android/iPhone. Is it IE or the websites??????
    I have a week left before my 2 week return policy expires. I don’t know if I should keep this or wait for the new Blackberry Z10.

  4. Alvester says:

    This doesn’t sound good. Nokia to block unauthorised access to firmware images:

    http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/flow/item/16533_Nokia_to_block_unauthorised_ac.php

    • dss says:

      Microsoft runs the show now… and they are not happy about navifirm.. so its got to go.

      • Harangue says:

        Ha, chuckled a little at that one. The problem probably lies in the increase of flashed devices because the newer FW’s add things people want or need.

        Now, you can argue that it was the same in the Symbian days but I beg to differ. In the Symbian days much was done via the Custom Firmware scene that added a whole load more than what any normal Nokia FW would ever do. Besides that a Symbian CFW was easier to make and come by than a CFW for WP if you can even get one for WP8.

        Besides all that, there ae quite few people trying flashing without knowing what they are doing or what the consequences can be thus bricking devices and blaming Nokia for it. I guess that is something they want to prevent. I’m actually amazed that NaviFirm was open for as long as it has. It is basically somewhat like pirating SW, whether it is Symbian, MeeGo, WP or anything else.

      • migo says:

        This has been happening for years. First you could root with HelloCarbide, then it took HelloOx, then HelloOx 2, and finally there was nothing that could be done. This isn’t new to Microsoft. Nokia started it years ago with Symbian Signed.

    • Ajit says:

      Nokia’s showing signs of Microsoftism…

      • Anastasios-Antonios Toulkeridis says:

        yeap, get used to it troll

      • StefanP says:

        Which is close to Appleism. But a new player will enter the market this year.

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

          Yes, Apple is called religion because some people like to use products manufactured by Apple.

          Now people hate it when someone questions the success of Jolla. It should be almost unquestioned.

          • StefanP says:

            Raising certain WP issues, one gets easily attacked on some sites. There are similarities between Apple and WP, although MS dares a grain more openness. As a Jolla fan (and long time Nokia user), I have no problem if someone questions Jolla’s success. Question marks are justified. There is a different culture around Jolla. I think they will satisfy a niche market (at least for some time). But this niche is big enough for a profitable business.

            • Noki says:

              think this guys live in a parallel universe, most comments so far about jolla were in the line of “interesting, hope they do well, needs improvements, prefer harmatan” and this comments by the “fan’s”…

              Its a self sustained line of argumentation were you state a absurd argument and then go on on rebating it.

              • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                Maybe you forgot all those earlier comments telling how people were going to buy “Jolla or BB10/whatever” for their next phone after their current Nokia phone? Never saw one of those?

                Less and less people are saying the same. Maybe the Jolla UI was a disappointment.

                • Noki says:

                  And you do it again you state an argument only you area making. Next you will rebate that argument and talk to yourself.
                  I can tell you for myself that yes I will buy the Z10 as soon as I can get one, and will probably replace my N950 with a Jolla as my geek toy.
                  What others will do I have no idea?

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                    Sure, you never saw one of those.

                    Wasn’t you supposed to stop replying to me since you were unable to argue even the basic claims you made about N9 and native applications for BB10?

                    • Noki says:

                      I stooped replying to you on that argument because you are not interested in having an argumentation and you are so bluntly ignorant on the mater that it’s pointless to have an argumentation with you, and I was obviously just “feeding the troll”.

                      Now I dare you to not have an answer to this comment. that does not follow your line of argumentation. Aka some side argument that as nothing to do with the argumentation line and makes it look like you won…

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      Maybe you didn’t get it?

                      This is not about winning. You should sit down and make a reality check if you think that talking and chatting is about winning.

                      I’m very interested about hearing explanations or arguments for certain events of matters.

                      The 1,75M sales for N9 in Q4 2011 is a classic example. I’ve seen many people defending that number but never anyone really explaining it. You posted a link to some forum claiming that the math is there. Never bothered to explain what that math was and where it actually is.

                      Really, this is not about winning. I don’t understand why you even suggest it would be.

                    • Noki says:

                      You are a joke…
                      So you made no effort reading the links I posted you 2. and now want me to do that effort for yourself?

                      The same numbers were repeated here in MNB and I honestly don’t remember the full numbers, but if you are so interested you should read the entire reasoning around that estimation.

                      IF I’m not mistaken it was based on a stabilization prospect of the symbian (based on the asp) sales – Lumia reported sales of around 800.000 extimatif (over 1 Million up until today, January) = the 1.5-2 Milion N9′s (to make up for the difference) I don’t remember the exact numbers any way the error if there is one there probably comes from the extrapolation that symbian sales remained stagnant from Q3 to Q4.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      You posted a link with over 180 comments and the answer is somewhere on the comments?

                      http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#disqus_thread

                      I was reading huge amounts of those comments and failed to find any real proof about N9 selling 1,75M in Q4 2011.

                      So you make some claims and when asked about explanation you just tell that someone probably explained it somewhere.

                      That’s actually a very important number if it’s true. Somehow it seems to be extremely difficult to get anyone to explain it.

                      It seems that no one can really explain how 1,75M would be possible.

                • dansus says:

                  A BB10 phone is high on my list for next phone, maybe a Jolla too.

                  One things for sure, it wont be a WP based Nokia.

              • Tom says:

                I looked at the video. I think they need to reduce complexity and make it look cleaner. It needs work.

                • Noki says:

                  yeah most of the fans had relatively rational responses, exited for them, hoping for the best, but also seeing lots of room for improvement.

                  • Tom says:

                    From what I have seen, BB10 looks better to me. Hopefully Jolla can polish in mean time. Their advantage is they will license the OS and hopefully it will run on low end hardware, kind of migration path for Asha phones. Linux developers maybe interested to develop/port apps. I hope they focus on emerging market and not try to take on IOS/Android head on, kind of go sideways and grow from there.

    • burningIdea says:

      Seriously?! It’s like trying to block out a dying apple farm to prevent people from enjoying the last fruits: totally pointless and stupid. Is symbian really that much of a threat to WP for such extreme actions?

      • ZiPA says:

        Woot? That’s a tool for the Nokia Care centers. Why it has been publicly accessible for all these years is totally beyond comprehension, not to mention an immense security risk.

  5. Viipottaja says:

    Oh boy. Any one indicator is just one indicator. You have to look at many of them to get a more nuanced and accurate picture. Yes, WP grew dramatically in 2012 – but in absolutely terms it is still almost just a small blip in the data.

    And probably by any measure WP is still a very small player – fortunately for WP, it is at least growing and maybe at a fairly good rate right now. Nokia (overall) by some measures is a big player but not doing great financially. However, Nokia too seems to be moving in the right direction.

    So Happier New Year to both WP and Nokia!

  6. stylinred says:

    What’s actually impressive is Androids growth!

  7. Mark says:

    I love topics like this because all the trolls come out to cry.

    Boo hoo trolls and haters! :)

    Anyway, small steps but positive news.

    • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

      Yes.

      Nokia is a religion for some people.

      It’s actually incredible how offended some people are when the old tales are questioned.

      Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!

      • yasu says:

        Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

        Yes.

        Nokia is a religion for some people.

        And one can say that this particular belief seems to be a religion for you. Whoop-de-doo.

        It’s actually incredible how offended some people are when the old tales are questioned.

        You seem quite offended yourself when your own “old tales” are questionned, and have to resort to dismiss them as religious zealots.

        Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!

        A debate can definitely be won.

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

          A debate or conversation?

          There is a difference, you know?

          • yasu says:

            Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

            A debate or conversation?

            A debate.

            There is a difference, you know?

            I believe I do.

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

              Just to refresh your memory.

              “Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!”

              • yasu says:

                Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                Just to refresh your memory.

                “Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!”

                Conversations are taking place. I see heated debate, sometimes complete with name calling and ad hominem attacks.

                • yasu says:

                  Should read:

                  Conversations are taking place? I see heated debate, sometimes complete with name calling and ad hominem attacks.

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                    I was talking about a conversation.

                    “Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!”

                    • yasu says:

                      Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

                      I was talking about a conversation.

                      “Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation. That’s just incredible!”

                      I thought you were talking of things going around here. My mistake. Carry on.

        • Noki says:

          “Some people even think that someone can “win” a conversation.”
          he is talking a about me, and what I was saying is that he as a problem with not having the last word, I guessed he needs to feel like he won the argumentative debate conversation what ever, so he allays has the last word, (as you will see after this comment).
          It was mostly a pseudo psychoanalytical pun on the motives for his Beauvoir from me.

          But he then moved on in to re-framing and completely reversing it the argument into a something silly like wining conversations and using it in the manner you see above.

          My advice do not feed the troll. Ignore :)

          • Spede oli aliarvostettu says:

            You really like to talk to me without actually having to talk to me, don’t you?

            And no, everything is not about you.

            • Noki says:

              @yasu see I told you he needs the last word ehheheheh. I’m now wondering if it was not for me hum…. Guess it was just a random pointless argument then.

              (bets on last word?) ;)

  8. Goc says:

    290% sounds impressive but when you look at reality, you can see that it means pretty much nothing, 0.5 to 1.5 or something of the sort. The actual impressive numbers are Android’s, which already had the lead in 2011 and kept growing extremely fast in 2012.

    • Anders81 says:

      It will be interesting to finally see the actual numbers that samedung has sold droids, since court has denied them to be classified…

  9. Anders81 says:

    Just hold on to your stocks and let the profits run :)

  10. Tom says:

    5 companies you may not see in 2014, number 1 is Nokia with big photo of Elop.

    http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/five-tech-related-companies-that-may-not-see-2014/

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