To the ‘analysts’ that love to rain on the Nokia Lumia parade

News that’s exploding yesterday across the blogosphere is that Nokia+Microsoft’s attempts with the Lumia just might not work. That’s due to the amazing efforts of analysts that base the success of the Lumia on:

1) 5-6 days of sale

2) availability in 6 countries

Amazingly, many have been reporting the Forbes article verbatim, pointing out the supposed ‘dud’ that was the N8. During the first quarter that was not a dud, and for those repeating it blindly, shame on you. Those reporting that Nokia’s stock has plummeted. I’m no stock analyst but didn’t all the stock plummet in line with Nokia? RIM is like in 8B? Anyway, less of that.

Let’s look at some things in perspective again, as pointed out by another Forbes article  (and from an author who’s name I instantly like already, Tero Kuittinnen) that looks at the anatomy.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2011/11/22/anatomy-of-the-nokia-downdraft/

1) Supposed quality issues. Tero notes that this has followed nearly all smartphone launches. After positive news, there’s suspicion of poor battery life. Not something I’ve encountered myself yet though it’s early days. There’s apparently no shortage of doubts regarding Nokia. That’s true. In this time, it is mostly unknown. The brand reputation has been declining since iPhone and there’s nothing that has come out since except possibly N9 and 800 that has been received quite as positively in terms of the entire experience It is going to take a while to get it into consumers minds that Nokia are once again producing some great new devices (lets not forget that Belle will also push Symbian to a place where it doesn’t look that old or decrepit, hey S^3 vanilla?). What Tero had in mind regarding doubt is the US network’s attitudes to Windows Phone but reminds us it’s hard to evaluate Q4 sales when so many more KEY operators are yet to launch the Lumia. There’s still Vodafone Spain, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan as well as the 2012 China, USA and other 30+ countries in the roster. The Lumia is a new Nokia with the most unheard of Windows Phone in a market saturated with the thought that the only things that exist is iPhone and Android.

2) Some positive things, Tero says that early days at Vodafone UK, The Nokia Lumia 800 was outselling the new Blackberry, Samsung and HTC devices. More importantly, this was stronger than ANY of the previous Nokia Symbian smartphones had managed in 2010 (he also notes 2011 though there are no new strong Symbian phones this year). This might not last, but Tero reckons it is a bona fide hit at both Orange UK, and Vodafone – two operators that were extremely cold towards Nokia’s summer Symbian launches. Own anectodal stories from Orange shops say they’ve sold out of Lumia accessories and have sold a lot of Lumias. That’s just one shop in one area of the city and nothing to go on. But still good to hear. Tero believes that Nokia pulled off the strong UK showing largely due to the unusual hardware design of the Lumia 800 – which everyone always instantly just instantly is in awe of. Something we had been expecting based on the rapturous arrival of the N9 and the praise of the brilliant hardware.

Check out below, a techblog in the UK that looks at a wide range of devices – really digging the Lumia 800.

“Nokia Lumia 800 Unboxing & First Look… the iPhone 4S is gone”

“feels like a quality piece of kit, very responsive, loving the screen, feels like such a substantial and well made mobile phone. Love it so far”

Video by davomrmac for Geekanoids

It is perhaps much too early to decide, analysts, the success of the Nokia Lumia platform based on a few short days. And if so, the surge from those days should indicate something else, no? The fact that sale have been stronger than previous Nokias that have still sold more than the entire WP in one quarter is still great, no? To comment on the success when the Lumia is but a starting point and there are higher ends coming next year? When the phone is launched in only 6 countries from less than 6 full days of sale? When India, China, USA are yet to join selling? What about discussing the quiet, poor push of WP by other manufacturers and hence the dismal performances in the last few quarters (As well as still no recognition of Windows Phone as a valid option against iPhone to which Android is now). This first launch isn’t expected to pull the same highs as the accepted brands of Android and of course the iPhone. It takes time to grow such a following. It doesn’t really help when so called analysts barely give the thing a chance based on data from just a few days (to which, even their own conclusion is questionable).

I’ll end this now as I have Uni to rush to. Tero says that RIM’s massive share in UK and decent base in Germany may be vulnerable to the still upcoming Lumia offensive – even with the bigger Nokia Lumia guns not coming till 2012. Nokia apparently does NOT need to attract consumers from Apple or Google and they might never do that. But, in the next six months, capturing old Symbian users (NOT symbian fans aware of the brilliance, just those that use those basic smartphone features and could potentially move to any platform) might and 10-30% of Blackberry users might be enough. If anyone wants numbers, let’s repeat Nokia have said they’re bringing Nokia Windows Phones in volume in 2012. 2012. They just wanted the Lumia out now to show they can get things quickly – and they did.

Shorting Nokia was a great idea last week, when the telecom sector clearly started getting wobbly. I’m not sure the early Lumia sales are as weak as bears now seem to believe.

The Lumia 800 isn’t a dud product. The design is loved. The OS has met with praises. The combination is positive. The 800 is far from perfect but the reaction from consumers has been very positive. Nokia’s efforts for this quarter rests in pushing it to people. Obviously with the initial surge it’s working. Just keep it up, PLEASE!

Source: Forbes

Cheers Joni for the tip!

Category: Nokia, Windows Phone