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MorganStanley estimates 20M+ Q4 smartphone sales for Nokia, 1M Lumia; 40M Symbian, 37M WP 2012

| January 11, 2012 | 65 Replies

 

According to AllThingsDigital, MorganStanley have put together some expected sales for 2012. Interestingly they also estimate Nokia’s 2011 performance (well Q4 2011).  Let’s glean what we can from here.

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  • Total Symbian and Windows Phone sales for 2011 for Nokia account 77M. What about MeeGo/N9? Just with Symbian and Windows Phone, that could make 19.3M sales for Q4 2011. With MeeGo, that might be well over 20M+ no? N9 must have sold at least >1M (and not the infamous 92k units)
  • For comparison that’s 2011 – Q1 at 24.2, Q2 at 16.7, Q3 at 16.8. Nokia will be up from Q3, but down from Q4 2010 which was a huge 28.3M.
  • In total, even without sales from N9, Sales are at least up from 2009 with still increasing shipment estimates year on year.
  • The only thing we can’t see here is whether Nokia will continue to grow with the market growth.
  • Note also, Nokia may have other smartphone platforms in addition to Symbian and WP ;).
  • There’s an estimated 1M Nokia Lumia sold.
  • 40M Symbian for 2012
  • 37M Windows for 2012
  • 64M Windows  for 2013
  • 16M Symbian for 2013
  • 43M combined number of Nokia and HTC, so HTC’s sales are expected to only be 6M for the whole of 2012. NOTE; 43M is not the total for ALL WindowsPhones contrary to what WMPoweruser stated at the time I wrote this post.
43 million this year and 74 million the next. And that’s just those two OEMs alone. There are a few others for which the research house doesn’t provide estimates. 
  • Unless Samsung sell more than 37M WP then Nokia is estimated to become the number 1 WP manufacturer.
  • Let’s compare this with estimates from digitimes. They think Windows Phones is only going to make 40M altogether.
Not exactly sure what these estimates are based on. Anyone have links to their previous estimates to see how they did? Actual Q4 2011 results should appear by the end of the month as usual.

Fierce competition from Android and iOS, lacklustre portfolio until Q4, the new strategy all adds to a much tougher time for Nokia in 2011. Things only look to get harder in 2012. Nokia needs to show their A-game. What if, suddenly the next billion were smartphones?

Source allthingsd via WMPoweruser

Thanks Jeremy and mrprince for the tip!

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Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com
  • deep space bar

    lol lets see that blue bar rise in a few years from higher demand XD….i know it will happen for sure they can’t reduce the production of a well wanted OS if it’s hot…elop already fucked up with the N9 plus the way Nokia is heading with Samsung forcefully taking 1st…they have no choice but to sells as much as possible from all the OSs they have and with HIGH QUALITY

    • Jay Montano

      I totally agree. I want to see the blue bar rise too. Estimates right now are based on what Symbian is in its current state which most of them being Anna, pre anna or S^1, it doesn’t look too promising. Carla/Donna seem might be a whole other story.

      I’d say, stuff Elop’s “best work on WP” when clearly, there’s better work in some ways already in Symbian/N9. Produce best work on WP yes, but also on Symbian at least while you can. No harm in that. Nokia should stop the whole artificially hindering one thing for another like they did with Symbian hindering Maemo and then MeeGo. Whilst they’re strong use them.

      On the flip side,

      It could cause some confusion yes, but HTC/Samsung seem to do ok having multiple platforms that are very different. Whether Nokia has got the capabilities to run all that is another thing.

      I don’t think we’ll mind that Nokia produces phone after phone that significantly improves on the previous (e.g. titan going from 8 to 16mp or ASUS TP from 720p to 1080p screen resolution). As long as they aren’t mediocre. Yes it might piss off consumers that just bought a product, but well that’s tech in general now. Just buy the product if you’re happy with it so no buyers remorse when inevitably something else comes out that’s better.

      • deep space bar

        yep nokia need to that ASAP specially if camera companies are picking up android ….nokia is in a heap of shit since the UI for Wp7 can’t be moddified like android and microsoft want to limit the hardware for wP7 and if elop is gonna get Nokia to sit around picking their noses waiting from microsoft to bring out their crap….so be it nokia is seriously done for it

        Nokia needs that New line up of Symbian next gen phones ASAP and delivered quickly to regain market and re attract developers specially for North America..cause not everyone like that woman interviewed elop said”not everyone wants a windows phone in USA….and Elop needs to friggin realize that

        • poiman

          And even less want a Symbian phone in the USA….and You need to friggin realize that!

          • deep space bar

            USA IS NOT THE WHOLE WORLD….ELOP and the US needs to realized that

            • John Ash

              Actually, U.S. is not even #1 smartphone market anymore.
              Smart companies start concentrating at the next 11 important countries. Nokia is already strong there.

            • krustylicious

              When u have Engadget, slashgear and gizmodo being so anti symbian u have an issue.

              Symbian has never had mindshare its never been “cool” well unless your in the states and still think the n95 is cool and that is symbian of today.

              Microsoft should have dumped wp7 and gone with symbian.

            • Alex Kerr

              USA is about 8% of global phone market.

              • alai132

                small market, without technology leaders.

                • Mark

                  Sure. Apart from Apple and Google obviously.

  • ggg

    i dont trust the prediction

  • incognito

    Hope you all realize that this is terrible, terrible prediction for Nokia. Now, before even commenting, I don’t think that at this point any really credible prediction can be made, and Morgan Stanley prediction is almost as good as anyone’s – there just isn’t enough credible data to make bold assertions of the future – we can’t even reliably predict on the global scale by how much the smartphone market will increase, let alone how each of the participants in that market will fare.

    With that being said, again, this is HORRIBLE news for Nokia. This is basically flat-lining on an ever increasing market. If those predictions are true, and the expected 50%/yr growth of the smartphone market (some predict even 70%!) – Nokia will shrink to under 10% by 2014, and with increased competition, lower prices and profit margins, and Microsoft’s dictatorship on the hardware front for their WP – Nokia won’t survive ’til 2015. And for all that time they’ll be losing not only market share, but profits as well, until they deplete all their reserves. And that’s even optimistic outcome, a pessimist would claim that they won’t survive 2012 if this is true.

    No matter how good the featurephone part of Nokia is profitable – given the drive to switch featurephones to smartphones that market will also shrink – no matter how much money they pull out on their patent portfolio, NSN, Navteq… That won’t be enough to keep them afloat.

    This is not even good for all the born-again Microsoftians and their beloved WP. It’s obvious that Nokia will be the driving force behind WP (unless Microsoft creates similar partnerships with their competition, which is almost a trademark of Microsoft’s doing business as carcases of their ex-partner companies can show us), and they’ll sell at least 80% of all the WP devices out there given that neither Samsung, nor Sony, nor LG are very interested in the WP business – I can imagine Samsung completely giving it up pretty much soon, they do it half-assed anyway. HTC is too small to even matter (btw. if I was them I’d try to partner with HP and start producing webOS devices – there’s their differentiator and a ticket to enter the big league). With annual sales of 37/64M, on the ever-growing smartphone market, they’ll be happy to have 5% market share – third ecosystem, errr elopystem, my ass! Oh, by the way, Symbian will have a larger market share for all that time, ironically. How do you like them burning platforms?!

    This might give Microsoft a bit of a breathing room, tho, but to gain any significance – ain’t gonna happen. The best thing Microsoft can do is to promptly switch to MinWin instead of CE and try to somehow unite their desktop mammoth with their smartphone efforts. WinCE, while generally a decent system, takes too much effort to port on different hardware platforms, and that’s been the cancer of WM and WP since the first day – now it’s even worse as the mobile hardware industry is thriving. Microsoft also needs to stop copying the Apple’s strategy, there is a finite number of people that can agree to those terms, and Apple has most of them already tied in in their elopsystem.

    Again, this is only what can be read from this prediction, but if it bears any truth and reflects in reality – Nokia is a goner. Gone the way of the dodo.

    Oh, yeah, Elop is a brilliant CEO! He turned 47% growth into 20% loss (and counting) in just one year – not to mention profits. I admit, not just any CEO would be capable of that, it takes a special kind to do that.

    • deep space bar

      you know this is what elop’s plan is to do with symbian and WP7 you know that right forcelly decrese the symbian market for Wp7 which isn’t gonna happen with windows XD

    • spacemodel

      Yes, this is how I read these estimates as well.
      Desvestating numbers for Nokia, very depressing, if this is the real future of Nokia than the end is nearing, very fast.

      • deep space bar

        haven’t you noticed from his plan from before which is this this exact chart XD

    • BellGo

      “Oh, yeah, Elop is a brilliant CEO! He turned 47% growth into 20% loss (and counting) in just one year – not to mention profits. I admit, not just any CEO would be capable of that, it takes a special kind to do that.”

      This part pretty much sums up how I feel about him. =/

      • Mark

        Right. As opposed to OPK and his mob he wiped out over 60% of the company’s value in 2007-2008 and then regularly lost half the company’s value after that.

        Here’s a hint. Go and look at Apple’s volumes. Now go and look at Apple’s profits. Guess which model Nokia would prefer?

        • N00-00

          Well Apple doesn’t pay any licensing fee to anyone. Nor do they have factories to manufacture. Also, they sell the phone at an estimated 40-60% profit margin which Nokia can’t afford.

          If Nokia didn’t had to pay MS the licensing fee, this model would do better but sadly that isn’t the case…

          • John Ash

            Apple pays licensing fees to Nokia worth half of Nokia’s 40 eurocent dividends last year. Not bad IMO.

            • Black N9(wish it was 950) 16GB – waiting for the white one

              Those are for using patents. Nokia pays them too like to Kodak… Industry is full of such payments & cross-licensing… As far as I know, Apple & Google didn’t get the agreements done and so were\are getting sued..

              The licensing fee I’m talking about is the OS licensing fee…

        • BellGo

          I never said OPK was any good.

          • Mark

            And yet here you are criticising Elop whilst, in other posts, stating we should abide by the decision to use an outmoded OS made by OPK and which cost th ecompany ove rhalf its peak value.

            Well OK then.

            • N00-00

              Even Elop halved the company’s value in Feb. Why aren’t some criticizing him??

              The outmoded OS you mention is ironically more modern & a true real-time mobile OS compared to others in the market. Also, it was going through a re-skinning phase just MS with WP (it uses an even older Win CE).

              MS started in 2008 with WP and delivered a decent version in 2011(Mango – the initial release (supposed to release in 2009 but got delayed and was released in H2 2010) was more of a feature phone). Nokia started in 2009 with 3 different projects running together (Symbian^3, Symbian^4 and Symbian^5) with different timelines and aims. All these got messed up when Nokia shutdown the foundation, merged it into the company and said all changes in the newer Symbian^4\5 source-tree would find its way to Symbian^3. Even after that, Belle (Symbian^4 with backward Avkon compatibility which was added later in order to run the thousands of apps already out) got released in 2011. Nokia isn’t notoriously bad with updates.. It was just some bad management decision. And even though Symbian was “loved” more than Maemo, it too became a victim..

              • Mark

                Nope. Reduced sales have continued to half the value of Nokia. It happened again in April.

                Elop is trying to turn that around. I have used Symbian phones for years but they haven’t been able to compete. An N8 with Belle released in early 2010 could have – should have – but OPK’s disastrous stewardship caused that to fail.

                • Black N9(wish it was 950) 16GB – waiting for the white one

                  It went down by 30% in Feb just after the announcement.. And then sales went down which lowered it even more.. Blaming OPK for this fall??? This is purely Elop’s..

                  Check the nokia stock graph for a year…

                  http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nok

    • Mark

      Not if the units sold in 2012 etc have a higher ASP it’s not.

      Didn’t think that one through, did you?

      • N00-00

        Higher ASP means nothing if you profit margins aren’t good. With Nokia to give MS licensing fee, buy chipsets from Qualcomm (Nokia would get better deal from ST-Ericsson & TI) and giving more incentives (to the retailers & freebies to customers), the profit margin are going to be hit hardly. A higher ASP would actually be a negative for Nokia’s stocks in this regard…

        • Mark

          Higher ASP generally means higher margins.

          So, no.

          • N00-00

            Higher ASP generally means higher profits only if the margins are maintained.. But margins for Nokia WP devices in 2012 aren’t going to be high for few simple facts.

            1. MS’s WP licensing fee at $15. If Nokia manages to sell the estimated number (37m) of devices, they would pay MS about $550M in fees.

            2. Qualcomm chipsets. Nokia usually uses TI or ST-Electronics chipsets and so get a better deal which helps them in their margins. Having to use Qualcomm’s chipset for WP will have a slight hit at this.

            3. Promotion. Nokia is rumoured to spend $100M (or is it $200M??) in the US for the promotion of Lumia 900 alone. Will few more releases throughout this year and in other regions, Nokia is going to spend a chunk of money which will inturn hit their margins.

            4. Nokia are higher margins for retailers as an added incentive to sell Nokia devices. Add to that the Free Xboxes and other gifts for customer. This would too affect the margins.

            If I make some rough estimates and keep the sales at 40M WP devices in 2012, Nokia would spend about $1-1.2B (at least and can be as high as 1.5-1.6) extra than they would do usually. That is a huge amount and at $25-30 (or 40) per device, it is going to eat into the profits even if the ASP is high (if the ASP is $250, this accounts to 10-16% which isn’t a small figure for profits when you consider that the average price for manufacturing is around 50-60% for Nokia). This is one of the reason why HTC & Samsung aren’t pushing WP like they are with Android because with Android, this expense comes to about half and thus making a better proposition.

            I still haven’t added the outsourced manufacturing for WP devices (Nokia has stated that only the high-end WP devices will be manufactured by Nokia, others like 800\710 would be outsourced). Nokia benefits from manufacturing themselves than outsourcing like Apple.

            We have criticized Nokia skipping on some “essential” features on Lumia 800\710 but have included them in Lumia 900 (like FFC & gyroscope). All the above reasons point to that. Adding them to 900 doesn’t make Nokia lose as much as they did on 800\710. That is they are included..

    • dr_zorg

      Great analysis, it’s what I’ve been trying to say here for a while as well. There is no hope for Nokia any way you look at it. Unless suddenly top tier Symbian and Maemo devices start to appear. With elop in place that is unrealistic.

  • inept

    This estimate for WP7 is absolutely absurd. It is making some seriously bombastic predictions, which even then only sum to a unit-volume flatline for Nokia.

    Once again for clarity: I believe that this prediction for WP7 is absurdly optimistic. The outcome of this absurd optimism is still no unit growth and, therefore, market share decline.

    Twice again: The highly improbable best-case scenario predicted here results in Nokia merely treading water. Meanwhile the competition is increasing volumes and gobbling up market share.

    On the subject of the absurd optimism, I sincerely doubt that Nokia will move 37M WP7 devices next year. It’s improbable that more than 8M WP7 devices were sold in total for 2011 so we’re talking about a minimum 400+% growth rate in the platform and it’s by one vendor alone? No way. If Nokia could do half the predicted 37M, I think that would be a huge win for them.

    I expect the real numbers for 2012 to look worse than these predictions. Nokia will dip below 10% smartphone market share in 2012, IMO.

    • krustylicious

      I can’t see 10m wp phones being sold. People in general don’t like the wp7 interface. Which must be a worry for microsoft given its stance “everything metro”.

      windows 8 is primed to flop as badly as wp7x.

      • Mark

        “People in general don’t like the wp7 interface.”

        Really? Source please. Or are you just projecting?

        “windows 8 is primed to flop as badly as wp7x.”

        Want to bet some money on that?

        • N00-00

          “People in general don’t like the wp7 interface.”
          Really? Source please. Or are you just projecting?

          The total sales can be used as a pointer to that.. The response to WP hasn’t been overwhelming at all.. It has been lukewarm since its introduction and people have stayed away from it..

          • incognito

            That’s because there wasn’t a Real Windows Phone before Q4/’11, now it will pick up faster than any platform in the history of mobile industry *whistle*

            • Black N9(wish it was 950) 16GB – waiting for the white one

              Lol..

              Honestly, that was a bad statement to make. The “Real Windows Phone”..

  • http://nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com kamal

    guys,i too have done some predictions.at least my q4 predictions is close to morgan Stanley’s.but one thing for sure,nokia will see up mostly from now onwards.

    nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com/2012/01/11/why-samsungs-dream-is-wishful-thinking/

    http://nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/swot-analysis-and-q4-prediction117-million-shipments-for-nokia/

  • stylinred

    those estimates by morgan stanley for symbian 2011 are still very impressive…. dead os huh…

    • Diogo

      Symbian sales was best on Q4 2011, more than Android and iPhone.

      • stylinred

        really?! i must have missed the reports? busy holiday season for me

      • Alex Kerr

        Diogo can you provide a link supporting that as I’d be interested to see the figures (I believe you). Or are you referring to the Gartner report a couple of months ago?

      • N00-00

        Did you mean 2010 instead of 2011? Because Symbian did sell more than iOS & Android back in 2010.

  • faketommi

    if this prediction is true then nokia is in real bad shape. But a win for ms in any case. Fire elop asap!

  • Gst

    Main issue with wp7 phone it compete with ios not with android/symbian in terms of hardware support so wp7 is pretty much restricted to particular range of device,very limited features will prevent users jump from symbian base and people are not aware of wp7 that it not same as windows7 desktop os which is just a buggy and laggy.Selling 37million wp7 this year by nokia is more like a dream unless microsoft bring some radical change in its os and stop imitating ios.

  • Mark

    Interesting. A lot of whining from people who are proclaiming Nokia doomed because volume is estimated to drop off.

    I suggest these people go an look at the ASP and profit Nokia made in 2010 before going on about ‘volume’ as I think Nokia would rather sell fewer handsets for more profit. After all, Apple have never dominated in terms of volume but absolutely rule in terms of profit share.

    The volume peak in 2010 is one of the things that cost OPK his job. He flooded the market with cheap phones at a loss in order to maintain share. That’s not good business. Tomi wrote a good article on this before he became a bit bitter.

    • N00-00

      Tomi has always written articles considering Nokia’s welfare.. And when in that position, Nokia-MS deal is only bad for Nokia considering Nokia has to pay MS the full licensing fee for WP. And the sevices which Nokia “might” get paid from MS are only limited to Nokia right now (so that MS doesn’t have to pay Nokia a single penny). Also, limiting Nokia to use Qualcomm’s chipsets hits Nokia’s margins as well.

      Apple runs in a different way and we can’t consider Nokia WP effort to Apple. Check my reply to one of your comment above.

      Also, many Nokia fans (including me) aren’t very supportive of OPK either. He did lot of mistakes back in 2007 and Nokia’s shares went down a lot.. But in 2009, he and others started the slow and tedious (but a right one) plan to integrate Qt into all its OSes and have one cross-platform development tool. Questions were asked about it back then but by mid-2010, everyone who followed Nokia’s progress started to see the first fruits of this long plan and were eager to see the full effects of that in 2011.. Nokia’s shares were rising (slowly but surely) since mid-2010 until the Feb’11 announcement.. Even though ASP was less in 2010, Nokia was still making a healthy profit.. They could have scaled back (stopped some of the cheaper models) in 2011 if they wanted to make better profit margins.

      The hate for Elop is because he took over an healthy manufacturer, said the current platforms weren’t any good and will be terminated and then went for an OS which wasn’t one of the best either which resulted in losses and the company losing lot of its good will. Morale went down within the company, customers lost confidence and the sales went down.. An slight retract in April did help a little but it wasn’t much.. And now he is hell bent on spending a lot to promote an OS which hasn’t done well in spite its creator spending about 3/4 of a billion in campaigning for over a year.. WP is a competitor to iOS and many in that ecosystem won’t move from that. Also, MS’s negative image isn’t good either..

      Everyone say N8 should have had Belle since the start. I agree and this applies to WP. Mango should have been what WP should have been when it started and Apollo should be released when Mango was released… MS is as notorious with updates as Nokia was/is with Symbian…

      • krustylicious

        Elop set fire to 3 platform to replace them with a platform that is more limited and less liked..

      • GordonH

        Anybody on the the Nokia board sensible enough to read your comment? it’s fascinating to see the things Elop and co., doing to kill so my good things at Nokia.

      • Mark

        “The hate for Elop is because he took over an healthy manufacturer”

        Except he didn’t. If he had then the N97 would never have been released and the N8 would have been out with Belle in late 2009/early 2010.

        • Guest

          Gorilla glas, pentaband, USB-OTG and HDMI on a phone 2009, i dont think so.

          • Mark

            No-one cares about HDMI out or USB-OTG. On the other hand they do care about a good UI and a stable platform.

            Nokia would have been better served not worrying about the nerd features and focusing on what matters to the general consumer. They might be in a better position if they had.

            • N00-00

              Really? The current market-share doesn’t agree to that.. 2 fragmented, buggy, laggy OSes lead the market (Android & Symbian) whereas a fluid, non-fragmented, bug-free OS still can’t make into a major player in spite of getting almost a billion in promotion..

              Nokia’s current problems is because it is going the way you think is better. Not selling WP devices the way Nokia planned in 2011, Still not estimated to sell as many Symbian devices in 2012 & 2013 (according to many other analysts) points to a totally different thinking..

              The closed ecosystem is one of the reasons why people are not attracted towards WP. Apple is different because it is Apple but many of Apple users jailbreak their phones for a reason. Even WP owners paid the extra $10 to get their phone unlocked by Chevron.. Customers need some freedom..

        • N00-00

          Nokia’s balance sheets would beg to differ. So would many of Nokia’s fans\followers.. Atlease it was making profits and its 2-yr plan of Qt was just coming into fruition..

          What could\would have been is a different story. What has happened cannot be erased. Your argument with N97 & N8 with Belle applies to WP. Wp should have been announced with Mango and Apollo should have been released when Mango was released. Even Windows Vista was delayed and the original LongHorn name was shelved. Does that make MS a unhealthy company? No.. Just a bad release plan by the management..

          There is a story doing the rounds saying Nokia board hired Elop because of pressure from American stakeholders.. They wanted Elop to be the CEO while the board had originally selected somebody else..

  • krustylicious

    OPK also sat on not releasing updates to symbian fast enough and also didn’t use the u8500 dual core chip in the n8 ..

    • jiipee

      Or in a model using Maemo/Harmattan

    • N00-00

      Agree.. ST-Ericsson got a symbian version running on the u8500 chip before other OSes back in 2010. Symbian EAK2 always had support for dual-cores but it wasn’t properly developed\tested.. If they had developed on that, Symbian would have been miles ahead today.. I’m mad at Nokia for stagnating on the old arm11 architecture for about 5 years..

  • Mee

    The Dump CEO is dreaming about 2013
    Long live Symbian & Meego

  • dsfgdf

    Dream on, Microsoft. Cry, Nokia. Because this is impossible.

  • symbego

    I only need clarification from Elop, what is the future of Symbian / MeeGo/ Maemo? But the MS trojan doesn’t have bravery to answer it. It is a tough dilemma for him.

    If he say symbian / meego will stay alive, then people will stick with them, won’t move to WP. If he say they will die, people will get angry & abandon nokia at all.

  • Francis

    I don’t this is realistic for Nokia WP (from 1M/month to 3M/month).

    By looking at the Nokia presentation in CES, which they claimed coming big, i do not impressed with their so call top rank Lumia 900. Lumia 900 do not have any significant features over Lumia 800 except bigger screen, nor better than N9 (which had very special OS, and many user felt proud of using it).

    I think Lumia 900 may not able to create significant sale figure as many people will not buy it at this high price and no top rank feature/spec. WP Mango is now consider a a bit outdated since it is on market more that half year. Momentum is gone.

    Personally i think Nokia will be able to create good sale on Symbian’s Phone due new product line such as N8 successor. Nokia WP may be in range of maximum 5M-8M sale for year 2012.

    Remember, currently Nokia Sale mostly come from Asia, but in my opinion WP may not able to create good sale here.

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  • noki

    How to get 37 million….
    needs 1 million on Q4, apparently it did not,…

    In Q1 3 million
    in Q2 6 million
    in Q3 10 Million
    in Q4 18 Million

    This is the utmost minimum in 3 months we should get the Q1 results and in 6 months we should have a pretty good idea if at all it will be possible to reach those numbers.

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