IDC: Persistent with prediction that WP will overtake iOS

| June 7, 2012 | 82 Replies

IDC is making some predictions again of the smartphone marketshares. By 2016, they expect Windows Phone to reach 19.2%, edging out iOS at 19.0%, far behind Android at 61.0%

Is WP even at 5% now? Are they predicting a good second half for 2012?

BTW, looking back at past predictions, it is interesting that despite all current events, IDC still maintains a similar prediction from last year (20.9%)

http://mynokiablog.com/2011/03/29/windows-phone-to-eclipse-symbian-ios-blackberry-by-2015-as-second-biggest-mobile-os-behind-android/#comments

Question on everyone’s minds…how does IDC pluck out these predictions?

Source: TechnoBuffalo via

 

Category: Nokia

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com

Comments (82)

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  1. prediction is just a prediction.

    lots of prediction never happens.

    but i hope this will happen earlier than predicted. ;-)

    • Reonhato says:

      You are right. Nokia needs this to happen in at least 2 years from now if they are in a 100% WP only strategy. 2016 is quite too long.

      • but i doubt it would happen.

        imagine a company announcing a phone and releasing it 3-4 months after (if i’m not mistaken) at the earliest..

        ehem!

        hellow 808, how are you? you have been announced last end of february. but where are you now? you are supposed to be availabe come the month of may, right. now its already june. i am very excited to hold you! when are you going to hug me? when i’m already inlove with a robot or a fruit? when it’too late?

        OneX & GS3 have been courting me lately. So don’t blame me if i fall inlove with one or both of them.

        And why don’t you just change your tagline from:

        “NOKIA..Connecting People”

        to the most appropriate one:

        “NOKIA.. Disappointing People”?

        RSVP.

  2. Aah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haa.. :D

    Is IDC some sort of comedy house? They should do skits for SNL?

  3. i predict says:

    i predict nokia close down and mynokiablog also close down next year!

    • JGrove303 says:

      I predict you get the Clap from a trick named Jim and live out your days whole up in you parent’s attic tolling blogs…..

      Not a prediction?

      /troll bashing

      They ,ay be using some kind of metic that takes decline in Apple users, the sudden growth of WP users and some crazy algorithms for time. 4 years from now a lot can happen.

      Have you seen the rumors for the iPhone 5? A move from f/2.4 to f/2.2, a HD capable front facing camera and a sub 720p 4.1″ Retina display. I can’t imagine too many Android users jumping ship to that or many 4S users wanting to make that kind of upgrade. I can imagine iPhone users getting fed up with that locked down drag-ass ecosystem and jumping aboard the Nokia Lumia Express with better design, larger, more vibrant display (despite pixel density) and especially with the promise of Pure View equipment.

      iOS does have better games atm, but when Sony releases the Playstation Mobile to the rest of the Android world, that will likely change. Hell, WP could tap into a real allowing with better use of XBox Live and get some serious non casual gaming going on.

      I don’t feel like the prediction could be all that far off.

      • incognito says:

        I can imagine iPhone users getting fed up with that locked down drag-ass ecosystem and jumping aboard the Nokia Lumia Express with better design, larger, more vibrant display (despite pixel density) and especially with the promise of Pure View equipment.

        You do realize that WP is at least as closed down ecosystem as iOS is, if not more (iOS at least gives you some native access to the hardware, unlike the WP), right? If somebody gets fed up with one closed ecosystem, why in hell would she switch to the same kind of ecosystem?

        As for better design, at the moment Nokia does seem to have the edge when it comes to physical design, especially the N9 / Lumia 800 lineage, but how can anyone predict it will stay like that for another 4 years – if anything, we can be sure that Apple has quite a good design team that won’t go down without a fight. When it comes to the UI/UX design, WP has extremely polarizing one probably as much hated as loved – I, for example consider it fugly beyond all comprehension – but then the iOS design isn’t much better either, so I wouldn’t go down the path of comparing them.

        Either way, I don’t see the reason why would anyone switch from iOS to WP apart from a slight change in design at the expense of vastly inferior ecosystem, or why would someone switch from WP to iOS apart from a better ecosystem at the expense of being tied to only one device manufacturer with seriously overblown prices. I don’t see the reason why would Android user – or even BBOS/Symbian/Maemo/MeeGo/Bada/etc. apart from some of those disappearing from the market so their users are left without a choice – switch to either the WP or iOS. Nothing to gain, a lot of freedom to lose.

        • Ebon & Unicorn N9s says:

          +1 as always..

        • Mark says:

          “Either way, I don’t see the reason why would anyone switch from iOS to WP”

          Because a change is as good as a rest. Human nature 101.

        • Harangue says:

          People won’t switch from iOS to WP because of the closed down nature of iOS. That is of course utter nonsense, WP is probably just as closed down as iOS is and on some levels even more (native code)

          However, the one thing iOS currently doesn’t offer is diversity. The iPhone has been the same both software wise and hardware wise (physical size, not chips etc.) for years now. There is only the 1 iPhone you can buy, there is no difference in price point, form factor and such. Yes, prices go up from the standard 16GB, prices also go down from the 4/4S to the 3GS, but the experience that offers is debatable.

          What iOS and WP do offer is heaps and heaps of stability and dependability. Boths systems offer a very predictable use and quality feel.

          Android has become as succesfull as it is, because of the huge amount of different devices out there that cater to many tastes. Coupled with the variety of price point one can get an Android device and it basically equals the large marketshare Android has managed to get. The downer on Android is, however, the laggy performance on the lower specced devices and the generally poorer experience that same low to mid end offer. The real high end devices like One X and GS3 don’t suffer as much from weird Android-ness, although even top-tier devices like the GS2 show many issues for people that received updates or not at all even.

          So, in a nutshell. WP has the potential to steal iOS users because Apple isn’t innovating right now in terms of hardware. They aren’t offering enough choice. They don’t need to offere butloads of different devices, but they do need to add a few more different sized/specced devices if they want to grow or even maintain there marketshare as it is now.

          In the end though it is all predictions and if Apple were to offer more devices my whole reasoning above immediatly falls to pieces, just like IDC prediction which is based on current available knowledge.

          • Lord US says:

            Who is innovating in terms of the hardware? Everyone is just ramping up specs and focusing on software. It’s very hard to get huge sales with hardware innovations if you think the SGS3 is not a hardware innovation.

            The Windows Phone is a great OS for the purpose it’s designed for and it will surely gain some more traction in the future. But that’s software.

            • Bosh says:

              Of course the SGS3 is not hardware innovation. It’s like saying a new laptop with a the latest processor is hardware innovation, Samsung made the same phone with a bigger screen (where’s the innovation here?), with a processor that anyone can manufacture (quad-core ARM, the innovation goes to ARM) and nothing else.

              People tend to confuse hardware improvement with innovation.

              • Lord US says:

                That’s true. The SGS3 is really an imprivement. Speaking of confusing improvements with the innovations, some people are confusing the PureView effect and the sensor with an innovation. That’s actually very strange.

                We have very little hardware innovations nowdays. Just improvements and some small innovations done with the software.

                • Shane says:

                  And will it be an innovation when WP’s using it?
                  I have a feeling you’ll be arguing the opposite in 9mth+.

        • Keith too says:

          Regardless of whether you see the reason why people switch from iOS or Android to WP, many do just that. If you interested you can read a sample of their reasons in the Amazon comments for the Lumia 900s.

  4. Gäst says:

    Wasn’t last years prediction pretty much that all Symbian users would change to WP.
    And why do they still group together WP7/WM?
    And to be honest i don’t think WP7 ever will get 19.2% since i don’t think WP7 will be sold for long.
    But WP have declined since last years predictions where the Compound Annual Growth Rate where 67.1% and is now down to 46.2%.

    • Gäst says:

      “Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia’s strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia’s foothold in emerging markets is maintained. ”
      http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23523812

      So they rely on Nokia for this.
      The same Nokia that lost most of it’s market share in those markets.
      And also recently lost there MEA distributor to Samsung.

  5. stormtroller says:

    I predict N9 successor will be announce next year! added up what’s missing in N9′s hardware with awesome camera than N8 !

  6. spacemodel says:

    It’s always nice to start the day with a good laugh.

    • Mark says:

      I doubt you laugh at anything. You’re far to depressing.

      As for the stats… possible but, frankly, unlikely. It depends what traction Windows 8 gets and how that then drives Windows Phone 8. You never know.

      • spacemodel says:

        It’s hard to beat a comedian like you, Mark.

      • ashok pai says:

        dint they say the same about mango ? i feel they should change the fruit this time to something more rosy, look at apple! :p

        • Mark says:

          No. They didn’t. Nice try though.

          • ashok pai says:

            my memory is hazy, but it seemed like they did, microsoft did. mango was supposed to rescue the windows boat, bring huge changes – who was that some microsoft guy saying how amazing mango was. don’t remember that ?

            nokia said the real deal would be windows 8, in terms of hardware – but that was nokia saying, not microsoft.

      • Gäst says:

        “As for the stats… possible but, frankly, unlikely. It depends what traction Windows 8 gets and how that then drives Windows Phone 8. You never know.”
        Well in the stats there specifically taking about windows phone 7/Windows mobile as far as i can read it.
        So there no way that it will reach anywhere near that prediction.

  7. gabriel9 says:

    If Apple take Elop for CEO it will happen. :D

  8. manu says:

    if wpbrings in missing features and closes the app gap with ios& android.it can sure overatake ios.iphone has 0% or ngeligible marketshare in india and many other nokia’s strong hold regions.

  9. JD! says:

    What about old IDC predictions?

    Now we need some Tarrot card readers next pls!

  10. illidan says:

    Makes sense , nowadays most of the high end android devices being sold are mostly samsung devices . Sales of HTC has been consistently falling since the last 4 to 5 quarters . If this trend continues , then HTC, sony and other OEM’S might leave android in around 2 years . That time the only viable alternative for them will be to build windows phones .

  11. steelicon says:

    Too little, too late. Well at least it’s good for laughs. The kiss of death has sealed the fate of Nokia, and only a series of miraculous resurrections can save its fiery crash.

    • Harangue says:

      I really don’t want to get into the whole going WP vs. sticking with Symbian thing, but I do need to add one thing.

      A recent study in the Netherlands showed Android having 38% of the entire phone market there. That is including all dumbphones and whatnot. Symbian was at 5% in march/april last year and floundering in the 2% range after that. Granted, WP was also in the same percentage region, but the point remains; Symbian would have put Nokia in the same boat in one of the highest saturated smartphone markets in Western Europe.

      So, either way; Nokia would have been screwed.

  12. sk says:

    ok but what about nokia?

  13. Paul Grenfell says:

    Predicting all Windows OS, not just Nokia Lumia.. Nokia are not the only WP reseller..

  14. Ebon & Unicorn N9s says:

    A little wishful in my view.. But if that happens, 90% of WP to be Nokias..

    • James says:

      Yeah but do you honestly think they’re going to maintain the lead they have?
      I have serious doubts they will….
      Samsung/LG/HTC/Sony etc. are rumoured to be bringing their “A-game” to WP8/W8.
      If not at the end of this year, then definitely H1 2013…
      I fear Nokia may well get outdone, EVEN WHEN they don’t have to focus on the OS so much.
      Plus MS won’t want Nokia to have such a large chunk LT, that’s not in their interests.

      • Ebon & Unicorn N9s says:

        I know that but for me its just Nokia. I’m not interested in what MS wants.. I want Nokia to do well.

        From what I heard, Sony & LG haven’t committed to Win8\WP8 yet. Samsung may release some good devices but with MS blocking HTC from Win8, I don’t think they would be very interested in WP8.

        • James says:

          Pretty sure there’s going to be devices from more than Samsung.
          CBF’d digging them all up now, but there’s def. quite a few other big players.

          Nokia needs to stand-out BIG TIME, if they don’t then I won’t buy their 1st REAL WP.
          Instead I’ll buy one from a competitor…
          That’s if I decide to get a WP at all to compliment my other makes/models/os’s.

          They just have no more excuses when it comes to delivering a truly stand-out device*
          They’ve had long enough now, focused mostly on only ONE OS for the top-end.

          *buy the time we hit Oct. or later that is.

  15. Shaun says:

    Jay, slight error in the story. Android isn’t 61% in 2016.

    If you look at the reasoning IDC give, they reckon on Nokia selling cheap Windows phones to Africa and developing countries. If that is so then WP will still be a very minor player in the USA and almost nonexistent in Europe.

    IDC seem to have totally discounted Nokia’s Next Billion strategy which uses S40 and Meltemi.

  16. ms.nokia says:

    my prediction, but don’t call me an ANALyst

    wp 50%
    android 25%
    ios 20%
    leftovers 5%

    • incognito says:

      You’re too modest on Microsoft behalf… Nothing less than 90% is worthy for Microsoft, they can’t operate efficiently outside of de-facto monopolies. -_-

      Now, if you would only devise the means to achieve that goal outside of wishful thinking and blind faith in a company, I’m sure you’d help the WP cause a lot…

      • Mark says:

        Apart from the Xbox. Oh and Sky Drive.

        Perhaps you should question your own blind faith, hmm?

        • Luisito says:

          The Xbox succes has more to do, with the deep pockets of MS buying developers and their exclusivity for work only on the Xbox, just take for example Epic Entertaiment the guy behind Gear of Wars, or how they buy Halo series (it was headed to be a Mac’s only game)… MS has change the game-console world and a bad change if you ask me, now everybody pay 60 US$/Eur for a Multiplayer game with a single game mode as a bonus. What happend to the statment The Seventh Art, now it’s just it have a favolous multiplayer and a crappy story mode… thanks MS, you always can screw good things.

          For Sky-Drive, I have a account there, it’s married with my now underuse Hotmail account, so I count for the active users, but I never have used it.

  17. BellGo says:

    You know that a prediction is bad when they can’t even get the current WP percentage correct.. (It is currently 1-2%, not 5%)

  18. ziggyball says:

    I can’t see 1 in 20 smartphones *worldwide* being WP this year, 2012. I doubt it’ll get to that level in WP’s main markets!

    *BUT* by 2016, if you include all win 8 devices with a cellular modem, then yes, 20% seems reasonable…

    • JamesSB says:

      Could easily happen. 1 in 20 is 5%. With Windows Phone 8 out be the end of the year, new phones would increase market share. In one market, Windows Phone is already above 5% – Finland. And in other major market, WP keeps growing.

  19. swain says:

    Clearly it looks impossible unless MS brings some serious enhancements in Windows Phone 8(Apollo).
    IDC must provide some facts in support of their prediction. Otherwise it looks like a laughing stuff.

    • JamesSB says:

      Maybe because the Nokia Lumia 900 was the second best selling phone at AT&T for the month of May, second month in a row.

  20. inept says:

    Note the most important aspect of the new prediction and what makes it not-at-all similar to the former one is that they’re now predicting for FY 2016 as opposed to 2015.

    That means that expectations are actually pretty substantially reduced.

    According to IDC’s current expectations, WP7 will achieve less market penetration than their previous expectations and it will do so a whole year later than they had previously expected. A year is a very long time in mobile at this stage and the outlook from IDC obviously isn’t for rapid growth by any stretch of the imagination.

    What we can extrapolate from IDC’s prediction here is that maybe we shouldn’t count on a catalyst that will ignite Windows Phone. It’s just not going to happen, guys. Ever. No carrier, no vendor/OEM and no version of the software is going to be the catalyst that Windows Phone proponents are expecting. Folks keep pointing to the next catalyst and predicting that this time it will be the one, but it never is.

    Instead, it’s just going to be a hard fought battle over the long term to keep up with Google and Android and hopefully win some customers that they lose. With Apple sucking most of the profits out of the industry and Google sucking most of the users up, all that’s left for Microsoft and Nokia is scraps of both. This will be a very long and costly war for Microsoft and Nokia and we probably shouldn’t expect any return to glory days for Nokia. It’s tough times ahead.

    And naturally analysts will keep adjusting their predictions to project current facts forward. The state today suggests that things are worse for Microsoft/Nokia than they were previously. Unfortunately, at this rate it looks like analysts will keep adjusting their predictions downward.

  21. sepp says:

    So nokia went from 35% marketshare at the end of 2010 to around 5% (half of windows phone/windows mobile + some remaining symbian) at the end of 2012?

    Congrats Elop, you’re doing great!

    (Every other CEO would get tarred and feathered for such a performance)

    • Anastasios-Antonios Toulkeridis says:

      5 percent today and 20 in five years is FAR better than 20 percent today and 5 in five years but u obvious don’t know anything about business. Elop did the right thing

      • sepp says:

        Rather 20% with meego and billions of saved cash thanks to a proper transition, than 20% with wp and empty pockets. If they’re down to 5% at the end of year and things don’t improve fast, only massive downsizing can save them from bankruptcy. It will be the end of the nokia we knew.

  22. twig says:

    Nokia just got a contract for a L.A group of 16k members. These all add up.

  23. Grendell says:

    I’ll go out on a limb and say Windows can but maybe not to the extent that IDC predicts. I think Nokia has a good shot at winning back some of it’s customers if it can make WP8 address the needs of Symbian users with features they’ve been used to. Pureview, HDMI out, BT file transfer, FM transmitter..all of which add value to the Nokia multimedia experience. This window however, has a time limit..while people still remember some of the great phones Nokia has come out with it’s past OS. If WP8 can do it, they get my money..at least til Meltemi shows up with something similar.

  24. sdafdsaf says:

    Where is Symbian? It is much more then 7.2%. So, all this IDC is bullshit.

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