An ex Nokian addresses invalid Nokia statements – cleaning out the FUD machine.
I enjoyed Ahonen’s analysis of the mobile market until it seemed that he turned a little sour. It wasn’t because he was now simply against the Nokia that I love. It was because in my opinion, he was using facts and numbers but twisting them to get the outcome on his new agenda. Conclusions can often be completely different based on the same identical correct set of events. For example, this:
http://mynokiablog.com/2012/05/04/mnb-reader-generated-fact-checking-what-was-said-at-nokia-agm/
And it gets worse when malformed conclusions are reported as unquestioned gospel.
It’s difficult to counter for many reasons. Firstly, if you try and do so directly on his blog, criticisms will be removed. Secondly, because it’s hard to keep up with those tends of thousand of word posts to begin with. It wouldn’t be fair to Ahonen not to read his full post and get my conclusion based on its entirety. But the sheer size and frequency of large blog posts makes this a rather time consuming task, and as you know, I’m already very much limited on time with what I do on this hobby blog and real life.
Further more, it’s just drama I’d rather avoid (relentless negativity and confrontation) plus feeling of futility that you cannot separate a determined man from his agenda.
Actually, I wasn’t even going to highlight this but I keep getting mails to do so. Plus, what with all the Nokia bashing, it may be good to have a different perspective on things.
I have no idea who this person is, or why we should be paying any more attention to him than Ahonen. For some reason they’ve set up a blog which aims to precisely do what I wanted to do but no longer have the energy or desire to do so: go through Ahonen’s pieces to point out anomalies, inconsistencies, misinformation etc.
The author is also Ex Nokian, a Finnish ex Nokia guy as indicated by his Finnish tweets (though he could be of any nationality and a Finnish speaker). He’s an engineer in fact. His aim is to address invalid statements by Ahonen. Without taking this ExNokian’s own words for gospel either, feel free to go through his rebuttals should they also be erroneous.
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/china-math-from-tomi-ahonen-feat-cn/
Ahonen is aware of this guy. He brands ‘ex Nokian’ as a troll, making sure no one pays attention by defacing Ex Nokian’s character as someone who just wants traffic for their blog, using Ahonen’s name to get exposure. Has he got a personal beef with Ahonen? Is Ex Nokian’s conclusions about Ahonen also equally clouded? See for yourself in the many posts he’s done (should you have the time to do so). Their blog is relatively new, with archives from June 2012.
Ahonen says “Ex Nokian” is untrustworthy because he blogs anonymously.
There are many reasons to blog anonymously/under a pseudonym etc. I wouldn’t say that makes anyone instantly untrustworthy. Their actions and content under that anonymity will indicate if they are or aren’t trustworthy. Or is the value of a comment only worth who says it in the first place, not what is actually being said?
Ex Nokian explains here: http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/about/who-is-anonymous-ex-nokian/
Note, unlike Ahonen, here we do NOT remove comments of any sort other than spam. Share your opinion, but do so maturely. Keep personal attacks to a zero. Stay relevant to the topic. Address the topic of conversation not the character of the person you’re discussing it with.
Thanks everyone for the tip.
Category: Nokia
About the Author (Author Profile)
Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.comSubscribe
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I do believe that, in a way, Tomi Ahonen is right: Elop has made many mistakes, and I haven’t seen anyone step up to discuss openly about them. I stopped reading him because of the vitriol, but still, Elop brought many issues, and I just don’t see anyone calling him (in a civilized way) on that, even in this blog.
There we have the problem: In a civilized way! there’s far too much “f*** E***” out there. Mistakes were made (and most of them before 2011), but let’s give the man some time. After all, even Steve Jobs (after his return in 1997) didn’t make Apple a success story overnight! Remember how many people howled when OS 9 was killed? OS X back then wasn’t on par with OS 9 in many respects, but it had a foundation that made it fit for the future. We may see the same with WP (though, frankly, I wouldn’t have minded if they’d gone with MeeGo/Maemo instead).
Oh, and let’s not forget, MS had a big hand in helping Apple get back in its feet by delivering Internet Explore and Microsoft Office updates (the latter still today) for quite a while!
I’m not sure that the main strategy was a failure, clearly the execution left a lot more to desire. I don’t think that Nokia had the capacity anymore in 2010/2011 to compete against android or iOS without a partner . Maybe if they could’ve released a killer Symbian device in the spring of 11, things would’ve looked better. With the change of focus, such a device was clearly harder to produce, but how much harder? …and also the dumb phone strategy was carried out too slowly.
True, I agree and all numbers available (even those of Ahonen) show that Symbian sales were declining fast in 2010 and early 2011. I remember some of the reviews of the N8, E7 etc. back then, the comments on Symbian, esp. S^3, Nokia’s future bet, were devastating. Imagine what it would have been like if something like Symbian Belle had been around right at the launch of the N8!
For me personally the question is why WP and not MeeGo or better Maemo. The N9 was a good device, not perfect software-wise when it started, but why didn’t they focus on that? Did they have more faith in MS executing a consistent software strategy? I’ve read here in this blog in some comments that apparently MeeGo/Maemo in 2011 wasn’t at a stage at which you could have released a full range of devices (see Lunmia 610/710/800/900). Is that so? Not that I dislike WP, I like it actually, just wondering.
@Loci
you argument with false information.
Symbian sales actually grew until Q1/2011. Q1 2011 is the first time Symbian sales fell off the cliff.
So, why do you write “all numbers available (even those of Ahonen) show that Symbian sales were declining fast in 2010″?
Spreading FUD to make a point?
First, I was probably wrong to say, sales were declining, but market share was declining. Anyway, as many devices as they sold, even if it were some more in 2010 due to a growing market, they couldn’t keep up with competitors. I remember reading somewhere, though, that also sales were declining throughout 2010 in absolute numbers; but I’m happy to read real numbers, I was trying to find some.
As for my market share claim, I’m citing Ahonen’s own blog entry from January 27, 2011:
“We have just received Nokia Q4 quarterly results for 2010. I wrote a blog about the numbers. Here are the big picture facts. For the first half of the year 2010, Nokia grew rougly as fast as the industry. It ended year 2009 with 39% market share in smartphones. At the end of Q2 it had 39% market share. Then in Q3 and Q4, suddenly – catastrophically – Nokia growth slowed to anemic, for the first time for as long as I can remember, Nokia’s quarterly growth was the slowest of any of the biggest 6 smartphone makers, and far slower than the industry. Nokia’s market share crashed to 33% after Q3 and down to (about) 28% after Q4. In six months, Nokia destroyed 11 points of market share – it abandoned one quarter of its total market – in half a year!”
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/undesirable-at-any-price-what-happened-to-nokia-who-invented-the-smartphone.html
I am making the assumption based on what he says. I may have been too unspecific, though. I am referring to smartphone devices, not the feature phone segment.
Or, another not-so-happy analysis from back then:
http://www.intomobile.com/2011/01/27/nokia-q4-2010-sales-up-profits-down/
Please do correct me if I reflect something incorrectly or if the blog entry is saying something wrong. I’ll try to summarise what I understand from it:
Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2010: 23% less profit.
The average smartphone sold at 156 €, 17% less than the year before.
Yes, they sold quite a few S^3, but apparently didn’t really earn on it. So “not sell well” has more than one dimension, i.e. more to it than just the number of devices shipped…
As it seems, people here are in love with a corporation and won’t accept anything that tarnishes that corporation’s reputation, including hiring one of the most incompetent CEOs ever. So no, we won’t be able to read here a mature debate about how Elop has plunged the company in record time (something Ahonen has been correctly pointing for ages now).
Now that I think of it, that’s what being a fanboy is all about, isn’t it? That’s fine. I just didn’t know this phenomenon, so common in Apple-land, existed in Nokia-land too, but apparently it does.
Well, Elop has burned down every single bridge so the free falling Windows mobile OS will probably take Nokia with it. Unless WP8 is a success (let me doubt that, given the track record) or Jolla is in reality the infamous “Plan B”.
You REALLY think Ahonen is capable of mature debate on his site? He deletes too many comments for there to be a debate at all.
And on MNB the Elop haters drown out any attempts at mature debate. I’d love mature debate.
I think all we do is discuss Elop’s mistakes.
There is plenty of discussion.
But Tomi is now on a mission. There is no discussing with him.
I didn’t even know Ahonen a few months ago. I don’t give a damn about his attitude or agenda. I don’t even believe most of his figures (although some are not his). But both his blog posts and forecasts are spot on (if unnecessary long and filled with self-praise and silly hatred).
You have to be really blind not to see what’s been going on at Nokia since Elop arrived. Simple facts that have been listed here already (even without figures) speak for themselves. And the list is just too long to keep believing Nokia is going anywhere but down with this guy in charge.
Even Nokia lovers (I have a hard time understanding anyone loving or hating a company…) must admit their object of love is about to disappear and Elop is hugely responsible for that. Why Nokia lovers don’t hate Elop is beyond me.
Nokia lovers here that profess undying love for Elop here, after everything that has happened, are simply paid shills, nothing more. Do not be naïve. There can be no rational debate with astroturfers.
LOL!
You don’t need to defend or ctiticise what Ahonen says because what he writes is on his blog it has no effect on Nokia. What Elop has done and is continuing to do does.
Your loyalty to Nokia should be to the principles of Nokia and not to the management who are destroying Nokia each and everyday.
Everybody hates people who’re”wrong” on the Internet, that’s just how it . I understand that you’re furious about the current management, but my view is that the collapse would’ve probably happened anyway. The completion was just too hard and Nokia too slow
you think Dominies Communicate does not delete comments? He/She just deleted mine from this article http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/anonymous-ex-nokian-in-twitter-is-exnokian/
“Guideline for commenting:
I hate the way Tomi Ahonen deletes criticizing comments from his blog. However, I plan to follow three of his principles: I’ll delete comments that are
Personal insults to someone
Duplicates
Spam
In addition, if you wish to challenge my previous posts, please comment to those.”
Mind posting your comment here then?
My comment is: “paid microsoft employee!”
Idk if that’s an insult, or he/she should be flattered. lol
I am. Your comment I have never seen, though. But I did make a copy-paste from here:
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/anonymous-ex-nokian-in-twitter-is-exnokian/comment-page-1/#comment-1428
Hope that’ll do.
THIS COMMENT FROM THAT BLOG IS GREAT: “Killing your bread and butter and shifting to a new platform, where you don’t have a ready made product yet.
And then having that touted saviour not qualified for upgrade to the next saviour WP8. Booyah.”
“And you have a phone that turned out to be a media darling, nokia n9, and what did muppet do?
Leak a “copycat N9″ a.k.a. Searay a.k.a. Lumia 800 so attention will rub off on that silly WP. And go on record to say the N9 is dead and you will focus on WP.
Very good.”
— Okay Janne, go, comment
Well, you call Elop a muppet (personal insult) in an article that does not have anything to do with Elop, so there’s plenty of reason to delete your comment.
I suggest you rewrite your comment without malicious undertone and post it on a blog post that considers Elop’s actions and you’re good to go.
Plus one.
Wah, I voliated the rules & regulations of that website and they deleted my comment, wah.
YOLO: Short comment, yes, Feb11 was a mistake. At the very least it should have happened differently. Big risk that was unfortunately realized.
BTW, I did say so at the time here on MNB. And back in Q1 of this year I again said failure of the transition was now evident.
All that is left is to see will Lumia fly or not. That is still open and the strategy there has merit too. But it may fail, of course.
Thank you for posting this! I’ve been reading Tomi’s articles for a few years now, and his last few months have given me the impression that he has something personal against Elop beyond Nokia. It’s one thing to criticize someone for having made mistakes but it’s another to start taking out personal attacks on him. It’s good to see that I’m not the only one losing respect for the credibility of his blog, but it also scares me how much power he has as a respected analyst to affect news reports and investor blogs. I fear Tomi might be doing some extra damage to Nokia through this personal onslaught.
+1
mistakes of the ceo affect thousands of people all over the world (mostly employees). how long people wants to tolerate ceo and his board when they make mistakes all the time? is anobody here who would be able to explain what has been done correctly last year on nokia? in my opinion nokia should forget about wp and starts making one or two meego phones. ovi store is more important than all lumias or 808. when ovi will gone nothing will be able to save nokia.
This guys argument seems to revolve around the fact Nokia was losing market share in 2010 and therefore, was failing before Elop fucked everything up. What he conveniently leaves out is Nokia was increasing it’s sales, revenues, profits, and average selling price in the run-up to Elops big announcement. By all accounts Nokia was EXTREMELY successful, it’s just that they were losing some ground to their competitors. Was the board right to want to stop giving away market share to the competition? Absolutely. Was Elop right to rip away the core of Nokias business for an untested operating system that they had to sell the companies soul for? Absolutely not.
Tomi’s statements are not invalid and this guy only proves that even when trying really hard to do so, it’s impossible to invalidate the truth. One just has to look between the lines and think for yourself.
Furthermore, we can extend the market share argument out to Microsoft Windows on the desktop. It too has been losing market share. Does that make Microsoft unsucessful? Should Microsoft abandon Windows and switch to Linux, it’s smallest competitor with very little market share on the consumer desktop?
It’s not about market share only, though, look at the profit numbers from my comment above. What use is selling an ok number of “smartphones” that don’t bring you real profit cause you have to sell them cheap enough for people to want them (the latter is what I understand from the numbers)? Nokia’s profit had gone down 26% Q4 2009 to Q4 2010, the average “smartphone” selling price by 17%.
The situation for desktop Windows is an entirely different one, but I’m not going to discuss that here.
This is not saying that WP is a success, we will only know at the end of the year or probably rather beginning of next year, but all I’m trying to say is that the decision to dump Symbian had nothing to do with conspiracy, but with real actual problems. Not that I personally care that much about that part, what I care about is people always bringing up this theory in this blog’s comments rather than discussing what went wrong (both with the old and the new strategy) and what we as Nokia fans would hope for in the future.
Hmm it appears like your site ate my first comment (it was super
long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog.
I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any suggestions for inexperienced blog writers? I’d
really appreciate it.