How Many Lumias Were Sold in the US Last Quarter? Probably Well Below Half a Million

| October 24, 2012 | 82 Replies

The following post doesn’t have any solid “official” numbers to support it, but it does a few to “guide” it towards the point I’m making; in other words this is a HUNCH; don’t prosecute me…please

Earlier today At&t launched their quarterly profits announcing total sales of 6.1 Million Smartphones; 4.7 Million of which were iPhones:

  • 6.1 – 4.7 = 1.4 Million Android, BB & WP Devices (combined).

The 1.4 Million devices are a combination of Windows Phone and Android devices Plus whatever minuscule sales they receive from BlackBerry; to give a bit more context to these numbers let’s look at the sales from Q2, which was the first quarter to include the Lumia 900 in its sales- in Q2 At&t sold 5.1 Million Smartphones, 3.7 million of which were iPhones

  • 5.1 – 3.7 = 1.4 Million (again) Android, BB & WP devices.
  • 1,400,00 – 600,000 (generously assuming that no Lumia 710s were sold by T-Mobile, and all 600K came from At&t) = 800,000 Android & BB devices

Nokia announced that the number of Lumias sold in Q2 in North America was close to 600,000 (900 + 710); although both quarters sold a similar number of non-iPhone devices the biggest difference between the two quarters lies in the fact that Q2 saw a HUGE advertising push for the Lumias in the US by both At&t and Nokia. They were the pride and joy of all At&t stores, and were given center stage; however in Q3 the Galaxy S3 was released on At&t which has proven to be a wild success. Also worth noting is that the 900 is not the only WP device carried on At&t, they also have the HTC Titan II and the Samsung Focus 2 (but for the sake of this post let’s pretend those didn’t get any sales).

To get a look at the number of non-WP or Apple devices At&t usually sells let’s go back one more quarter to Q1; pre-Lumia launch- in Q1 At&t sold 5.5 Million smartphones, 4.3 of which were iPhones:

  • 5.5 – 4.3 = 1.2 Million Android & BB Devices (ignoring any non-Lumia WP devices they carried).
So it’s safe to assume that At&t usually sells a bit over a Million Android devices a quarter, alongside their huge sum of iPhones, seeing only a dip of Android sales during Q2 when the Lumia got a significant push in advertising. Comparing the total number of Lumias sold worldwide in Q2 (4 Million) to those sold in Q3 Worldwide (2.9 Million) = Quarterly drop of 28%. Assuming that all countries shared the 28% drop in Lumia sales, that would mean that the US would have seen only 472,000 Lumia sales. However that fails to factor in the number of sales lost in the US due to the launch of the GS3 as well as the discontinuation of most advertising promotions. This is also neglecting the fact that Q3 saw the Lumias launching in multiple new countries including KSA, Lebanon, India and more; meaning the true decrease in US sales would be more than 28% to offset the new region sales.
Seeing as I’m no analyst in any shape or form (in other words don’t take my word for it); I suspect that of the 1.4 Million devices sold by At&t this quarter close to 1 Million (probably more) were android devices, leaving less than 400,000 to be split amongst the Lumias, other WP devices, and BB.

*Note: i neglected to factor in Lumia 710 sales, seeing as it didn’t receive much marketing and I couldn’t find any solid reference numbers.

-This is my first time attempting to interpret such numbers, so it’s quite possible my calculation logic is flawed; feel free to point it out below.

Category: aPPLE, Contract Prices, Editorial, HTC, iPhone, Lumia, Mango, News, Nokia, Opinion, Price Comparison, Special Edition, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Heyyo, names Ali- Currently a fourth year Dental Student from Chicago; studying in Jordan. I love all sorts of gadgets almost as much as I love my cookies! (Have: Green Nokia N8, Cyan Lumia 800, Black N9, Stormtrooper White Lumia 900, Black 808 PureView, Red Lumia 920). Follow my twitter handle '@AliQudsi' - no pressure. Thanks.

Comments (82)

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  1. ggg says:

    no hope for the ‘giant’ nokia

  2. Peter L says:

    Your reasoning is way more sound than Tomi’s, who’s supposed to be a real analyst. I think you did a great job.

    This would put the number of Lumia’s in North America around 1M up to date.

  3. Muerte says:

    Wow. You can either make these kind of calculations, or then read the number from Nokia’s interim report regarding 12/Q3.

    Just saying…

    http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q3e.pdf

  4. manu says:

    just wondering worldwide lumia sale is almost half of what icrap sells on a single carrier.

  5. Jelly MeeGo says:

    Windows Phone 8 is pretty much the same as Windows 7.5! The result will be the same or worser in the next 2-3 quarters. Not to mention iPhone 5, S3 and Note 2 are out.

    Nokia should have released an Android phone with MeeGo/Swipe UI skin buttonless front like Touchwiz and Sense.

    Windows Phone just sucks! Wake up Nokia!

    Nokia would be top 2 manufacturer if it sold Android phones!

    Even LG are making a profit according to news!

    • Pökö says:

      Its nothing like WP7 except the UI works as smooth as before.

    • Anders81 says:

      The funniest part of your comment is that in fact Nokia is today the 2nd biggest manufacturer of mobile phones :) Could be even number one but we don`t know since samedung doesn`t give out numbers!
      Profit making is another story. But if I were the rational consumer maybe I would but the best QUALITY for best PRICE product which without any question is Nokia Lumia right now. With the profits aaple and samedung is making you can easily see how much they are screwing the average Joe consumer :)

    • JGrove303 says:

      Worser is not a word. You were looking for worse. Bad, worse, worst.

      I’m attacking you grammar because your assumption that WP8 is just a rebadge is ludicrous.

      My buddy at Best Buy has had time with WP8. Hr’s born to get hatf for Android snd even he is willing to wait for the Lumias as opposed to jumping on a GSIII

      • deep space bar says:

        it’s the same friggin set of tiles how did get bored of widgets….TILES are boring……it’s a wall in sections…how do you not consider that not boring….. go look at your shower for as long as you can and you’ll see if you can stand WP or not

    • rafaelinux says:

      But.. android sucks D:, they should have stayed meego/symbian.. u.u

  6. dss says:

    It’s okay.. they are just helping out Microsoft a little bit, and then.. who knows, maybe back to rubber.

    Phenomenal iPhone sales in the US.. it shows you the power the carriers have here..

    http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2012/10/3q12-iphone-chart1-1351081199.jpg

  7. Alet Suverhy says:

    Logic looks proper, but correctness depends on how accurate are used data.

    Anyway it is surprising how low estimated number is. When compare it to population in US looks even more sad.

    After I have read some posts here I have believed it is a kind of best-selling staff in US. Especially when US customers in most number haven’t seen or even tried neither Symbian nor MeeGo, so in such a case that could be possible. Perhaps reality is just a bit different.

    Frankly I believe that mobiles sell because they are good and wanted, not because they are cheap, or price is lowered artificiality somehow IMHO.

  8. viktor von d. says:

    i think the at&t nokia lumia 900 did a good job in q2 and q3 even. nokia had only one phone and how many android handsets from how many manufacturers are there on at&t.there seems to be around 20 handsets and considering nokia had second spot in q2 behind the iphone and then the 3rd handset in q3 behind the iphone and samsung galaxy s3 i think it did pretty good.

    the major problem nokia had is that they only had one ”high end phone” with a exclusivity to at&T and one mid end on t mobile. now they keep the exclusive but at least a mid-range device is present on all 3 big carriers so that will definetely help numbers,also the fact that nokia is a more established now ion the american mind. but unfortunately it still isn’t enough considering the army of devices from samsung,htc,lg. if us carriers would start carry mext year devices like the 610,like the 808 and the other mid-range ”flame” that’s coming out then the nokia numbers will be very good in america

  9. Harangue says:

    It could easily be less when going by this sentence from The Verge;

    ‘..though, as usual, it didn’t differentiate between sales of new devices and activations of any used or unlocked phones that may have signed up for AT&T’s network.’

    So their could be a certain percentage of switchers in there, although I doubt it would result in any real significant numbers.

  10. Luisito says:

    MMM… Why this post, sorry but I don’t see why is important to know how many devices where sold in USA…

    • arts says:

      I dont know why too. :x

      • Sonny says:

        but if it was Symbian or MeeGo you guys would have been the first ones too comment on how crap they are. Geez I cant believe you people still believe in this all WP approach while Nokia has an amazing OS in MeeGo and an improving Symbian in their disposal!

        But no! it has to Microsoft.

        • arts says:

          You barking up the wrong tree dude.

          I think the slaes are good, just that the oS sucks and does more harm than good for Nokia.

        • Viipottaja says:

          well, they are in any case better than Nokia had for Symbian for many years here in the US. :P

          • Marc Aurel says:

            I don’t think that is true. While Symbian sales in the US were poor compared to other major smartphone OSes, the E71x and E73 still sold in the hundreds of thousands per quarter back when portrait QWERTY phones were still in fashion (2009-2010). The sales in Q2 this year were admittedly better than for a long time, but the Q3 sales were more like “business as usual” for Nokia in the US

            • nn says:

              Just before the switch Nokia sales were in the range of millions in North America. So 300,000 phones certainly isn’t business as usual. And that’s true even for the last year and half, AFAIK the Q3 number is by far the lowest for WP.

        • Jari says:

          Jolla: Here I come!!!

        • Luisito says:

          Not… I think that the best thing ever made by the man king is Symbian & SWIPE UI/UX…

          It’s I know this could become a the typical comment warfare zone

  11. swain says:

    It’s a safe bet to say only 250-300k Lumias were sold in US during last quarter.

    • Muerte says:

      Of course it is. It is written in the official Q3 report by Nokia. 300k is the number they gave, why should one question Nokia’s official reporting?

  12. krustylicious says:

    so basically after a year lumia is a massive FLOP.. Will nokia’s management wake up on christmas day thinking

    “oh my its all a bad dream and we’ve sold 2m lumias this quarter too ”

    Everyone said nokia’s path was wrong. The fake pr spin of being “sold out” the failure to accept that consumers don’t like wp.

    • stevebarker66 says:

      But customers DO like Lumia – the satisfaction ratings have always been impressive.

      The problem is so many people are now embedded in other ecosystems and used to their favourite apps.

      Nokia (and Microsoft) could not easily coerce Developers to invest in WP7 when they knew WP8 was just around the corner.

      I think Nokia were fully aware of this, but no-one was prepared for how hard it would be for WP to gain traction.

      Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but let’s remember that not even the most prolific critics of the Nokia/WP plan were aware of the limitations of WP7, or how different WP8 would be.

      In other word, those critics may well turn out to be right, but for the wrong reasons.

      Microsoft WILL make WP work, but that may be too long and too protracted for Nokia. That means they risk being bought out (Not by Microsoft, in my opinion – why would they need Nokia?) or will force them into looking at alternatives to WP.

      I am sure that there are Nokia Android prototypes within Nokia’s labs, and we’ve seen how well and how fast they have succeeded with Asha.

      Personally, I like WP. It has a lot going for it and IF it can gain traction over the next 12 months Nokia could survive this.

      But I also run Android devices and yes, I would be VERY interested in the prospect of a Nokia Android smartphone or tablet :-)

      • Harangue says:

        Indeed, while sales are nothing to write home about the satisfaction rate of Nokia/WP adopters is pretty damn high. The small amount of people I asked that bought a Lumia nearly all said they were never going to switch to something else. They just loved it.

        That in itself is a little glimmer of hope for Nokia. Nokia lost a lot of customers when they continued on with Symbian. Of all the people I know who had Symbian devices (ranging from S60v3/5 to S3) nearly all of them switched away to Androids or iPhones. They also practically vowed to never buy Nokia again because it was either; ‘not a real smartphone’ or ‘it basically sucked big time’

        The brand damage done bu underdelivering for years with Symbian really took effect. And it will take a while before that idea can be turned around.

        • Noki says:

          Sory if people were that happy with WP, sales would be going up, but no they are going overall down.

          Apart from the fact that I personally hate the thing, you guys should be asking yourselves how come sales are going down and not really up…

          Former nokia users still to this day prefer Symbian over Lumias, (not me saying its the sales numbers).

          I have said this from the beginning WP is a good UI experiment that will never pick up in end consumer. Its design by designers for designers, Joe user wants something apparently more accessible, more what he is.

          Monochromatic squares do not reflect what you are and the vibrant edges make them feel uncomfortable to users, this used to be User interaction design 1:1, but somehow it got diluted in the third wave of web powered design hipster, that invaded the UI/UX design trends of today. WP8 has improved some of the most glaring errors of WP7 but for the most part the concept is broken and will never work for mass consumption.

          • Marc Aurel says:

            I tend to agree, although I haven’t actually seen any user trials or formal UI research which would confirm your view about the tiles. UI research as a science still seems to be too much tied to the large corporations that actually sell the UIs to their customers, although there certainly is some independent scientific material available nowadays.

            What I do know is that I don’t particularly like the tile/Metro UI aesthetic and would never accept the WP7 version of it as my primary phone UI. Many people I know feel the same, but of course some others also like it a lot, so it has no wider meaning. The WP8 version seems to be improved, but as I have no access to preview devices I don’t know if I could find it truly usable or not.

            • stevebarker66 says:

              There are plenty of examples in the automotive, architectural and fashion worlds where straight lines and square profiles have been hugely popular over time.

              I think the basis for any artistic criticism of WP is rooted in the inability to use a wallpaper behind the tiles.

              On Android and Symbian this has been a feature for some time; my Wife, for example, loves the African Sunset live wallpaper on her SGS2: silhouetted beasts walking around her home screens(!)

              Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. For every buyer like my Wife there is a purist like me who keeps the wallpapers of his Galaxy Tab and Nexus7 as clear, plain and uncluttered as my Lumias.

              When all is said and done on this, the single best-selling smartphone of all time still offers minimal option for personalising the homescreen. That’ll be he iPhone, then :-)

              • Noki says:

                Architectural has hallways had a line of minimalist clean lines, Le Corbusier as a vibrant example of that…(dough in is case he balanced the sterile minimalism by a vibrant spacious “garden city”)
                But most of those clean minimalist austere like designs were confined to museums and other general propose buildings, still today many like those are made every day… the austere vibrant angles impose upon the user respect for the space (subconsciously its quite simple if you trip and fall you will probably hurt yourself on those angles).

                They however never made it to be popular in the housing market (except for some rather ugly state funded and unappreciated examples in eastern, behind the iron curtain countries). For your home you and most people want something received as comfortable, and safe (as in if I fall down the carpet floor will smooth my way down).

                I would love to have the Mies van der Rohe pavilion as my personal house but suspect most people would not.

                Ok this school became rather popular and was massified in to the general public by the Bauhaus that smartly removed the austere sharpens in house hold objects to create more comfortable objects. One of the areas most influenced by this was typography were we saw the burst of countless brilliant new type grotesque typefaces. (typographic design was probably one of the modernism first piratical use examples Akzidenz typeface dates back to 1896)

                That is the basis for most of WP design, clean austere typographic design…

                But every one should wonder what people like, wen so many use comic sans for their every day work documents (just the idea of that scares-me), what I’m trying to say is, Design must be made for the intended public not for designers, if WP wanted to be a massively popular product they should have done something that massively it would work, not something that appeals to only a few…

                A more understandable example, put a MacDonald’s and a fancy french gourmet restaurant side by side, witch one you think will have more customers????

        • manu says:

          it was the other way aound in may regions like india.
          People qhere totally disappointed with lumia.it dont have simple things like checking ussd or copying number from a message etc also that crap zune.

      • zlutor says:

        you know, as hobby, we have developed a mobile app (http://store.ovi.com/content/317102?clickSource=publisher+channel&channel=&pos=1) with my friend, having REALLY good customer reviews.

        Still we have sold cca. couple of deozens of it.

        Is it a success? I guess not really…

      • nn says:

        Total nonsense. It was proved repeatedly and beyond any doubt that consumers don’t like WP at all. If it was that good, you would expect the sales would grow and to way bigger share just by the word of mouth, not to mention the billions wasted on marketing of this OS over last two years.

        The most favourable way (to MS) you can reconcile this is that there is 2 % of population who actually like and buy WP phones. They are rabid fanboys who will immediately flock to internets, push consumer reviews which even iPhone can only envy, and post comment bellow almost every article about WP where they describe how wonderfully fresh and new WP is.

        But it doesn’t change the fact that they are only 2 % minority and the rest is not interested in WP.

        There are probably people in Nokia who are toying with Android, but they are doing it against Elop policy. And to fully bring another OS to market would take another two years, without taking into account other obstacles erected by Elop. It’s time which Nokia doesn’t have, and it’s the crux of Elop no-plan-b: it’s either WP or Nokia’s death, so we have to give everything to MS, because otherwise we are dead.

        Outsiders didn’t know about the WP7/8 limitations, but Elop did. And it actually even doesn’t matter what exactly will kill them, because it was obvious that the execution wouldn’t be flawless and there will be number of problems, perhaps even big problems.

        Which is why you never gamble everything on single bet, especially not when the bet is MS with its abysmal track record in mobiles and partnerships. But Elop and BoD apparently ran with the assumption that WP is sure success, everything they and MS do will be perfect.

      • Tom says:

        Satisfaction rating is subjective. How do you know they are not fanboys(they will be satisfied with whatever) or biased surveys. Only objective satisfaction rating is retention rate. As and when WP is used by general public(not fanboys), the retention rating will tell teh story. So far adoption is only fanboys and joe public does not know what WP is.

  13. Shaun says:

    Nice set of calculations but you could have saved yourself a lot of effort by just reading Nokia’s quarterly report. They state 300,000 in that.

  14. Isn’t this a good thing? 300,000 people bought a Lumia device in America when they knew (or maybe didn’t) that it wasn’t going to be upgraded to Windows Phone 8? It has also been out quite a while now and if you look at is as a whole, 300,000 is a fairly big percentage for one phone (pretty much) out of all of the other phones at&t sells. That 1.2m would be split between a very large amount of phones, of which the Lumia 900 was 25% of them all?

    Am I missing something here?

  15. NATS says:

    wait ’til you got hold of the 920s and the 820/810/822..you’ll regret buying an iphone5 and SGS3.. i just got hold of the three and they were really impressive! the mix radio is really impressive and the sound in the new lumias were really great!

  16. Yoda says:

    deep space bar, I really feel sorry for you!
    You seem to have a lot of personal problems………

  17. Keith too says:

    Hey Aliqudsi, you were also forgetting about the Lumias sold on Rogers, Telus and 1 or 2 other of the smaller carriers in Canada. Not that it was any great amount but I know they were selling some because I saw a few of them around.

  18. Rinslowe says:

    considering they let the cat out of the bag early on for no WP8 support. Yeah I can see how that happened…

  19. stylinred says:

    the numbers would be lower than Q2 so somewhere below 300,000 lumias

  20. s3m44 says:

    Sad to see these poor sales results for Nokia. The Lumia line is having a good outlook, brilliant screen, and great map app.

    The biggest drawback is again, the OS. Really can’t see any improvement from Symbian to Windows Phone.

    Ecosystem? No more delay in release day? Nokia exclusive UI? Sorry, none of them come true.

    • Alet Suverhy says:

      On Windows by definition can’t be any Nokia exclusive software – that is Windows, and it treat every hardware supplier like Nokia or HTC or ZTE as the same OEM supplier. Windows is like a communism – equal sharing of the same poorness.

      Elops supposes Americans creates trends but he is wrong. Only in America you can find huge road cruisers – it looks well in movies but most probably for driving a customer will buy something practical. US is a kind of exotic country. Interesting but not everyone treat this as a paradise on the Earth. And mobiles there are really poor IMHO. Eg. a long long time they were not able to use SMS – hahahaha, trends creators ;)

      • Viipottaja says:

        Wha? Lumia’s already have many pieces of Nokia exclusive apps.

        As for mobiles being poor in the US… really??? :D Heard of Android or Apple? :p

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