Nokia to Announce Q4 2012 Results on January 24, 2013

| December 12, 2012 | 111 Replies

Nokia have just released a press statement regarding its financial calendar, in it are the expected release dates for their quarterly earnings for Q4 2012 as well as Q1,2,3 of 2013. They are as follows:

Planned publication dates for interim reports
- fourth quarter and full year 2012 report: January 24, 2013
- first quarter 2013 interim report: April 18, 2013
- second quarter 2013 interim report: July 18, 2013
- third quarter 2013 interim report: October 17, 2013

So we’ve heard a lot of numbers flying around so I think I’ll go ahead and share my predictions At least 7 million Lumias (regardless of WP 7 or 8) sold, with over 10 Million if the 920, 820 and 620 are fully released in China (with availability) within the next few days. However that’s highly unlikely so I’ll stick to 7 million +/- 500K with greater sales in Q1 2012; anyone agree?

Source Thanks for the tip rishabh

Category: Lumia, Maemo, MeeGo, Nokia, Symbian, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, my name's Ali- Currently a fifth (and final) year Dental Student from Chicago; studying in Jordan. I love all sorts of gadgets almost as much as I love my cookies! Be sure to follow my Twitter handle @AliQudsi and Subcribe to my Youtube for the latest videos - no pressure. Thanks.
  • Janne

    Damn, a week later than I anticipated. :) Anyone got idea when HTC/Samsung numbers come? Or was it they don’t release device numbers… Windows 8/WP sales from Microsoft? All those should be interesting with this.

    • viktor von d.

      i hope it will be good news. i just saw the stock price is at 3,9 dollars now(i think last week it was 2,9 ? ). maybe we will see a 10 dollar price point after the q4 earnings report and 20 dollars hopefully by the end of the year 2013 if they are able to ramp up sales

  • http://chriswwwright.wordpress.com Chris W

    I was having think about what these numbers maybe, and also estimate between 7million and 10million Lumia sales. Right, stick me neck on the line; 9 million, which wouldn’t be too bad.

  • JGrove303

    HTC and Samsung don’t even register into anyone’s predictions on numbers. Except the few thousands guys and gals that couldn’t wait for a Lumia or were lured by the wafe size or color, everyone wants or has a Lumia. Ativ Tablet is out, but you can probably count on both hands how many have it globally.

  • rishabh

    plz make correction in my name’s spelling.:-(

  • Spede oli aliarvostettu

    It will be extremely interesting to see how many WP8 phones Nokia is able to sell. I’ve seen estimations beginning from 1 million up to 15 million units.

    Nokia’s stock price has been going up while Apple’s has been dropping. This should be good time for Nokia fans. After all the stock price is something that seems to matter a great deal for the fans.

    It’s also nice to see if Nokia is going to count Asha phones as smartphones. They do perform lots of tasks only smartphones used to do only some time ago. They are also running java programs like Android phones. They have an UI capable of beating the Symbian Belle what it comes to the smoothness. Multitasking is something they don’t have but it’s questionable if that’s really a problem when the phone is cheap and it does what it is promised to do.

    • MOOking

      um there is also google and nokia’s stocks are based on Microsoft’s software remeber that

    • incognito

      If they count WP-based devices, especially WP7, as smartphones there really is no reason why they shouldn’t count Asha line as smartphones as well. It does look a bit like cheating, tho, as I’m quite sure that the analyst houses wont count the Asha line in smartphones to give Nokia an artificial boost in the smartphone race, but at that point we’re discussing semantics.

      Also, I don’t think Nokia will be separating the WP8 from WP7 Lumias in their report so we’ll have to rely on market analysts to give us a rough breakdown between the two.

  • Keith too

    I think 7 million is on the high-end of expectations considering the spotty availablity and how late in the quarter it is for the WP8 devices. Though the low end WP7 devices are more popular in some European countries than I anticipated so it is possible they could bump up the quarter a bit. I hope it is 7 million but the lack of availablity has me doubting. I agree that China could be interesting for Q1 and beyond.

    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

      7 million WP8 phones would still be more than those 5 million Symbian^3 devices sold in Q4 2010. And hey, remember that it would be more unit sales Symbian^3 did. After all, it shouldn’t be about market share because that didn’t matter when Symbian was losing market share in Q4 2010. Pretty funny, really.

      Actually it’s the ASP that’s going to tell how well they are doing.

      • viktor von d.

        huh? 5 million symbian 3 in q4 2010? i don’t think that’s right. n8 sold like v4 million that quarter alone didn’t it?

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu

          Actually Nokia never told how many units N8 sold in Q4 2010. All they told was that they shipped 5 million Symbian^3 phones.

          That 4 million N8′s was probably invented/fabricated/whatever by Tomi Ahonen. He likes to invent/fabricate/whatever numbers so that those numbers can support his opinions.

          • Peter L

            That 4M came from Inderes. It was their estimate of possible N8 sales during Q4 2010.

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu

              Interesting. Tomi Ahonen was promoting that number as a fact. Do you have any idea where Inderes got that number?

              • Peter L
                • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                  Incredible! So Tomi Ahonen was basing his claim about 4 million N8′s sold on that report? It was made before the quarter ended and it’s not based on data acquired from Nokia.

                  It’s mostly based on web search activities and information given by the chip manufacturer. Information that was given out months earlier! An estimation of the future chip sales!

                  So what Tomi did was probably taking the high end from that estimate of 3,5-4 million and deciding that 80% of the Symbian^3 sales had to be N8 sales because those guys gave out such an estimate. Surely those number were so nice that he just had to make them to be real.

                  So, Tomi didn’t invent those numbers but he pretty much actually fabricated the data about 4M units by combining Nokia data and some guesses from those guys.

                  It would be nice to know how well the N8 sold but it appears that the claim about 4 million N8 units sold in Q4 2010 isn’t based on any actual facts.

                  • Pierre

                    Any prognoses of future are just data fabricating. Point is that some knows how to do this and are accurate, while the rest guess only, like in most posts.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                      That’s true but in this case Tomi was not forecasting future. He claimed that 4 million N8 were actually sold during Q4 2010. That’s real fabrication with numbers not connected to the reality.

                      There was no actual proof that this happened.

                    • Janne

                      There is plenty where that came from on this analysis site:

                      http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com

    • viktor von d.

      7 million wp8- hell no. maybe 4-5 million wp8. but wp7+wp8 will probably sum up to 7 million this quarter

      • dss

        That would be amazing..

  • MOOking

    everyone stfu and stop speculating…shit is annoying

    • viktor con d.

      i liked your old name better. this one soundsa like you are the king of cows. moooo

      • MOOking

        who are you even talking about ?

  • Janne

    I have no prediction on Lumia numbers as of this moment (maybe I will in ten minutes if I think about it), but since my “trajectory” post was already discussed in recent postings, let’s paste my June 13th, 2012 message here. This was before Q2 results and before WP8 announcement. Mind you, this is not a prediction, just what I thought Nokia should show as healthy progress (vs. unhealthy):

    I already said above Feb11 was a mistake – I would’ve done different, I thought so at the time and said it here too. All I’m saying it is too soon to say whether Lumia will be a failure.

    I’m not saying 10 million is feasible or will happen. I’m simply saying that something in that ballpark would signal healthy growth for Lumia for me.

    People asked to put it in numbers and I did, barring of course the exception that WP8 or Nokia’s WP8 devices are late and not available in Q4 in good numbers.

    All I’m looking for in Lumia sales is a sustained trajectory up. Q3 may be a disaster because of the WP8 factor, or maybe it won’t be, but if Q3 sees Lumia flat-line or drop, then Q4 must do significantly better.

    To repeat, I’d be happy with this progress:

    Q1: 2+ million (known)
    Q2: 3-4 million
    Q3: 4-6 million*
    Q4: 10 million (ballpark)

    *) But because WP8 factor may hit Q3 hard, I’d be okay with anything in the 1-6 million range as long as Q4 shows a huge jump.

    With these numbers no question Lumia is heading into right direction and unless acquired Nokia will probably pull through. It still means 2013 must show good growth too, and the feature phone business is a different question to measure, but for smartphones Nokia would be well on its way.

    If the numbers are something significantly else, then we’ll take a look at them and see what it means. But I’ll say this: If Q4 sees good WP8 availability (so no delays), but Lumia is still treading all of Q2-Q3-Q4 only in the 2+ million range, then it is out with Elop and in with a new strategy.

    So, it all comes down to the trajectory of Lumia. Is it going up at a significant rate? It needs to. If it does, it may work out. If not, time for a new plan.

    http://mynokiablog.com/2012/07/13/nielsens-q2-2012-us-mobile-subscriber-market-share-estimates/comment-page-1/#comment-615255

    After that post we became to learn Q2 was 4 million, Q3 was 2.9 million and that Q4 availability was heavily delayed, putting a spanner into my expectations.

    • dss

      Well the “availability” card can be played in several different ways really … it does sound better if you say “we couldn’t keep up with demand” than to say “demand was weak, so we didn’t order as many” ..

      I am not saying that the 920/820 are not in demand..

      • Janne

        Sure, it can. But one thing is clear: The new models came out, due to the WP8 schedule, way late in Q4. Originally in June my expectations were based on a full or near full Q4 WP8 sales quarter… We were expecting WP8 possibly by September at that time, if I recall.

        So, without a full Q4 behind it, and without anything like a real global Q4 launch for WP8 Lumia, I don’t know how much we can expect from Q4. However, combined with the aforementioned (how did W8 and WP8 do overall) and Nokia’s Q1 guidance, I’d say Q4 report will give us a splendid view on the success or failure of Elop’s Lumia strategy. One way or the other.

        • Tom

          Nokia/Elop very well knew before going all in with WP that they will be dependent on MS for software release. It’s out of their control. A caveman could figure that out. Don’t blame WP8 being late now.

          What matters is Nokia’s number. WP released late or never released is immaterial.

          • Tom

            Also what matters is profitability of smart phone division. That’s where Nokia is losing big and it’s the future. The number 1 company by market cap makes most of it’s money from smart phones.

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu

              That number 1 company also surpassed Nokia in smartphone revenues back in 2009. They also surpassed Nokia in profits.

              It was downhill for Nokia all the way from that point. Those losses were pretty much inevitable.

              • tom

                Blame everything but your beloved leader. What good is a leader is if he lead the company from highly profitable to billion dollar losses. Elop is responsible.

                • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                  Nokia was destined to collapse with the Symbian OS. Didn’t you know that they lost 5 points of market share in a single quarter before Elop took the charge?

                  That continued to happen in Q4 2010 despite the release of the Symbian^3. The decline was an ongoing process. Nokia was able to keep up the unit sales as long as the market kept growing. After that it was no longer possible because the market share was coming down.

                  Symbian was no longer competitive. There was no way Nokia could have avoided losses if they had continued with Symbian and Meego.

                  It’s nice how people want to forget the declining market share. That collapse started before Elop, so it’s not very convenient to blame him for starting it.

                  • MOOking

                    WRONG symbian was growing but slowly since elop didn’t wanna push it and how also he was an ex microsoft employee -___-

                    • Peter L

                      They are talking about market share which ABSOLUTELY went down almost 20% before WP strategy was announced. This can’t be denied, it’s a FACT.

                      You are probably talking about sales, though. Sales were growing, yes. But only about 1M per quarter when the competition was growing 3-4M per quarter. That is a horrible position to a manufacturer.

                    • GordonH

                      Nice business logic Peter L .
                      /s

                    • Peter L

                      It’s a losing battle, so the logic is sound.

                  • Tom

                    Symbian was not competitive. No one saying so. It was holding the fort and paying the bills. You know what it means to be profitable. Now Mr Elop choose no market share loser WP as exclusive, and Nokia has been losing money ever since.

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                      Android was an option, but Nokia didn’t chose that one. Probably because they were not allowed to replace Google Maps with the maps Nokia is offering. That’s just traditional arrogance from Nokia. They want to control the platform. No, I don’t know how they think they are controlling WP.

                      Symbian sales collapsed in 2010, 2011 and 2012 mostly just because it was no longer competitive. That was inevitable with or without the burning platform memo. That memo probably cut a small slice from the market share but nothing more. Symbian was paying the bills but no matter what Elop or anyone else did, it was no longer able to do that.

                      Just look what was happening.

                      http://dominiescommunicate.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/nokia_market_share_prediction.png

                      Elop is not responsible for the collapse of Symbian. It collapsed because it was no longer competitive.

                    • Noki

                      “Elop is not responsible for the collapse of Symbian. It collapsed because it was no longer competitive.”
                      I will agree that symbian was dead, just like BB6/7 but look how that went sybian sales that used to be 4 times as much as far worse bb/7 are now reduced to zero wile BB still manages to sell tens of millions completely decrepit BB’s. And will probably outlive nokia…

                    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                      That’s because BB has something it’s good at. Symbian was good at being cheap but when that failed, the sales collapsed. Can’t blame Elop for that.

                      Symbian just didn’t sell any longer because too cheap products were shipping with Android. Symbian’s market share was already collapsing, long before Elop.

          • Janne

            Tom:

          • Janne

            Nokia/Elop very well knew before going all in with WP that they will be dependent on MS for software release. It’s out of their control. A caveman could figure that out. Don’t blame WP8 being late now.

            I think these are two separate issues, though. The success of the strategy analysis is not determined by some arbitrary number, but by the quantitative combined with the qualitative – until we ar at a point where quantitative tells the full story. A constrained/delayed Q4 alone probably won’t (but with the help of some other data we’ll get there).

            Sure, we should hold Nokia management responsible for their fails (e.g. mismanaged transition from Symbian) and the flaws of the strategy (such as having to wait for WP8), but that isn’t really a measure on will Lumia succeed.

            I do think the Q4 report (including Q1 guidance and external data on WP8/W8 overall sales) will answer this, but we must be realistic in the interpretation. If something comes out late and with limited availability, there is still potential not yet realized and that must be factored in. That’s why I put this disclaimer in my original June post.

            We’ll do the factoring come Q4 results, as will the market, don’t you worry. :)

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu

              While the Symbian transition was indeed mismanaged, it’s very questionable if that was actually a major reason for the collapse of the market share.

              There were estimations that Nokia’s market share for Q1 2011 was going to be 24% and that number was predicted before the announcement to drop Symbian. The actual market share for Q1 2011 was 24%. That was just another 5 points drop. Same thing was happening in Q4 2010 and Q3 2010.

              Further drops in the market share were just something that was going to happen because there was nothing to stop it from happening.

              Symbian was doomed. Can’t blame Elop for that.

              • Janne

                I agree on the Symbian was doomed part.

                MeeGo, who knows, could have worked.

                • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                  According to Muropaketti, it’s very likely that there was lots of problems with Meego. It was said that they got N9 released because they no longer developed the platform but only one phone, the N9.

                  Besides, there would have been very little software support for Meego. Qt was never really ready to provide any real migration path since there was only very few Qt applications for Symbian. It’s true that there could have been more of them, but it’s very hard to believe that would have been enough. The real development on Qt applications (masses) was only starting to happen so there was next to nothing to port from Symbian.

                  Adding Android support would have been a problem because there was no way Nokia could have added access to the Google Play. Running Android apps requires lots of processing power and N9 was not nearly as powerful as the best Android phones. Too little processing power makes the Android apps to lag as happens on the low end Android phones.

                  Nokia would have been alone with Meego because N9′s UI is not open source.

                  It would have been very hard to make Meego succeed.

                • Tom

                  I would say this, let Nokia put Android on same hardware and give it same marketing money as WP. I am not counting how much MS spends on WP, they can spend 10 time on WP if they choose, just Nokia’s portion of marketing money. Sell both devices at same price and let’s see what sells more and makes more profit.

                  Nokia could have choose to do that. I know Elop will not do that in his life time. Either he is delusional or insane, I am not sure. May be he has other motives, I don’t know.

                  I am not saying Nokia should have choose Android. I would go so far as saying Nokia should not for long term, but for transitional period. They should have meego as own OS for long term.

                  May be Elop is blind as not to be able to see far into future or his contract is only 2 years and he is gone. WP only strategy is bad from the start. Combine that to Bing and IE, Nokia lost any goodwill they had in the market place.

                  • Spede oli aliarvostettu

                    You forget that Nokia has always been a very arrogant company. They always had only one OS they gave any real resources for.

                    First that was Symbian, then it was Meego for a very brief time and when Meego didn’t deliver on time, they wanted to get a new OS.

                    This strategy was not invented by Elop. It was there all the time. It just wasn’t in Nokia’s “soul” to have two operating systems. This may be because for years Nokia has been saving from everything. Components, salaries, R&D and naturally operating systems. They probably figured out that it would be a great idea to focus only on one OS.

                    But it wasn’t Elop who had that idea. It was there all these years.

                    You never wondered why Apple had such a smooth UI while Nokia was offering products like 5800, N97 and N8? None of those were master plans from Elop. Nokia saved some money from components and OS development just because they figured out that Nokia fans will tolerate an inferior user experience from the UI.

                    When people no longer wanted that inferior product called Symbian, it was to late.

            • Tom

              Late release of WP8 is definitely a factor, but it was a known factor. When you do risk analysis, you look at all these factors. If Elop could not do that, he is not fit to be a leader and for the position he is in.

              I agree Q4 results will clear lot of things. I don’t believe in Nokia’s guidance, at least till Elop is in charge. He will fabricate anything to show WP in positive light. I still remember how Nokia was going to sell 150 million Symbian post his burning platform and how WP would take world by storm. Micro$it can’t reach even 2% market share now.

    • Anders81

      That was the post I remembered reading, and I was just having fun with your 10m estimate in the earlier thread, sorry for that :)

      Now my best estimate for q4 on all Lumias is 7m. 5m wp7,5 and 2m wp8. However it’s very difficult to make forecasts since Elop gave so much room in his q3 statement, -6% and +-4% and so far there hasn’t been anything official that it would be otherwise. With this much moving space I think we are going to hear something soon and tomorrow happens to be the traditional date for Nokia’s profit warning if it is to come.
      I am heavily invested on this stock but in any case I’m for the long haul. Hope for the best and fuck the worst.

  • BellGo

    This will be interesting to watch. Honestly, if the strategy is still not paying off, then I’d say that that is it. Sure we could make the argument to wait for WP-X+1, but I think we are well past that…

    • http://twitter.com/haranguemnb Harangue

      THe only problem I see with this is, then what? The only viable option IMHo is to start producing other devices on the side, say Androids. Problem with that is, if they want a fast turn around they will need to use existing HW otherwise it won’t matter anymore.

      Problem with that is, MS might have some kind of clause included in the contract that might prevent that.

      Interesting times for sure.

      • incognito

        If Nokia was to go stock Android, they shouldn’t have much trouble adapting the latest versions to the Lumia 920/820 hardware given that a plenty of Androids are running on virtually the same HW platform. Now, rewriting their software and possibly custom-skinning it would take quite a bit of time, and time is something Nokia doesn’t have in abundance.

        • Tom

          I would say put Android on same hardware and lets see what sells better.

    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

      This is nothing new. Nokia is all about failing after 2007.

      If WP8 fails, Nokia will tell people to wait for the next thing.

      When WP7 failed, Nokia asked people to wait for WP8.

      When Symbian^3 failed, Nokia asked people to wait for WP7.

      When N97 failed, Nokia asked people to wait for the Symbian^3.

      When Nokia failed to kill the iPhone, Nokia asked people to wait for the next great smartphone.

      When Nokia failed to convince the people that iPhone was insignificant, they prepared the people to see how Nokia will kill it.

      When the iPhone was released, Nokia laughed at it claiming there was really nothing competitive in it.

      • Irishmarius

        yet here i am in 2012 reading your post on nokia 920, which is a far as i am convinced is a far better phone then the latest iphone.
        so nokia must be doing something right :)

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu

          That’s why I wrote “if WP8 fails”. So far there is no hard evidence about WP8 failing.

          Enjoy your 920. You are not the only one enjoying WP8.

          • Noki

            he is not the only one, just one of the few…

        • sdf

          iphone is far more better than your 920 even without innovation

          • KeiZka

            What is this strange world you seem to live in?

            • Spede oli aliarvostettu

              Reality?

              There is no “best phone”, just good phones which may be best phones for someone. Not for everyone.

              The iPhone 5 is a good phone and so is Lumia 920. I had some doubts about the 920 but lots of people seem to be fine with it. It remains to be seen if it’s a good sport what it comes to the Nokia’s revenues. It’s perfectly clear that iPhone provides Apple great revenues. Let’s hope 920 will do the same for Nokia.

  • belle and jolla beat lumia 920

    no one talk about 920 here in singapore

  • N9

    Given that Nokia as 8 lumia devices on the market right now I would say that anything below 8 million is pathetic for the holiday season and all….

  • incognito

    While we’re at predictions, my guesstimate would be about 6M Lumias tops, with further declining ASP indicating that only Lumias that sell in considerable numbers are the 510, 610 and 710. When it comes to the top-of-the-line offer, especially the WP8 line, I very much doubt they will sell more than 1M of those despite the (artificial?) shortage of the Lumia 920 and all those glowing ‘sold out’ articles (after all, we heard the same story for the Lumia 900).

    Given the Lumia 920′s price, if ASP for the Lumia line doesn’t rise significantly in Q4’12 it will paint much more accurate picture on the actual sales of that touted high-demand device.

    The Asha line will probably once again, as in Q3, save the bacon, but I don’t expect to be nearly of the same level of significance.

    If I haven’t sold my Nokia stock quite a while ago, I’d wait for about a week before they release the Q4 numbers – even in the most rosy scenario the stock price will not rise significantly, where on the contrary if my guesstimate is true it’s in for a sharp drop.

    On a more happy note, I’m almost certain that Elop will be out of Nokia in 2013 one way or the other.

    • Francis

      My figure even lower than that, around 3.5M-4M Lumia sold only for Q4.

      The reason is very simple: Q3 only 2.9M, and Q4 920 and 820 come very late, and people don’t want to buy Lumia 900 & 800 due to WP8 upgrade issue. IMO, all existing WP7.5 Lumia at best only can sell 50% of Q3 = 1.5M, plus maximum WP8 Lumia on Q4 ~2-2.5M = 3.5M-4M ONLY.

      Nokia, may still able to sale 7M Smartphone, but the other 50% is from Belle Phone.

      If Nokia willing to release 1-2 Belle FP2 phone with Lumia style hardware (say 4.5″ screen), i think it will still can create good sale !

      • incognito

        I don’t think that releasing Belle phones at this point would do any significant good for them – if people are not buying WP7 devices (except at a throw-away prices) due to planned obsolescence, they certainly wouldn’t be buying Symbian devices which are declared dead & burred by their own maker.

        If Nokia doesn’t succeed with the WP, which to me is the most likely scenario, they will have no other option but to try to jump on the Android bandwagon – they’ve burned all alternative bridges they could use to get back to safety and they are out of options. For a while now, the only option for Nokia is to play the high-risk game.

        I’m not even saddened (if one can have any emotions for a virtual entity such as a company in the first place) any more because of the situation Nokia has find itself in – they’ve brought it upon themselves despite thousands of voices telling them that what they are attempting to do is a shear lunacy. They now reap what they sow.

    • Janne

      incognito: You think 510 manages to sell significantly on Q4? I wonder how well it is available.

      Another interesting question relating to ASP is how well and widely has the 800/900 “fire sale” played out. In Finland dropping those prices in early Q4 boosted Lumia sales significantly here apparently, but then again it might be just a local phenomenon.

      • incognito

        Significantly, no, I do think that the 610 will remain the most selling Lumia as in Q3, but the 510 will be enough to offset the lessened sales of 710 and to boost the overall sales a few notches. It would no doubt be sold in much higher quantities in Q1’13.

        As for Lumia 800/900 “fire sale”, IIRC high price drops started in the last month of Q3 and it appears it didn’t have a significant effect on Q3, so nobody knows how it will reflect in Q4. Either way, Finland is way too small and way too specific market to make any kind of global judgement.

        • Janne

          Obviously Finland is too small to matter, I asked because I haven’t paid attention on whether or not similar pricing has happened elsewhere (enough to make a difference).

          I believe in Finland the fire sale started or at least really caught on only in October, so no effect for Q3.

    • Tom

      Considering the damege he has done, no ceo would be better than Elop as CEO. I’ll be happy for Nokia the day Elop is kicked out.

  • sdf

    bad news for current nokia management is good news for nokia

    • Matti

      Not really.

      Nothing left for a new management to do. Its either A.) being a small MS OEM or B). going bankrupt if plan A doesn’t work.

  • Fred

    1st prediction:

    WP8: 4,5M (low supply can not meet high demand)
    WP7: 2M (price cuts pushing sales)
    Symbian: 1,5M (low supply, low demand)

    Total WP sales: 6,5M
    Total smartphones sales: 8M

    2nd prediction (when in February Gartner will publish Q4 mobile OS sales):

    Android: 140M
    iOS: 40M
    WP: 10M (= 6,5M Nokia + 3,5M others)
    Blackberry: 9M
    Other: 8M

    So in Q4 WP sales will overtake Symbian and Blackberry sales. WP will be officially the 3th ecosystem in terms of sales.

    • Spede oli aliarvostettu

      Predicted Q4 sales for Symbian and Meego devices if Nokia never focused on WP.

      9M Symbian devices with ASP less than 100€.
      2,7M Meego devices with ASP of 250€.
      No WP sales.

      Extremely heavy losses because of the development costs. Lower unit sales and ASP expected for Q1 2013.

      • Janne

        Thinking about that is, actually, a very, very scary but possible scenario. Gave me the chills more than anything with WP strategy, that’s for sure.

        But luckily we have the BlackBerry proxy to follow! We’ll see how RIM manages and we’ll get to have some insight into could Nokia have made MeeGo work.

        We’ll need longer than Q4 calendar results for that, though… Maybe RIM Q4 fiscal? ;)

        • Fred

          Exactly. RIM maintains its own OS and so chose the opposite strategy. In that way it is interesting to follow RIM.

          Personally I don’t think RIM will make it. Some die-hard fans will buy the BB10 giving RIM some sales flare up, but on the long run it will not be able to compete with MS (core business = OS).

          You know, I even think WP will be the first ecosystem within a few years, overtaking iOS and Android. But anyway, as long as Lumia sales are stronger then the global smartphone growth there is hope. Q1 will be the real test :-)

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu

          With the old strategy, Nokia might have been in deep troubles. Current troubles are just medium compared to that.

          Just think about it. Thousands and thousands of developers developing the aging Symbian capable of selling only small quantities low end phones. Vast amount of Meego developers shipping one phone a year as it was planned. Meego phones with a minimal software support because Qt was never catching up. The story was that it was going to take of in the next quarter. Just like anything Nokia does. All the good is happening in the future. Never in the present time.

          People are claiming that the market share would have stabilized. But what would have stopped the decline when major releases were not able to do that?

          Nokia was dying with Symbian and Meego should have been released in 2010. Even that could have been too late. Android was already advancing fast.

          • Noki

            before all of this Nokia was 4 times the size of blackberry in smartphone area, and bb6/7 is far worse than symbian, right now nokia is half of BB in that area… BB as managed the transition in a far worse way than nokia with a far worse OS, BB10 is for the most part a harmatan running on QNX with a android compatibility layer, BB managed to keep much of its user base without sending them to android unlike Nokia that jumped in to a burning dead ship WP7 and now tries to jump start again with wp8 from 10th place in the smartphone manufacturers.

        • Tom

          Blackberry will be a somewhat a proxy, but not very close. Nokia had a widely praised product on market 2 years back, blackberry has now and Android has gone to about 70%. Android didn’t have that kind of clout when N9 released. Also, RIM is not match for Nokia’s resources, at least 2 years back.

          • Noki

            You realize that if BB makes it and survives with the transition on a way worse condition than nokia was wen nokia failed theirs, it will vastly prove that trashing your user base is maybe not a great idea…

            FACT BB is now larger than nokia in the smartphone area and bb is the third ecosystem.

            • Tom

              “FACT BB is now larger than nokia in the smartphone area”

              That speaks volume. Nokia is now the 10th smartphone vendor if I recollect properly. All the Elop lovers don’t seem to understand that. Nokia was in far better position to compete in market place than RIM, they were the leader in volume. RIM now has a higher probability to survive than Nokia, thanks to general Elop.

              • Noki

                well many of them are paid to be here astrofunding the only solution that pays them to be here…

                (note its not valid for all WP fans here, Janne a glaring example of a true wp fan, but you notice some pasterns in some people that come here with staged and coordinated arguments)

                • spacemodel

                  No doubt about that.

                • Peter L

                  You really should stop visiting the Tomi Ahonen blog, that place will mess you up. Seeing paid astroturfers in a blog like this is nothing more than some weird form of paranoia.

      • GordonH

        “Extremely heavy losses because of the development costs. Lower unit sales and ASP expected for Q1 2013.”

        Let me repeat
        Symbian development cost must less then the licensing cost of WP.
        Let me give u an example:
        If nokia sold 100 million smartphones
        Symbian “suggested” R&D cost $1 billion
        $10 per device
        Ms will charge more than $10 per smartphone
        usually around $15
        100million smartphones
        Total cost $1.5 billion
        Now MS might pay something for licensing maps etc. But Nokia could have earned more from holding their own OS by selling apps, music etc.
        Now my boy about Meego, oh dear cost much much lesser .

        • Spede oli aliarvostettu

          You have one critical error in that story of yours.

          Nokia was no longer able to sell 100 million smartphones with Symbian. Didn’t you know that Symbian was losing 5 points market share every quarter since Q3 2010? They would have been very lucky if they were able to sell 10 million Symbian phones in a quarter with ASP less than 100€.

          What would have stopped the collapse of the market share?

          Android was already killing Symbian back in 2010 because Nokia was no longer able to drop prices to be competitive.

          Besides developing Symbian was extremely slow and it lags too much without a good hardware. I have an 808 and it’s not lag free with 1,3Ghz processor. Symbian may use less power but the problem is, that it doesn’t offer performance for the UI.

          • GordonH

            “Symbian “suggested” R&D cost $1 billion”
            “suggested” means things could have been a lot cheaper dumbo.

            And dumbo boy, meego was going to make OS development a lot lot cheaper then licensing WP. Try using your brains to calculate.

            And incase you question why i called you dumbo boy?
            You should know that my figures are examples, any normal guy(you must be 19yrs old) with business experience should have figured it out.

            • Peter L

              Wow.

            • Fred

              It is not only about the cost of the OS dumbo boy.

              In 2008 Nokia could still license Symbian to other manufacturer (Samsung, Motorola, Sony, …). But then they left Symbian for Android. And Nokia was ALONE! Same story for MeeGo, no other manufacturer wanted to join MeeGo. Nokia was again ALONE! Nokia is not strong enough to make a whole ecosystem of Symbian or MeeGo ALONE.

              So, Even if your numbers are correct (not sure about it btw) they are not relevant. Nobody is interested anymore in Symbian and Nokia had to leave the sinking ship as well. Which new OS to choose? Android was not an option (already Google Maps, already lot of competition, …) What’s left? Windows Phone. And I think future will prove this was one of the greatest strategic choices of Nokia.

              • Noki

                yeah jump in to the dead wp7 incompatible OS, yeah and NON SELLING, it doesn’t sell, so at least there nokia saves money less licences to pay, heck nokia hardy paid more than 100 million$ in licences to microsoft for failed Lumia range,

                But just to give you a ball park comparison the 80 people that did meltemi costed little more than 10M per year.
                soooo how many years of development would Nokia be able to pay on that…. hummmm

        • Peter L

          Dude, Nokia used 6.7 billion USD to R&D in 2010. Big slice of that was used exclusively for Symbian development.

          There’s no way in hell that number was only $1 billion, so there goes your math.

          • Noki

            And another large chunk bought nokia the biggest IP portfolio in the industry. that IP portfolio is the only thing keeping Nokia relevant and on float.

            Symbian development utterly incompetent and wasteful? sure.

            meego and meltemi? NO way! extremely small teams. Meltemi was roughly 80 people,

            • Janne

              Symbian was the most manned operating system in the history of this planet. More people worked on it than on Windows or Mac OS X. Combined.

              It was a terrible mismanaged mess. Nokia did MeeGo with a fraction of those people.

              • Tom

                So spending few millions on meego should have been the wise option. Nokia is big and could have kept spending 50 million or so to make it ready for future. Hell, 100 million a year on meego would have been great just for risk management.

                • Noki

                  Hey meltemi was costing them less than 10 M a year, yeah that much, nokia needs to sell almost 1 M Lumias to pay that to Microsoft…

    • Janne

      That’s a nicely presented prediction, thanks for it.

      Personally, I see a lot of people coming up with around 6 million Lumias sold in Q4 and I feel my brain clicking with that. It sort of does feel right, although it is hard to say what the WP7-WP8 split would be because Lumia 510 availability/sales insight is so clouded in the western media/social media, as is non-western market insight as a whole. I think something in the 5-7 millon range would be possible.

      What would count as success enough? I don’t think 5-7 million or less (it can be less if the WP8 availability indeed is really bad) would alone count as success signal for Lumia. It might signal failure, especially if it is much less. 10 million would in isolation be enough to say, hey, this will work. If we get, as we expect, something much lower than 10 million we’ll have to look at other signals such as Q1 guidance or possibly if we get information how many Lumias were ordered, but couldn’t be delivered etc. Also, W8/WP8 sales figures from Q4 will be useful information.

      The great thing about Q4 data, though, is that other than availability factor (we must consider that of course), this really is the time when the whole Nokia/Microsoft WP/W8 strategy will start showing and the time of excuses is over. The product is now out, it is done and the market is getting to evaluate it.

      Either it is flying or it is not.

      • Peter L

        I would also take other WP8 manufacturers to the calculations whether WP strategy is viable or not. How much they are selling in addition to the Lumia line is a very important metric in that question.

        Both are currently experiencing similar supply/availability problems as Lumia though…

        • Janne

          Yes, agree. That is what I referred to with: “Also, W8/WP8 sales figures from Q4 will be useful information.”

  • Pierre

    And after all this rumours and noises the Sailfish are coming on the stage, then obvious changes become true I think.

    • Peter L

      Nothing is obvious after a post ambiguous as yours. What do you mean?

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  • Sonny

    Why the hell does nokia have a low supply of the 920′s in the first place? Didnt elop say he would sort out delays like this? Still cant believe how a crappy phone like the gs3 and iphone5 can outsell the whole of nokia’s smartphone division

    • Noki

      one of those phones quarter sales is enough to top all WP sales globally in a full year…

      I leave the question, maybe most people don’t like WP?

      • Sonny

        Even now after the WP8 release people still fell WP is too much of an closed OS. Microsoft/Nokia could have at least changed some of the UI because alot of people still hate tiles, even in windows8

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  • Bloob

    Seems my last post got lost in the way so here’s my prediction:
    3.4 million 7.x Lumias – price, 510, and the holiday season should push these above last quarters numbers

    1.7 million 8.0 Lumias – Qualcomm promises the supply problems are past now, so Nokia should be able to increase production. I’d guess about 20k-25k per country per week sold.

    0.9 million Symbian phones – The devices are less and less competetive and available.

    Overall, I’d expect the ASP to rise some.

    • Noki

      If those are the Numbers its official WP is dead…. Lumia 920, lumia 820, Lumia 610, Lumia 900, Lumia 800, Lumia 710, Lumia 510, Lumia 822, only managed to sell on average less than 650.000 per device worldwide? on xmas season? that is pathetic.

      Remember its 8 LUMIAS a full range

      anything bellow 8M is pathetic

      • Spede oli aliarvostettu

        Never counting revenues, only unit sales?

        • Noki

          revenues on WP???? those have been historically pessimal no point on looking into those,

      • Bloob

        I won’t give any ballparks for what’s pathetic or not, but I do agree, that if I’m right, it would not be good.

        I’ve been very disappointed with MS and their efforts. WP8, while good, is still lacking features. WP7.X is also still lacking features, like file sharing ( coming soon, thanks to Nokia, but it is very late ), that are very important to the demographics that it is aimed at.

        I think 1.7 million wouldn’t be a bad start for basically just 920. I’ve mentioned it at some point, but I would have liked Nokia to release 9-series with 6 or 7-series phone instead of 8-series. Provided no lack of components, the 620 would have been a major force..

        I am currently hoping that I am wrong, especially about the 7.x sales.

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