Strategy Analytics: WP overtakes BlackBerry and becomes 3rd platform in US for Q4 2012?

| February 7, 2013 | 135 Replies

Screen Shot 2013-02-07 at 13.36.25

I’m as surprised to read this as you might be, but apparently in the US, Windows Phone overtook BlackBerry in Q4 2012 marketshare.

“Microsoft Windows Phone overtook BlackBerry OS to become the third largest smartphone platform in the influential United States market during Q4 2012. It was the first time Microsoft has surpassed Blackberry since 2006. Meanwhile, Android lost share in annual terms for the first time ever. Are we now at “peak Android”? Which hardware vendors dominate the Microsoft and Android smartphone ecosystems today?”

https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=reportabstractviewer&a0=8185

 

New WP8′s from Nokia (even with “supply issues”) and delayed BB10 launch may have afforded Nokia and MS an extra gasp of breath but now BB10 is released, competition from Android gets tougher too. MS and Nokia need to pull something huge out of the bag at MWC, and Nokia needs to make sure they MAKE enough of these highly demanded devices and MARKET them properly.

Strategy AnalyticsVia: BGR Via: WPC

Category: Lumia, Nokia

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com
  • nn

    Kantar showed BB behind Windows in US already in Q3. But these estimated numbers are so small and so close it’s meaningless to compare them in that way.

    • jiipee

      Agree. Also, when talking about ecosystems, the basis should be installed base. For BB10 it is 0, for older generation probably bigger than WP.

      • rwtertwret

        There was no BlackBerry in Q4 2012 so it is funny that they compare WP to BB. New BlackBerry starts from Q1 2013 and you will see that Windows Phone is a MISTAKE. Nokia should buy license from BlackBerry and create phone with BlackBerry 10 OS.

        • Keith too

          That is not true. There was no BB10 in Q4 but all North American carriers still carried and promoted BB7 devices.

      • viktor von d.

        they count all bb oses and all windows oses. bb7,wp7/8,wm6.5

  • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

    Well.

    It’s quite apparent what old school Nokia fans think about this.

    If WP overtakes BB, that’s not a proof of MeeGo not being able to succeed. However if BB overtakes WP, that’s a solid proof for MeeGo being able to succeed.

    Anyway, I’m glad if Nokia succeeds with WP. They have been trying hard and this time without the burden of in-house OS development slowing them down.

    Yes?

    • jiipee

      Im glad, if Nokia succeeds. WP is irrelevant detail in the sense that Nokia is now mainly OEM.

      “If WP overtakes BB, that’s not a proof of MeeGo not being able to succeed” – that is correct.
      RIM/Blackberry status does not tell much about what Meego/Qt ecosystem could have been. Too much time has passed, no Meego device with 920′s physical technology was launched A&T and Verizon Meego co-operation was dropped. Meego could have sported BB to some extent since there would have been more Qt apps to port to BB10.

      “However if BB overtakes WP, that’s a solid proof for MeeGo being able to succeed.” That is not correct. Its not solid proof, but stronger indication that the above. This time I ready to claim that all the blog readers here agree that Nokia’s hardware is superior to what RIM/BB has shown. My opinion is that Nokia would have been able to ship Harmattan/meego devices with L920 tech earlier than they shipped 920. They might not suffer from component shortage (we dont know the reason for short supply). What Im not able to say is, whether Meego/Qt strategy would have been stronger than WP strategy by 2015. And if it would have been success at all, evenif the results had been better than with WP. So far the WP results are poor at best.

      Btw. Meego can still be bigger ecosystem than BB10 in NA measured by installed base.

      • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

        In my books Nokia is today less OEM than before. They no longer have to be so constrained by their own OS development. They were never really good at developing Symbian, Maemo or MeeGo.

        They didn’t ship killer products in the recent years. Mostly because of the problems they had with in-house OS development.

        I assume Nokia would have been able to ship 920 with MeeGo (not MeeGo proper) in late Q2 2012 or early Q3 2012.

        • John

          “I assume Nokia would have been able to ship 920 with MeeGo (not MeeGo proper) in late Q2 2012 or early Q3 2012.”

          Am I hallucinating or did you really concede that.
          Agreed though, early Q3 at the absolute latest based on what was known.

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            There is nothing to concede. I try to be as objective as possible and it’s quite probable that they could have released it a bit earlier if they had used MeeGo.

            MeeGo was really quite unfinished product when it was launched. Some people believe it was just intentional not to support folders or video calls, but that’s hardly true. They just didn’t have time to implement all the features people want from modern smartphones.

            • John

              The team had been shrinking long before PR1.1, it started in about March. Only very minimally initially, & mainly for the MeeGo-proper side of things, but by the time they hit Nov, resources started to drop very dramatically.
              Odd how you’re not aware of that, you mustn’t have been following developments very closely at the time, are you a fairly heavy N9/950 user?

              If you think no video calls & folders = unfinished product, then I guess you’re prepared to concede that WP7.5* was also quite a unfinished product when it comes to built-in functionality?
              That certainly was my experience on my L800, & by the time 1.2 was done for Harmattan it was even clearer, even MNB’s analysis at the time validated that.

              *when it 1st came out

              • John

                N.B.
                Apologies in advance if I don’t respond to any responses, simply too busy ATM, so I’m not subscribing.

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                Well.

                You probably understood that those were just examples. It was really very unfinished product and the team size has really nothing to do with it. You should know it.

                Don’t worry. I’m used to people who stop responding because they don’t have arguments or they are busy.

                Yes?

                • GordonH

                  “Don’t worry. I’m used to people who stop responding because they don’t have arguments or they are busy. ”

                  You must be around 20 years old.
                  Yes?

              • Thomas F

                N9 is still the best phone i have ever had….

            • rustyknight17

              Actually Nokia intentionally exluded folder capability from the N9 to make Meego as simple and intuitive as possible . Only after numerous requests and complaints did Nokia include this in a update .

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                That’s just propaganda some people like to believe.

                If they really were that stupid, that would be really surprising.

                People were already laughing at Apple when iOS didn’t have folders in the UI. Apple introduced folders to iOS long time before the work on MeeGo’s Swipe UI had even started. So, Apple was already showing Nokia how the folders should be implemented. All Nokia had to do was just copy that from Apple.

                But they didn’t have time so they released the Swipe UI half baked.

                Yes?

                • rustyknight17

                  No , it isn`t . If memory serves , it was the person in charge of Meego who said that , in his view , the N9 consumer shouldn`t need folders lol !
                  The aim here was to make the N9 even simpler and more intuitive to use than the IPhone . And at that they did very well!
                  As for the Swipe UI being half baked , u r aware , I trust , that the N9 was the first commercial Meego phone ? Of course there were issues ! But if u think the N9 was bad , just recall the original IPhone and the G1 , they were worse !

                  • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                    Well.

                    So you are saying the MeeGo team was incompetent.

                    They didn’t add folders while Apple was already showing that there was a need for those. I guess they really were incompetent in that case.

                    The iPhone was released back in 2007 while the first MeeGo phone shipped in 2011. It should have been lot better compared to the iPhone. A lot better than the iPhone from 2011.

                    I guess it was just a massive failure. Incompetent designers didn’t even understand that it really needed those folders in 2011.

                    So, the MeeGo team was incompetent?

                    Yes?

                    • rustyknight17

                      actually , no , Nokia was trying to make a point , that they could make an OS even simple ,ey succeeded !
                      Meego a massive failure ? Must disagree and it seems that customers strongly disagree with u as the N9 outsold BOTH Lumias ( 800 & 710 ) by approximately 2-1 . I refer u to the Dominies Communicate article , particularly the discusssion between the ExNokian and I !

      • rustyknight17

        That`s true AFAIG , but BB10 is what Meego would most likely be like today , had Nokia pursued that strategy …

    • xxx aka annetthe

      “Nokia succeeds with WP” – WTF are you smoking? Wake up, time to go school.

      • dss

        They might succeed.. but considering the colossal marketing campaign here in the US, they are still loosing market share

        http://wmpoweruser.com/december-comscore-continues-to-show-us-is-not-windows-phones-market/

        • rustyknight17

          They might but as I`ve said that depends on MS and Nokia playing their cards right . ATM , that means getting getting WP8 up to Symbian / Meego level functionality NOW .
          Interestingly , it seems that MS and Nokia r getting rather concerned, to put it mildly , about BB10 !

      • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

        I’m not smoking anything. However I strongly suggest that you should start paying more attention to the text you are reading. You missed the “if” from that sentence.

        Maybe this small piece of almost pseudo code illustrates the way some Nokia fans think?

        // Determines if Nokia was destined to succeed with MeeGo
        void Success(){
        if (gNokiaSucceeds){
        Success();
        }
        Success();
        }

        Anyone notice what happens?

        • Pathetic

          yes? Hahahahha XD

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            You didn’t get it?

            Yes?

        • lp

          Yes. Your memory runs out :)

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            Well.

            That’s just what a typical old school Nokia fan does. Repeating the mantra about Nokia’s success until nothing more can be done.

            Yes?

  • dss

    http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_December_2012_U.S._Smartphone_Subscriber_Market_Share

    Its really strange that they are still loosing Market share in the US.. along side BB

    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

      Well.

      Maybe people want to have only Android or iOS?

      Only in late 2010 Nokia fans were laughing at Android while saying it was too buggy. Today the same people are claiming that Nokia should have picked Android.

      I hope to be wrong about people only wanting to buy phones based on Android or iOS. It would be really great to see Nokia to succeed.

      Yes?

    • Grendell

      Strange indeed considering what they gave up in the rest of the world…

      • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

        You make it look like they had a choice to losing the sales in the rest of the world.

        • GordonH

          You make it look like Elop had no choice but to destroy all Nokia products that competed against MS products.

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            In a way yes, but not really.

            Symbian was destined to die. There was really nothing to be done to save it.

            Yes?

            • GordonH

              LOL

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                It seems that LOL is all you can say.

                There has been no real options for Nokia. In addition to getting new customers from scratch.

                It was a huge collapse but the decline of the high end happened already in 2009 and 2010.

                • GordonH

                  you are still very funny LOL

            • rustyknight17

              Really ? How would u know since Symbian 3 was killed before it could gain a foothold ?
              If u r referring OTOH to s60 , then yes , u r right . But s3 , OR RATHER the Belle version was intended to correct this !
              Yes ?

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                Symbian^3 was intended to change the situation. It was supposed to be able to compete with iOS and Android. Even at the very same quarter the shiny new Symbian^3 was released, Nokia was losing market share. Nokia was not just losing it but it was collapsing. Nokia lost 5 points of market share the very same quarter they were selling Symbian^3 phones in the Christmas time.

                Now you are telling us that it was supposed to be the next release that was going to stop the decline?

                It was always about the next release. Next Symbian version, next hardware revision. Next something.

                It was just too late. There was no longer time for the next something. Feb 11. can’t even be seen in the graph illustrating the market share.

                Symbian was destined to die because it was no longer a viable OS.

            • rustyknight17

              No . As I said elsewhere , there was a solution ; Belle , with S3 and Anna playing catchup

            • rustyknight17

              Yes there was . It` was called Nokia Belle , with S3 and Anna as catch up . It was killed , aalong with Meego , before it could get off the ground !@

    • v.s.i

      Losing market share is a thing, the market expanding at a higher rate than your platform is another which leads to the same graph. Numbers speak for themselves and Nokia is now profitable. Most importantly, *mind share* is better now than it ever was in the last 5 years, which leads to generally good reviews all around and a continued trend of good selling numbers.

      The numbers themselves may have been even better had they taken another strategy, but for now, the reality is that Nokia is starting to again be perceived as an important player in an all-important smartphone arena.

      • John

        “Losing market share is a thing, the market expanding at a higher rate than your platform is another which leads to the same graph.”

        Hmmm, where have we heard that one before I wonder… ;)

        “Most importantly, *mind share* is better now than it ever was in the last 5 years”

        How does one accurately quantify & 100% verify such a thing?
        And how can one completely rule-out that the same would’ve been achievable with Harmattan -> MeeGo, WP slightly lower-end (or maybe top-end too) alongside Symbian*, Meltemi, & S30.

        *probably to be phased-out completely (but it’d depend on market & internal factors) & “if so”, slightly more quickly (but less devastatingly) than the current plan.

      • jiipee

        N9 already did it. Ok, it was given lighter treatment since it was known to be dead on arrival.

      • rustyknight17

        Agree with ur marketshare point ! Symbian was growing in 2010 , but at a slower rate than the market !

  • Luisito

    Wait, wait patiently to the Q1 report… Looking at Q2 to see how the new Berrys do with full throttle…

  • KC

    I don’t think we will even have to wait for the Q2 numbers to get an idea if BB 10 has put BlackBerry on the road to recovery or not. It would seem that in the markets they have launched BB 10 in so far they aren’t able to keep them on shelves and it is rumored the UK alone received over 100 000 Z10s in the initial launch which sold out in hours and the second batch as well.

    Canada has a similar story.

    The USA is going to be the real test though. But it is for Windows Phone as well. AT&T claims they have sold more Windows Phones to date then any other carrier in the world. Yet they can’t manage to move even one million per quarter total. If RIM manages to push a couple million units in more then one country outside the USA in Q1, and if sales momentum continues, they might, that is a very bad sign for things to come for Windows Phone.

    We will see if BlackBerry can hold on once the new wave of Android phones is unveiled at MWC, but so far it’s looking like BlackBerry sticking to their guns and going it alone is what their customers wanted.

    Plus, hardware is relative. The Nokia Lumia 920 has some amazing technologies and a superb build. But it does not resonate with consumers as the trend it thin and light. The Z10 isn’t cutting edge hardware, but it has enormously more appeal to an iPhone user then a Lumia 920. It is not missing anything major. expandable memory, NFC, DLNA, removable battery and a great screen. Basically everything iPhone users would long for when they look at Android phones when it comes to hardware, but with a fast, fluid and beautiful user experience similar to what they have on iPhone.

    Yeah, us gadget nerds who read tech blogs are looking for the next big revolution, but the market isn’t. Windows Phone was to dramatically different. BlackBerry 10 offers what the iPhone lacks hardware wise, and a few clever ways of doing things that is just slightly better then what the market already has. That seems to be resonating with the general consumer more.

    Both Windows Phone and BlackBerry 10 have their major shortcomings as well though. It’ll be interesting to see which camp is able to evolve their platform and fix some of the issues. It would seem as if Windows Phone has the advantage, but there has been no evidence thus far, and we’re talking 2 1/2 years, that Microsoft can deliver. BlackBerry 10 is new and now that it’s out in the market we have yet to see how fast BlackBerry can evolve the Platform to fill in the gaps with Android and iOS.

    • jiipee

      Id be careful what is writteng in the media on BB10 sales. Just like what has been with WP.

    • rustyknight17

      Just so !

    • rustyknight17

      I`m curious , what do u see as Blackberry 10`s major shortcomings ?

  • tomwhat

    As a “gadget nerd” I would say BB has an really interesting horse in the stable with QNX. People claiming that XBOX WP and W8 are such a great ecosystem oversee one fact. They are brand-fanboys ignoring that what counts is:

    If I write code I want to be able to run it on multiple platforms with a minimal amount. Here BB wins with C/C++ & Qt, Webworks, Air, Android. The platforms that come to my mind are here: Qt will soon work on IOS, Android, BB10 but not on WP. And also: If I already write my code for 2 platforms that I can’t ignore (IOS and Android) then I can easily serve another platform with BB’s Android support or maybe in the future also Sailfish/Ubuntu…I think Nokia would have been another OS on this list especially for game developers or app developers that share core libraries between platforms. The ecosystem argument is only valid for a system that attracts developers because you can easily make money with not investing too much of effort. I don’t think any big app developer just jumps on the train because XBOX, WP and W8 all come from the same company –> Looser here is WP!

    Most platforms somehow have tools to sync with your desktop or business servers or some cloud providers. Why the hell do I need a WP if I have a Windows computer or if I want to use Outlook? Support for Exchange servers, CardDav, CalDav, IMAP, XMPP, USB support is all I need and doesn’t makes me dependant on one company!

    The ecosystem argument county but doesn’t mean that you need to buy Ken just to have fun with Barbie ;-)

    I hope BB manages to show the potentials of ONX and see them in the same position as Apple when they restarted with a new OS underneath that was well respected for its potential.

  • Sonny

    Many of you should realize that BB10 and android looks pretty similar and the many of the android people will be willing to change to BB10 because of its similarities and openness, rather then taking a WP8 device which basically is closed like an iphone.

    So that means a lot of the android market share might jump to BB10 if needed plus also a lot of Symbian users will go to BB10 if say Jolla don’t deliver.

    This is what you get if you screw most of your customer base over and thinking they will just jump to WP!

    • v.s.i

      If you think any Android user who has a 2011 flagship or 2012 mid-ranger is ready to overlook the customisation and 700k app catalog of Android and move to BlackBerry then you are deluding yourself. I doubt anyone apart from former BB fans is going to take BB 10 into account.

      • Luisito

        And that’s the thing that’s hurting Nokia… Not all Nokia fans aren’t really happy to jump into WP (or merely wishing to do it)

      • Sonny

        “If you think any Android user who has a 2011 flagship or 2012 mid-ranger is ready to overlook the customisation and 700k app catalog of Android and move to BlackBerry then you are deluding yourself”

        So what are you then saying??? that there is actually no hope for nokia hey? because that android users who holds 60% of the planets market share (might be even more) will not go to WP because it has even less customisation and also way less apps?

        “I doubt anyone apart from former BB fans is going to take BB 10 into account.”

        Looks like the same is happening to WP hey. because android user wont jump to WP as well as IOS and certainly not the Symbian users!

        It actually proves why WP lost market share in the US because no one except hardcore nokia users and the small WP base will buy WP products!

        • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

          Did Nokia really lose market share in high end?

          Maybe they just lost the low end sales and replaced the mid and high end with WP phones?

          The problem was that Nokia was selling very few high end phones. That’s why it was possible to replace only those mid and high end phones with Lumia models. Not those low end models. The same would have happened with MeeGo. There was really too few high end sales to be replaced with MeeGo phones.

          Yes?

          • jiipee

            No.

            Symbian was still selling this year despite no major product launches. Excluding Q4, the ASP tells that Symbian was mostly low end. What Ive heard /and GSMArena confirms), 700/701 were solid devices that would be today low end.

            • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

              That’s the problem people don’t seem to understand.

              There was very little sales that could have been replaced with MeeGo phones.

              Nokia already lost the battle in 2009 and 2010 when the high end sales collapsed.

              • rustyknight17

                Collapsed ? Decline was more like at least until all the rumours about Elop`s memo and the MS alliance started flying in mid December 2010 …

        • v.s.i

          Calm down. Firstly, what I’m saying is that BB doesn’t offer many things that aren’t already being offered by the competition. Plus they have a high price point. The WP/Nokia combination offers an alternative OS and more diverse price points that *this combination* is enough to sway the buying decision towards Nokia instead of Samsung/HTC etc. Mostly HW but also things like Maps, Music etc. See the Lumia 620 reviews and how they point out that it’s at best a mid-range device price-wise.

          Secondly, a lot of Android’s market share comes from tech-unsavvy people, who are a very good marketing target and prone to shopping on word-of-mouth advice. So good marketing and mind share are also important (unfortunately Nokia doesn’t seem to get the first very well, or their PR agency is dumb).

          Thirdly, I was referring (and excuse me for not making it clear enough) to current Android, former BB users in my comment. And to be clear, I was wondering why would they buy a less-capable Android 2.3 app player rather than a full Android 4.1 device (40% are Android ports). They would certainly do it for the sake of being different and trying something new, not for the apps. Kind of like WP.

          Finally, it may well be true that the only way Nokia can regain market % (like in the ‘good old days’, if you will) is to use Android. But that decision can only come no earlier than 2016. So until then, they should be satisfied with usurping Apple and *maybe* preparing for a full-force entry into the Android arena.

      • rustyknight17

        Actually , I think more people will jump ship from Android than u think . For one , most Android apps can run on BB10 , that pretty much cancels out the App store advantage … And BB10 is awesome , so say the people who have actually tried it !

    • rustyknight17

      Yup !

  • GordonH

    Interesting competition between two camps.
    WP is not exactly picking up hence the cheap WP smartphone models being let loose to increase market share. RIM has just released their QNX models with some positive sales feedback. Interesting times this Q1 and Q2 2013.

  • ms.nokia

    “Meanwhile, Android lost share in annual terms for the first time ever. Are we now at “peak Android”? ”

    those words are music to my ears.

  • Luisito

    And that’s the thing that’s hurting Nokia… Not all Nokia fans aren’t really happy to jump into WP (or merely wishing to do it)

    • dss

      That is an understatement. Most Nokia users are now Google users… Nokia is going to have to rely on newly acquired users, not on the old Symbian user base.

      • Sonny

        Seeing that Elop’s strategy is USA 1st priority World after that, I don’t see how Nokia can get better numbers in the US.

        Look at ComScore’s latest data. Android and Apple holds almost 90% of the US market share, while blackberry holds 6%

        Android users wont leave Android because they’re too into their customization, Apple users wont leave because of their apps and because that apple sign. So where would Nokia get their users? The 4% of WP and Symbian users?

        Just imagine if Nokia could have completely converted those Symbian user base too whatever(MeeGo,Symbian,WP) they chose.

        But hey Elop’s still there so he must be doing something right.

      • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

        Those old Symbian users were mostly low end users. Nokia had very few high end sales.

        There was really not too many high end users. So, it was not possible to get so many high end Symbian users to replace those handsets with WP or with MeeGo.

        Nokia failed the transition to any high end phone because they lost the high end sales. That started to happen already in 2009.

        Yes?

        • Dr.Smart

          But what about your rear end? Does it need a good kicking or what? ;)

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            Well.

            I guess that’s the best argument you have.

            Now I’m allowing you to mimic me a bit. Just do it.

            Yes?

            • Sonny

              those low end users was smartphones non the less and they sold more then what all the lumia’s now combined. Plus of the 4.4 million lumia’s sold this quarter and all the other quarters, how many was high end?

              You seem to blame everything prior to Elop arrived, but the main thing is he is here now and he is responsible for what is happening currently. I’ts now 2 years since his famous burning memo speech and Nokia still cant even sell more than 10 million smartphones per quarter!

              So tell me do you still blame prior Elop/OPK for the mediocre 4.4 million lumia’s sold, which was probably low end 610,710,800′s

              Yes???? No????? Maybe????

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                Well.

                You can’t make low end users to buy high end phones. Not overnight. That’s why it was not possible to make most Symbian users to buy Lumia phones. It wouldn’t have been possible to make most Symbian users to buy MeeGo phones. This seems to be very hard for Nokia fans to understand.

                Nokia was selling mostly low end phones.

                Elop was not able to fix Nokia from the damages made by OPK and Ollila.

                I’m interested to hear what should have been done to make Nokia to keep the sales they had. Do you have any suggestions?

                Staying on Symbian? No, Android was killing it even in the low end.

                Making MeeGo phones? No, there was not enough high end Symbian users to switch to MeeGo.

                Turning into Android? Possibly, but Nokia would have been competing on low end anyway.

                Meltemi? No, Meltemi was supposed to be ready by the end of 2012 if Nokia was lucky.

                Yes?

                • Sonny

                  Well what was told one of the main reasons Nokia had to drop Symbian was because the Tech world started to hate it and that is why Nokia could never get in to the US because site like Endgadget,Gizmodo,Cnet etc kept on bashing Symbian and Nokia. That was a main reason.

                  So in order to infiltrate US they needed something new right something like WP? Yes?

                  Well after the N9 was released all these biased sited praised Nokia, some was even saying why do Nokia have to use WP if they MeeGo Harmattan.

                  You can say what you want,we had to wait 2 years after 11 Feb to get a Nokia phone that is competitive, but they had one in the N9 in half that time but screwed up as usual.

                  You can also see these sites that used to hate Nokia for the Symbian phones, some of them still hate Nokia like Forbes, but the main thing is if you compare the N9 first initial reviews to the 920 you would see that the N9 got far more positive responses meaning that they had a better chance going with the N9 that time then having to wait another year for the 920.

                  So in conclusion what I would have done if I was Elop:

                  High End: MeeGo and WP devices
                  Mid End: Symbian,WP,Meltemi
                  Low End: Meltemi,Symbian and WP if it could be used that low.

                  There was no need to go all in with WP.

                  P.S. Its funny to see that most of the reviews of the 920, reviewers praising the hardware, the PV Camera or the exclusive Nokia Apps. All of this could have been done on Symbian and MeeGo. But no one seems to praise WP in these reviews. Can you tell me why?

                  Yes

                  • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                    Well.

                    Tech sites have very little to to with some phone succeeding or not. Even the iPhone 4S was considered to be a failure by tech sites and still it sold like hotcakes. Tech sites – or should we say good reviews – are not that important for sales.

                    Your High End strategy with WP and MeeGo would have encountered problems because there was very few high end Nokia users you could sell those phones to. Getting new customers is not that easy.

                    Same thing would have been eating your middle end sales. In addition to that, Meltemi was not ready to be sold. It was supposed to be ready by the end of 2012. And that was if Nokia was lucky. Symbian was no longer competitive in middle so very few sales from there,

                    Lod end would not have worked because Symbian was no longer competitive against low end Android phones. That’s the reason Nokia lost Symbian sales in the first place in 2011. Meltemi was not ready so it would not have helped. WP was not ready for low end at the time.

                    Your strategy would have resulted about the same outcome as Elop’s strategy did. With the difference of more costs from in-house OS development.

                    Sites are used to praise Nokia hardware but not software.

                    • GordonH

                      “With the difference of more costs from in-house OS development.”
                      Cost of Meego development would still be much much cheaper then licensing WP. And Yes these figures do not include revenues and the positive image/respect gained with using inhouse OS.
                      Now my boy hush hush and go back to high school on Monday.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      I see. You are ignorant about the costs in-house OS development has.

                      Please learn the basics.

                      Nokia had two problems. That development too too much money. Second, they were not able to ship early enough. Even the N9 was shipped with a half baked UI.

                      Yes?

                    • GordonH

                      Half baked UI. Remeber the lies in the article “The emperor had no cloths”.
                      Turns out the stabbed team at Meego got the N9 released before Lumia 7.8.
                      Best part wast N9 was released 2 years before the late WP8.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      So what?

                      It was not released before WP7.

                      Yes?

                  • GordonH

                    You too can learn some basics of the inhouse cost of a Linux OS development by looking into the Ubuntu mobile team and the best reference would be the entire company expenses of Jolla.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Well.

                      Jolla. They never shipped a single phone and you are using them as a reference?

                      Yes?

                    • Mahoney

                      +1

                    • Mahoney

                      Even when Jolla haven’t shipped anything yet still they have pre-orders already and millions of enthusiasts awaiting for the N9 successor – because in fact they are awaiting for next incarnation of the N9.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Well.

                      Real artist ship.

                      Yes?

        • rustyknight17

          not sure what school u went to but all of the Symbian 3 and Belle phones were high end or mid range . OTOH , the s60 phones tended to be low or mid range . R u including s40 as Symbian ?
          While we don`t have sales figures for the Belle or most of the S3 phones , word is that they did quite well sales wise ! I do know that Amazon USA for instance had trouble keeping them in stock . And we also know that the N8 , in it`s first year , sold 10 million BY ITSELF !!
          Not bad for a DOA OS !
          Yes ?

          • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

            Symbian3 phones sold only 5 million in the first quarter they were released. That was quite a disappointment. Nokia was promoting Symbian3 for years before the release and N8 was promoted for a half year before it started shipping in Q3 2010.

            I don’t think Nokia ever said N8 sold 10 million in a year. If it did, that was a huge failure in selling one of the top phones Nokia had at the time.

            There really was not enough high end sales to be replaced with MeeGo or WP phones. Nokia already failed in 2009 and 2010.

            Yes?

            • rustyknight17

              Source please on the Symbian sales figures ?

  • Luisito

    At some point I agree, but, IF MS start to bring the features that ex-nokia/symbian users are used to, I bet you those guys will take a Nokia WP as a serious option, I’m one of them, I hate the tiles startscreen but, if the OS deliver a better multitask, a proper builtin file manager (a real one, where I can mess around with any type of file) and the ability to download any type of file from the web (even if there isn’t an app to open it) Nokia can count with my money… Apart, two years, two years where Nokia could have finished Meego, even Meltemi, but no!!!… It’s better to leave yours fate on the hands of someones else (that has the same, if not even worst problems than you)

    • Viipottaja

      Very unlikely you will ever get full file system.

      • Sonny

        Why not? Nokia’s bloody Asha’s line up has a File Manager FFS!

        That’s what you get for putting all your eggs into one basket and the basket isn’t strong enough to hold all your eggs! So it seems you have to throw away some of your eggs.

        • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

          Nokia had a rotten egg called Symbian.

          It spoiled too many eggs.

          Yes?

          • Sonny

            Well Nokia went with WP which got scrambled and is still making scrambled eggs of.

            yes?

            • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

              Well.

              That rotten egg is no longer there so it’s a bit better.

              Yes?

              • GordonH

                Well

                Elop is still there so it’s still rotten.

                • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                  I guess you didn’t understand.

                  Elop didn’t ruin Nokia. That happened because of OPK and Ollila. Symbian was no longer something Nokia was able to sell.

                  I know you love Symbian because you are member of the Symbian religion.

                  That’s just something you have to try to get over.

                  • GordonH

                    I guess you also don’t understand.

                    A CEO being called a trojan around the world for 2 years is not something that should be taken lightly.

                    I don’t love Symbian but I can see you shoving your comments around to protect your beloved MS religion.

                    That’s also just somethings around you that you have to try to get over.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      I don’t like WP that much. Yes, it’s a better option compared to Symbian but it’s still not something I really like.

                      Who has been calling Elop a Trojan? Mostly old school Nokia fans who have almost religious view on the matter. One of those people is Tomi Ahonen. He is an “analyst” who fabricates numbers and makes up proof.

                      There has been no proof about Elop being a Trojan. Calling him that is just a nice story making old school Nokia fans to feel comfortable. It’s just a nice story invented to take attention away from the complete failure of Nokia’s strategy. Nokia failed long before Elop and this is just something people like to accuse him.

                      Nokia lost most of the the high end customers back in 2009 and 2010. That resulted with the collapse of the future sales in high end. There were too few high end customers to switch from Symbian to MeeGo or WP.

                      That’s why Nokia was really destined to fail in high end.

                    • GordonH

                      “Who has been calling Elop a Trojan? Mostly old school Nokia fans who have almost religious view on the matter.”

                      You need to stop using Bing … now try google search maybe that open your eyes.

                      Again people are not calling Elop a trojan because of Symbian. One easy clue is to look around Nokia, ask some honest Nokia employees.
                      All Nokia products competing against MS have been killed, given bad PR, stabbed and given the status as “live on”.
                      The killing and stabbing of s40 has already started, WinCE is now the next “logical business” replacement for s40.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      MeeGo was unproven platform. No proof it would have sold well. Symbian was collapsing and most of the high end sales were lost before Elop.

                      Accusing Elop as a Trojan is just a bed time story for people who don’t want to understand that Nokia was in a bad shape in 2010.

                      There was no high end left for MeeGo.

                    • Mahoney

                      “There was no high end left for MeeGo.” – owww?? N9 was in sell in prices comparable to iPhone and it was hot stuff. MeeGo (N9) has won some awards (like Yellow pencil) and rankings (like the best=number 1 in consumer satisfaction, in UK – where, note it!, N9 was not in sell even officially. So your POV seems to be not quite based on common feelings for N9=MeeGo itself. IMHO.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Maybe N9 sold quite well. Maybe it failed miserably and sold only few hundred thousand units. There is no real proof either way.

                      Tomi Ahonen fabricated some N9 sales numbers but those were just lies. No proof.

                      Rankings don’t matter. Sales do. The iPhone 4S was ranked to be crap but in reality it was selling like hotcakes. Because it was a great product.

                      Nokia had no that much high end sales left to be replaced with MeeGo phones. That’s why MeeGo was destined to fail.

                      Rankings rarely matter.

                      Yes?

                    • chrnov

                      obviously it was not gonna sell as much when you have a loudmouth ceo who announces he will cull the os and it was not released in key markets to give the lumia 800 half a chance. Not to mention lack of the shovel loads of cash poured into lumia advertising. wp was also an “unproved os” as it still had crap market-share after 1 year!

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      It’s possible that Nokia would have failed anyway with MeeGo or with WP. They no longer had that many high end customers after the collapse in 2009 and 2010.

                      Yes?

              • rustyknight17

                I can`t tell ..

        • Viipottaja

          Why on earth would the average user want/need a full file system on an Asha device? Must be confusing as hell to see all kinds of system files etc. and trying to find your own files in that mess (like it was on Symbian many times, or even on the N900). ;)

          • rustyknight17

            AIUI , via my contacts in emerging markets , which is who the AShas r designed for , the file system is used chiefly to send media files to their friends and family …

            • Mahoney

              This is like a question “why do you need a file system in your computer?” There is no single answer – just users need this, and that is all about it! It is needed. I don’t get your doubts at all.

              • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                How many timed you have used the file system of your car? And why?

                Assuming you have a car that’s not over 10 years old.

                Most people need to use the devices.

                Yes?

                • Mahoney

                  I use it everytime to add or to delete music from storage memory I use for my on-board audio (in car of course). So I use it every time I want to make changes in my music. And I use the device, and without filesystem it would be messy as hell I think. Most probably you are not IVI’s user so you don’t know what are talking about to much perhaps – no offence please.

                  • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                    I see. You failed to understand the difference between car and audio equipment.

                    Yes?

                    • Mahoney

                      This kind of trolling is really sweet. Explained once is enough. You have been answered and still don’t get the point or pretend so. This among other reasons is why Nokia today is where it is.

                      Why? What for?

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Well.

                      Religion almost killed Nokia.

  • rwtertwret

    There was no BlackBerry in Q4 2012 so it is funny that they compare WP to BB. New BlackBerry starts from Q1 2013 and now you will see that Windows Phone is a MISTAKE. Nokia should buy license from BlackBerry and create phone with BlackBerry 10 OS.

  • twig

    They had a radio spot about the BB 10 in the U.S. today. It said BB postponed one of them in the U.S.? IN any case, they said the release in Canada, home of BB, was met with no lines, no waiting. BB is done unless they call Nokia quick for some Sailfish help.

    • Dave

      Sailfish isn’t formally a Nokia project.

      BB10 looks pretty good, sales have been healthy. They always stated that the US release would be later than canada/europe.

  • Jeff

    http://mynokiablog.com/2013/02/07/strategy-analytics-wp-overtakes-blackberry-and-becomes-3rd-platform-in-us-for-q4-2012/comment-page-1/#comment-764332

    Odd how you’re an EXPERT on how feature anaemic & unstable it was compared to WP7.5x “then” when you’ve never used it extensively, & even MNB assessed it as having markedly more utility built-in.*
    In fact no one’s sure you’ve owned a 1st generation Lumia, let alone N9/950, judging by past comments. And ofc team size had LOTS to do with it, only someone blinded by some kind of bias would refuse to acknowledge that as a significant factor.

    *there was an article in Q1(?) 2012 which listed the bucket-loads of things WP was missing compared to Harmattan, the comments were even more revealing. Harmattan was definitely more unstable at that point, but that was also when resources had been “plummeting off a cliff” for some time already. 1.3 came approx 4mth later, it was far from ideal in addressing all major bugs, & brought almost zero new features, beyond that the team was non-existent.

    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

      Well.

      I guess you are bitter because that long awaited N9 was not a success.

      Yes?

      • Jeff

        Not really, I just find your non-objectivity (despite your vacuous claims to the contrary) to be blindingly obvious.
        You see unlike you, I’m not comfortable with KNOWING what would’ve happened if Harmattan & then MeeGo* remained part of the strategy, alongside WP.
        I can formulate a well-informed & calculated “guess” (which I’ve attempted a few times before), but in-the-end it’s still just massive “crapshoot”.
        But I’m aware of the little semantic & pseudo-factual games you like to play, & I’ve far more important things to do with my time.
        So, you won’t have the joy of me reading & addressing further responses from you, go crazy…

        Toodaloo
        *or Meltemi at least

        • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

          I see.

          You are so bitter that you are not responding even while you are responding?

          Yes?

          • rustyknight17

            No , u r being a troll here …
            Jeff , BB10 has distinct Meego elements , so it`s proably fair to say that BB10 is what Meego would be today !

            • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

              Well.

              Jeff is a in my books preacher. Not someone who has really something important to say. In my books.

              So, you are saying that BB10 has elements from MeeGo? I suppose you are suggesting that if BB10 succeeds, it’s almost a solid proof of MeeGo being able to succeed?

              Yes?

              • Mahoney

                The most solid proof of MeeGo success is that most of MeeGo (N9) users are happy, satisfied and still using N9. Nokia has screwed distribution, has limited access to important markets and devoted almost nothing for marketing. And even then Nokia N9 has become a legendary mobile. I don’t know if this is demanded proof, but this is fact. Nokia has created a new standard, like Symbian years ago, but has not monetised it as it was possible IMHO. I also think Windows and MeeGo could run parallel and generate money.

                • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                  So you take your assumption and say it’s a fact.

                  Really nice.

                  There is no proof that too many people really bought MeeGo phones.

                  Yes?

                  • chrnov

                    One could say “there is no proof that too many people did not buy a meego phone”

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      That’s just what I have been saying.

                      No proof either way.

                      So, there is no need to say Nokia should have pursued MeeGo because of the sales.

                      Yes?

                  • Mahoney

                    There were many proofs of potential customers asking for N9 and who were denied as “Nokia does not sell N9 on this market”, and those were so small markets like: Germany, UK, USA, India, Indonesia and number of others. Not delivered stuff can’t be sold. Also in the same time Nokia has cancelled possibility of buying via internet (in most cases as I know). So there was demand, traction, noise around and there were no delivery. Whatever CEO would say users would buy it – but that was not possible due to market restrictions. Whatever were reasons. And seems they were more “political” then “market” in nature. There was a vacuum in market. It is going to filled with mobiles like Sailfish (Jolla, Zopo), Ubuntu Mobile, Tizen, Firefox. Unused opportunity. Nokia has established a new kind of standard (like once with Symbian) and have not monetized it. Could do it together with Windows promotion. IMHO.

                    Yes? No? Else?

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      I see. You think some random tech bloggers and some niche users really matter for someone like Nokia.

                      Yes?

                    • Mahoney

                      I see Gordon you have a bit ironic approach to the reality. It is good to feel to have full control over discussion.

                      Yes? No? Else?

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Just realistic.

                      Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

                      Yes?

                    • Mahoney

                      Thank you for making my supposition more probable.
                      However when one is controlling a discussion does not make one is right or wrong or anything – this only help to bury or hide one’s fears. Perhaps.

                    • Gordon Ramsay juttelee mukavia

                      Well.

                      You obviously missed the point. Or perhaps many points.

                      Yes?

      • rustyknight17

        not a success ////////? The N9 , as I detailed in the Dominies communicate article on this , outsold BOTH the 800 and 710 by approximately 2-1 .
        Not bad for a “failed “OS ! Yes ?

  • Marc

    Has anyone seen what data these analytics use (they don’t show), because their data is different (very) from comscore.

    • Mahoney

      You can look at official Nokia data and estimate how different they are from predictions or make your own calculations. Using mathematics and owned eduction is not prohibited. I suppose so.

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