MorganStanley estimates 20M+ Q4 smartphone sales for Nokia, 1M Lumia; 40M Symbian, 37M WP 2012

According to AllThingsDigital, MorganStanley have put together some expected sales for 2012. Interestingly they also estimate Nokia’s 2011 performance (well Q4 2011).  Let’s glean what we can from here.

• Total Symbian and Windows Phone sales for 2011 for Nokia account 77M. What about MeeGo/N9? Just with Symbian and Windows Phone, that could make 19.3M sales for Q4 2011. With MeeGo, that might be well over 20M+ no? N9 must have sold at least >1M (and not the infamous 92k units)
• For comparison that’s 2011 – Q1 at 24.2, Q2 at 16.7, Q3 at 16.8. Nokia will be up from Q3, but down from Q4 2010 which was a huge 28.3M.
• In total, even without sales from N9, Sales are at least up from 2009 with still increasing shipment estimates year on year.
• The only thing we can’t see here is whether Nokia will continue to grow with the market growth.
• Note also, Nokia may have other smartphone platforms in addition to Symbian and WP ;).
• There’s an estimated 1M Nokia Lumia sold.
• 40M Symbian for 2012
• 37M Windows for 2012
• 64M Windows  for 2013
• 16M Symbian for 2013
• 43M combined number of Nokia and HTC, so HTC’s sales are expected to only be 6M for the whole of 2012. NOTE; 43M is not the total for ALL WindowsPhones contrary to what WMPoweruser stated at the time I wrote this post.

43 million this year and 74 million the next. And that’s just those two OEMs alone. There are a few others for which the research house doesn’t provide estimates. 

Fierce competition from Android and iOS, lacklustre portfolio until Q4, the new strategy all adds to a much tougher time for Nokia in 2011. Things only look to get harder in 2012. Nokia needs to show their A-game. What if, suddenly the next billion were smartphones?

Source allthingsd via WMPoweruser

Thanks Jeremy and mrprince for the tip!

Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone