Statcounter: WP crosses 20% in Finland (#Nokia #Lumia)

| January 22, 2013 | 36 Replies

Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 13.09.48

We’ve been watching Finland, home of Nokia and Lumia, and the progress of WP for a while. Fortunately it’s been a nice positive incline as WP adoption continues to increase in Finland, month after month, no doubt predominantly due to Nokia Lumia.

We’ve previously noted spikes passing 20% but now it’s remaining steady over 20% over the last few weeks.

Here’s what it’s looking like since January 2012. Note the arrival of Nokia Lumia around Feb.

Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 13.10.24

http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FI-daily-20120101-20130121

 

As always, we like to give some context:

  • Statcounter gives data extrapolated on browser usage of all current phones. Not just the recent sales. Actual percentage of Lumia sales is definitely higher than 20% for Lumia/WP to reach this much percentage of overall users. Let’s take a look at UK which was said to have 5.9%. To statcounter, that is 2.76%

Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 13.21.56

 

Similarly, Italy which is said to have 13.9% of December sales. A shy 4.51 in Stat counter.

Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 13.22.55

 

  • Finland’s population is just shy over 5 Million. It’s not a big enough population sample to declare WP a success at all.
  • Finland is the home of Nokia. Though you could say that Finns are just buying Nokia things, well, you could alternatively ask them why Symbian phones began freefalling from 2008. Perhaps they just like what’s good and the competition brought something better. Now their home grown brand is bringing back something which is worthy of their use and hard earned cash?
  • Lumia 800 was a best seller for 2012 in Finnish networks.
  • Growth, other than Finland, is still slow elsewhere (except perhaps a few other countries). For this to be significant, we need to see significant global growth.

Out of interest, WP actually now finally appears in Statcounter’s Global chart.

Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 13.25.09

Hopefully more to come as Nokia announces more compelling Nokia Lumia devices. More innovation at the top, more value at the bottom.

Category: Lumia, Nokia, Windows Phone

About the Author ()

Hey, thanks for reading my post. My name is Jay and I'm a medical student at the University of Manchester. When I can, I blog here at mynokiablog.com and tweet now and again @jaymontano. We also have a twitter and facebook accounts @mynokiablog and  Facebook.com/mynokiablog. Check out the tips, guides and rules for commenting >>click<< Contact us at tips(@)mynokiablog.com or email me directly on jay[at]mynokiablog.com

Comments (36)

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  1. xerxes2 says:

    S40 marketshare (and probably sales) tank even faster than I thought and WP still hovering around one percent. You might say that Nokia is currently standing on two burning platforms. :) Operational loss in Q4 will be huge and they will very soon have to sell their half of NSN to avoid bankruptcy. NSN is believed to be worth around 1-5 billion euros depending on who you ask and Nokia will need every penny of it in the near future. Nokia have already sold their HQ so there’s not much left to sell now other than NSN.

    • anders81 says:

      Nok q4 will have +500 to 700m€ operational profit. 87m units sold, NSN record profit, etc. I have a strong feeling that Nokia will become a huge hit :)
      First we will see some great devices launched MWC and the big bomb will be delivered during q2.

      • incognito says:

        They haven’t yet released the official Q4 numbers and the moving goalposts routine has started, so typical… Now it’s Q2 2013? Ok, I take your Q2 and raise it to Q3 2013 as the quarter when Elop gets the boot, or Nokia sells its smartphone department together with the parasite.

        • who knows says:

          Incognito, didn’t you predict Nokia going out of business in Q4? I guess you are expecting a very rough report on thursday.

          • incognito says:

            I never predicted when Nokia is going out of business – I don’t have a crystal ball to make such a bold prediction, but the way this is going it is inevitable sooner or later least they change something radically (and I think it’s too late for that). I did, wrongly, predicted a dreadful Q3, tho, which obviously didn’t happen due to the Asha having far bigger impact than I could’ve imagined.

            OTOH, WP chumps and chumpettes were moving goalposts all along, and a countless of quarters have passed where Nokia will truly shine, according to them, yet Nokia is only getting worse.

            • who knows says:

              The last six months Nokias stock has risen with approximately 150 %. I guess Wall st. don’t agree with your sentiment.

              Nokia has stabilised its cash-flow and are in no danger of going out of business, even if sales stayed this low. A fairly reasonable prediction is that the WP-sales will continue to grow once WP 8 devices fully hits the market in Q1. Or do you think Nokia will sell less WP-phones in Q1/Q2?

              • Noki says:

                so you think that wen nokia was at 1.6$ it was the fair value of the company? hehehehe and that guy that made nokia punge into 1.6$ in the frist place, what his name….. hummm cant remember. it rimed with flop….

                Just the IP value of nokia was worth more than that…

                But you can see far more impressive results than that, RIM in the last 4 months has recovered 175% :)

              • incognito says:

                I do think that Nokia will sell more Lumias in Q1 than in the past quarter – what with all the new models, including the better suited lower-tier line compared to the WP7 lineage – but they’ll sell less in Q2 than in Q1, which is one of the reasons why I think that Elop will be, finally, sacked come July/August (again, optimistic scenario), or Nokia will be split in parts / sell the smartphone department.

                What remains to be seen is how Asha will fare – low tier suite of Androids is finally becoming useful and competitive (compared to the s40 in general) and that will, no doubt, have a profound impact on Nokia’s ability to milk the Asha cow. For the sake of Nokia, I hope they have something up their sleeves – there are still at least a year or two left in which one can work profitably with ‘smart’ featurephones, and if something manages to keep Nokia afloat during that time it will be the Asha team, provided they play smart of course. The current smartphone department stands virtually no chance – they will either have to sell it (if they can, that is) or pump serious money into its complete restructuring (money that might be provided by the s40 team) if they hope to survive long-term.

                • who knows says:

                  If they don’t sell more lumias Q1 then in Q4 Nokia are in deep, deep trouble. I’d also admit that I was completely wrong about the wp-strategy. However, from my point of view it looks like Nokia is getting some form of momentum with their new smartphones. Lets see what Nokia brings for MWC before ruling out Q2-sales.

                  I agree with you that Nokia needs to get the smartphone-division under control so that they can figure out a viable longterm strategy for their featurephones. Maybe Firefox OS? Sailfish? My guess is that Nokia will replace it with WP 7.8. If they just could get sd-card to work with WP 7 it could work well enough.

                  • incognito says:

                    Nokia is already in deep, deep trouble – if they don’t sell (significantly!) more in Q1 than in Q4 they will definitely sell the smartphone department, provided somebody (perhaps Microsoft?) is interested in buying it. However, as I said, given 8 models, far wider market penetration/distribution, more competent low-price models (especially the Lumia 620) – I think they’ll manage to sell a couple of millions more in Q1. Unfortunately, I don’t see the trend continuing in Q2.

                    As for long-term strategy, WP is a dead end. It’s dead, Jim, as they say. How will Nokia decide to restructure will largely depend on the profits they can make in their other departments to fuel the smartphone department restructuring. Provided they decide to go down that path, I don’t think they’ll play another high-risk-low-gain game again – they’ll probably opt out for Android. The question is – do they even stand any chance with it now no matter how much money they burn to switch?

                    As for the s40 replacement, if that’s what you were aiming at, WP (7.8) is a dud there as well, unless Microsoft seriously doesn’t rethink their strategy. You can’t mass produce on the low-margin and compete with price with a strictly hardware controlled/restricted platform which you can’t fundamentally modify. And you can’t penetrate low-cost market with high licensing fees. Nor you can sell a seriously restricted, highly data-dependent product to the low-cost target audiences. WP as a replacement for an entry-base ‘smart’ featurephone just cannot work. For Nokia’s sake, I hope they have something else up their sleeve – maybe something they’ve acquired through Smarterphone buyout which they’ve been keeping under wraps…

                    • who knows says:

                      Yes, I was refering to what likely would replace the Asha-series. I do think that Nokia and Microsoft already have an agreement of how much WP 7.8 is going to cost to license (lower fee as time progresses). It definately lies in Microsofts interest to make the low-end platform competitive with android. Even before WP 7 was launched Microsoft was speaking of maintaining a low-end platform and a high-end platform simultaneously. If android devices, with higher specs mind you, can bring down the prices to featurephone prices so can WP 7 as long as Microsoft play ball. Which they will if they know what’s best for them.

                      As for WP (8) as a long term strategy I don’t see it as a dead end. I guess we just have to disagree on this one. We’ll find out later in 2013 how is right.

                    • who knows says:

                      how is right -> who is right :)

            • Vineet says:

              Alright settle down guys. I always said the Nokia’s turnaround quarter was ‘next’ quarter. No not Q1 2013 (or Q2 2013). I literally mean “next” quarter. It will always be the next quarter.

              I think WP will continue to ramp up…slowly and then be spectacularly outsold by the first full quarter of BB10 availability (maybe Q2 2013) and that’s when it will truly be time for introspection. WP will still be on a (slow) upward curve then but they’ll have been beaten by a “ugly” new OS whereas WP has been around for 3 yrs almost (they revealed it in Feb 2010).

              The BB10 sales are not my prediction. You don’t need a prediction. BB just sold 7m smartphones last quarter. Handsets……with the dead legacy BB7 OS! …Even though everyone knows that BB10 is on it’s way for at least a year. Nokia sold 4.4m of the latest, greatest Lumias (except they included every older Lumia as well). So BB10 outselling Lumia in first full quarter of BB10 sales is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

              When that happens, combined with a possible MS Surface phone and the collapse of MS’s Windows 8 Halo strategy, Nokia might add stock Android devices to it’s portfolio and we can all be happy.

              • Oleg Derevenetz says:

                “Nokia might add stock Android devices to it’s portfolio and we can all be happy.”

                I’m not so sure about that :) History (e.g. for HTC) teaches us that Android itself may not help.

                • Vineet says:

                  Nokia + Stock Android will knock it out of the park. All the “conventional wisdom” about Android is just that…..conventional.

                  Others can’t really go stock because they have nothing to differentiate with (Samsung has scale, ecosystem, logistics, components and manufacturing). If you are a white box pusher OEM, you stand no chance. You can easily make a profit selling Android, the OEMs that are failing are doing so because of obvious faults.

                  However Nokia has scale, logistics, manufacturing just like Samsung but on top of that it has Imaging, Offline GPS (this differentiator will not last long) and design (also may not last very long). Besides, as long as it keeps producing WP devices, Nokia will probably never pay royalties to MS for also producing Android (thanks to the nature of the relationship and the war chest of patents it owns itself), this immediately gives it a margin advantage.

                  Also at this stage, simply shipping stock Android devices IS the differentiator (this window too might close soon if Moto gets its act together). HTC and Samsung are too far invested into their software experience to consider going stock unless they are forced to.

                  Nokia really only needs to worry about Motorola (Easy) and Sony when it finally lives up to its potential and becomes another Samsung (not so easy).

                  It’s pretty obvious that gorgeous Nokia devices with competitive strengths in imaging are going to ravage the other Android OEMs IF they ship with stock Android (which will also ensure a 3-6 month lead in software) and they can sell these at much greater margin than even Samsung does.

                  Of course, incognito will hate that coz I’m pretty sure he is no big fan of Android either….:P

                  Repeat after me. Nokia needs to be on the same platform as the market leader. Once on that same platform as everyone else, Nokia has broken down the path to victory to a science (this happened with Symbian, which was admittedly their own platform but then we have watched it repeat with WP). They will certainly repeat the story with Android.

                  The only reason Samsung has a profit monopoly in Android is because Nokia din’t go the Android route.

                  • Pasanen oli hieno mies says:

                    Why would have Nokia succeeded with Android?

                    • Vineet says:

                      Because of all the reasons I outlined above..

                      Nokia has more points of differentiation than anyone else along with many of the advantages Samsung enjoys. Plus they should have gone Stock just to pull out even further ahead.

                      They’d also have more margins than every other Android OEM provided they din’t get extorted by infringement fees for using Android.

                  • Oleg Derevenetz says:

                    Interesting thoughts, but with some logical inconsistencies. For example, why “Nokia needs to be on the same platform as the market leader”? Some time ago, when Symbian was the king, Samsung and other OEMs already tried to follow this route, but they still couldn’t beat Nokia. The only way Samsung could beat Nokia is by choosing DIFFERENT platform than market leader, i.e. Android (not to mention Apple, which choose a similar way somewhat earlier). Now other manufactures of Android-based phones are trying to pursue Samsung by choosing the same old tactics (to be on the same platform as the market leader), and predictably failing. Not sure that Nokia should now choose the same way, by trying to play with Samsung on their own field. History teaches us (once again) that this will not work. BTW, there are lots of Chinese manufacturers busy producing devices with stock Android as well.

                    • Pasanen oli hieno mies says:

                      Maybe Nokia was destined to collapse because Symbian was no longer a viable product?

                    • Vineet says:

                      Actually no. I meant exactly that. That strategy works for Nokia and it DOESN’T work for others and did not work for them with Symbian precisely because it worked so well for Nokia. Out-differentiating, out-innovating, out-producing and out-supplying its rivals in terms of hardware is what Nokia is (was?) good at. If all other things are held constant (*cough* software platform), Nokia will excel.

                      Also the platform needs to be the best one or reasonably good obviously. I’m not advocating they jump on a sinking ship that merely currently has greater market share.

                      Nokia has unique advantages that other OEMs do not. Not all OEMs are equal, the Acers, Dells and HTCs of this world are not the same as Nokia, Samsung or potentially even Sony.

                      Also Android is hardly Samsung’s turf. Samsung’s Touchwiz experience and Google’s stock Android experience seem at odds. I’m not saying Nokia should add its own flavour to Android. Nokia would do much better by just aligning completely with Google vision and elbowing out Samsung.

                      I don’t know of any Chinese OEMs releasing mass market stock Android phones with easy availability globally (or in major western markets). Most don’t even have Google apps and so officially aren’t even ‘Android’

                    • Vineet says:

                      I think you’re alluding to the business strategy concept of competitive strength and not attacking a competitor on their strongest points. But the assumptions here are wrong. You only need to change the game (different platform to flank them) when you can’t take them on their own terms.

                      The situation here is entirely different. On even terms, Nokia can and will win. Also, Android here doesn’t belong to the competitor. There are no software platforms left within Nokia’s own labs. Different is only good when it means somehow better (unique proposition). Different is never good if all it means is different for different’s sake.

                    • Oleg Derevenetz says:

                      @Vineet:

                      “I don’t know of any Chinese OEMs releasing mass market stock Android phones with easy availability globally (or in major western markets)”

                      For example, Meizu or famous ZTE. As I know, both are present in APAC, Europe and USA.

                      “That strategy works for Nokia and it DOESN’T work for others”

                      OK, so your point is that Nokia is better than others by default, because it’s… um… Nokia :) May be, but I don’t think so. Currently, Samsung is better than Nokia in almost all terms – manufacturing, logistics, marketing, etc, etc, etc. All that Nokia currently have to differentiate is photography tech and possibly maps (apart from idiot as a CEO). In my opinion, this is currently not enough to defeat Samsung on the Samsung’s own field. Time will tell who is right :)

                    • Vineet says:

                      @Oleg Derevenetz

                      “OK, so your point is that Nokia is better than others by default, because it’s… um… Nokia”

                      No not at all! I outlined the actual reasons why. Nokia could eke out a margin advantage with Android (just like it sort of has with WP). It could extend this advantage if it ships stock devices (I admit this window will not be open forever but Nokia stock devices will easily be preferred to Chinese OEMs and only Nokia can easily differentiate even stock device – via hardware. Something that low/mid range OEMs including OEMs like Dell, Acer, Asus etc cannot do)

                      Nokia also has better scale, logistics and in-house manufacturing than most. Basically, only Samsung, Sony and a few others can even hope to compete and even then Nokia has several key advantages over them. Vertical integration of components is not that big of a moat for Samsung because similar or equivalent components are available off-the-shelf from other vendors.

                      “All that Nokia currently have to differentiate is photography tech and possibly maps (apart from idiot as a CEO). In my opinion, this is currently not enough to defeat Samsung on the Samsung’s own field. Time will tell who is right”

                      I believe it is when combined with stock Android (faster updates), greater margins on same prices. The imaging advantage will last a fair bit. The maps won’t (game over when Google makes its maps completely available offline) and design may or may not.

                      Think about it, an ATIV S is basically an S3, does it hold a candle to the Lumia 920?

                      And this is when Samsung enjoys equally fast updates on WP.

                      Now take this situation over to Android where Nokia can go stock and why would anyone prefer to buy a GS3 when they could get a “nexus” Lumia 920 with OIS Pureview cam, Wireless charging, offline GPS, great design and construction and that will always get its updates months before the GS3.
                      (Remember the specs wars will not be relevant then since Android does not have core or resolution limitations and the BoM cost of a quad core vs dual core is less than a few dollars)

                      Nokia has already proven time and time again it can muscle out other OEMs, its done this very recently in the WP space even though it arrived late. Its just that right now, its the big fish in a rather small pond.

                  • Dave says:

                    “They’d also have more margins than every other Android OEM provided they din’t get extorted by infringement fees for using Android.”

                    Shove it up your ass man.

                    • Vineet says:

                      I don’t understand your anger? Your issue there is?

                      In case you are just plain stupid, allow me to explain again.

                      Every Android OEM pays Microsoft 10-15$ per Android device. In a world of razor thin margins (Especially for low/mid range OEMs) this is unsustainable and effectively makes Android and WP cost the same.

                      Nokia may not have to pay this fees thanks to their close relationship to MS, their continued WP efforts but mainly, due to their own huge chest of patents which has already mean used (successfully) many times.

              • Bloob says:

                Collapse of the Windows 8 halo effect? Why, it’s been selling reasonably well. The halo effect isn’t something that happens on release day.

        • anders81 says:

          I suggest you take a look to Nok sec filings, you’ll be surprised :) Those numbers I mentioned are already quite official.

          Happy trollings for ya :)

  2. incognito says:

    Poor, poor Finnish people :P Good for Nokia, tho :D Then again, when you look at the chart, you can see at whose expense the gain is achieved :(

  3. xerxes2 says:

    The reality is that low-end Android is kicking S40′s a** and high-end Android is kicking Wp’s a**. Nokias BoD must do something … and fast.

  4. Keith too says:

    Not too shabby, Finland is on the leading edge of a nascent global phenomenon. I was joking but actually it is probably true.

  5. Janne says:

    WMPowerUser or someone had an interesting graph a week or so back (didn’t tip it here because I’d get flamed for it) showing how all Nokia’s platforms combined had fared – they were crashing until Lumia came and levelled them to a little below iOS/Android levels… So no, the share is not just coming out of Nokia base levels, otherwise the loss tangent would have remained the same instead of leveling.

    Lumia is eating into iOS especially. Probably a little Android too. In Finland, that is.

  6. migo says:

    It’s a good start. Having a few countries where usage is strong is good to build from. It means they’re doing things right for a certain segment of the population.

    I’d like to see what the WP/Lumia stats are like for similar countries, like Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

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